Probability of Getting Blackjack and Other 21 Odds

What are the Odds of Winning Blackjack?

Blackjack odds depend on a number of factors, so you’ll have to calculate them on a case-by-case basis. The variant you’re playing, the number of cards on the table, and how many decks are being used, as well as the number of cards in them, all influence the odds.

Let’s begin with the odds of getting natural blackjack in both single and double-deck games.

Single Deck

There are 52 cards in a single-deck blackjack game. Four of them are aces, and 16 are 10-value cards. You’ll need an ace and a 10-value card to get natural blackjack.

The probability of drawing an ace as your first card is 4/52 or 1/13.

You’ll then need a 10-value card. The probability of getting one is 16/51.

The math then goes like this:

Source: ChatGPT by OpenAI

So, the probability of getting natural blackjack from a single-deck game is approximately 2.41%.

Double Deck

In double-deck blackjack, there are 104 cards, including eight aces and 32 10-value cards.

The probability of drawing an ace is 8/104 or 1/13 again. With 103 cards left, the odds of getting a 10-value card are 32/103.

The math for getting a natural 21 in double-deck blackjack looks like this:

Source: ChatGPT by OpenAI

Here, we see that the probability of getting a natural 21 from a double-deck game is roughly 2.39%.

In summary, the odds of getting natural blackjack are very similar in both game variants, but there’s a slight edge in single-deck blackjack.

Player’s Odds Explained

After you’ve been playing blackjack for a while, you’ll develop an intuitive feel for both the players’ and dealers’ probability of busting. Until you develop that sixth sense, knowing the literal odds can be helpful.

Many blackjack strategies will encourage you to stand on 16 or above and hit if below that. Now, you can clearly see why. Once you have an initial hand worth 16, the odds make it more likely than not that you’ll bust if you request another card.

Dealer’s Odds Explained

Now, let’s look at the dealers’ probability of busting in the same way.

How to Play Bad Hands in BJ

Experienced blackjack players know there are ‘hard hands’ that make it more difficult to win. Don’t panic when you get these; understand the math behind them, and you’ll know what to do. That’s what this section is all about.

House Edge in Blackjack

Have you ever wondered how it’s possible for pro blackjack players to make money at the game on a reasonably consistent basis? This can happen because 21 has a low house edge.

The house edge is the mathematical advantage a casino has in a given game. For example, in keno, the edge can be as high as 25%, meaning the casino can make up to $25 out of every $100 wagered. That’s a huge profit!

In blackjack, the house edge is relatively small, between 0.5% and 1%. That means the casino will only make between $0.50 and $1 for every $100 wagered.

You can lower the house edge in blackjack to a rock bottom 0.5% by using basic blackjack strategy flawlessly. Blackjack has the lowest house edge in the house when played optimally, so it’s to your advantage to learn how to do just that.

How to Use Blackjack Odds and Probability to Your Advantage

If you’ve read this far, it has been a learning experience regarding blackjack odds and probability. It’s now time to distill this down into some actionable, practical tips on how to take advantage of what we have learned.

Understanding Player’s Bust Probabilities

Knowing the probabilities of busting with different hand values can guide your decisions on whether to hit or stand. Here’s a detailed breakdown:

Hand Value of 11 or Less: Probability of busting is 0%, so it’s always safe to hit.

Hand Value of 12 to 16: The bust probability increases significantly. For example, with a hand value of 16, there’s a 62% chance of busting if you hit. This is why many strategies recommend standing on 16, especially if the dealer shows a higher chance of busting.

Hand Value of 17 or More: The probability of busting becomes very high (69% and above), so standing is generally the best option.

Dealer’s Bust Probabilities

The dealer’s up card gives you clues about the dealer’s chances of busting. Here’s how to interpret this:

Dealer Shows 2 to 6: The dealer has a higher probability of busting (35.30% to 42.89%). In these cases, it’s often beneficial to stand on lower hands (12-16) and let the dealer take the risk of busting.

Dealer Shows 7 to Ace: The dealer’s bust probability is lower (11.65% to 25.99%). You need to be more cautious and might need to hit on lower hand values to improve your chances of beating the dealer.

Strategy Adjustments

Based on the probabilities, here are some strategy adjustments:

Basic Strategy Chart: Use a basic strategy chart. It dictates the best action for every possible hand combination. This chart takes into account both your hand value and the dealer’s up card.

Standing on Soft 17: Some strategies suggest standing on a soft 17 (A-6) if the dealer shows a lower card (2-6) due to the dealer’s higher bust probability.

Doubling Down: Doubling down is to your advantage when you have a strong hand (like 10 or 11), and the dealer shows a high bust probability card (2-6). This increases your potential return when you have a high chance of winning.

 Practical Application

Here’s how you can apply these insights during a game.

Observe the Dealer’s Up Card – If the dealer shows a 2-6, they are more likely to bust. Stand on weaker hands like 13-16. If the dealer shows a 7-Ace, they are less likely to bust. Be more aggressive in hitting until you reach a safer hand value (17 or higher).

Use the Basic Strategy Chart – Follow the chart to make the best statistical decision for each hand. This reduces the house’s edge and improves your chances of winning. You can use this for both live dealer blackjack as well as digital games, but note that some of the live games with extra features like bonus rounds will change things significantly.

Responsible Blackjack Gambling

Gambling is supposed to be a fun pastime and is not a way to make money reliably. If you or a loved one has lost control, you may be suffering from gambling addiction. Please use the following resources to get help.

• Gamblers Anonymous
• National Council on Problem Gambling

Probability of Winning Blackjack Summary

This has been a broad overview of the probability of winning at blackjack. You’ve learned the odds of getting blackjack, the players’ and dealers’ hands, how to play bad hands, and some practical tips to tie it all together.

The blackjack probability of winning will always depend on several factors, such as the variant you’re playing, the number of cards, decks, etc. However, with what we’ve learned here, you’re more than equipped to increase your chances of winning classic games.
Knowing what to do is one thing, but nothing beats practice. Choose a safe, legit casino site from our list and apply what you have learned.