Political Odds: Will Biden Pardon Liz Cheney Before Leaving Office?
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Donald Trump is just weeks away from taking office, and rumors are swirling about who President Biden pardons before leaving office. The President made sure to pardon his son after the Democrats lost the 2024 election, and many other allies are hoping for the same fate.
Keep reading to see the latest odds from top political betting sites on who Biden will pardon before leaving office. I will also discuss the top prospects for a presidential pardon and make my predictions for this unique political future market.
Why Was Hunter Biden Pardoned?
President-elect Trump promised a pardon to over a thousand insurrections during his campaign. Despite the rhetoric from their candidate, President Biden caused an uproar in right-wing media when he pardoned his son, Hunter Biden.
The President’s son was convicted on gun and tax charges in California and Delaware. Biden had previously pledged not to pardon his son, but he reversed course after Trump won the 2024 election. Trump expressed a desire to use the justice system to attack his political enemies, which undoubtedly affected Biden’s decision to pardon his son.
What Is a Preemptive Pardon?
Presidential pardons are typically given after a person has been charged or convicted of a crime. However, Trump’s plans to use the justice system to pursue his enemies have raised the question of preemptive pardons.
According to Politico, Biden is considering preemptive pardons for those who have opposed Trump. Pardoning these individuals before he leaves office would be one way for Biden to protect Trump’s critics from the president-elect is sworn in.
Can Biden Pardon Trump?
- Biden to pardon Trump (+600)
- Biden to not pardon Trump (-1500)
Another popular talking point this political season is whether Biden would pardon Trump. The president-elect faces a slew of felony charges in multiple states. According to some pundits, pardoning Trump could help settle some of the tension between the two major parties.
BetOnline lists Biden at -1500 to pardon Trump, while the “yes” option is available at +600. Pardoning Trump would have some merit if it were done before the election or if Democrats had won. However, now that Trump can pardon himself when he takes office, I doubt Biden risks angering the Democratic base by issuing the pardon himself.
Who Will Biden Pardon Before Leaving Office?
- Liz Cheney (+110)
- Bennie Thompson (+140)
- Anthony Fauci (+175)
- Robert Menendez (+400)
- Mark Milley (+800)
- Sam Bankman-Fried (+1000)
- Julian Assange (+1600)
- Edward Snowden (+1600)
- Sean “P Diddy” Combs (+5000)
BetOnline offers odds on nearly a dozen potential recipients of a presidential pardon from Biden before the President leaves office. Liz Cheney has the best odds at +110, with Bennie Thompson (+140) a close second. Other options include Anthony Fauci (+175), Sam Bankman-Fried (+1000), and P Diddy (+5000).
Liz Cheney (+110)
Former Congresswoman Liz Cheney is the betting favorite at +110 to be pardoned by Biden before he leaves office. Cheney has been one of Trump’s most vocal opponents from within the Republican party.
Her opposition to the former and future President cost Cheney her congressional seat. Since leaving office, Cheney has continued to be a thorn in Trump’s side every chance she gets.
Cheney attempted to help Vice President Kamala Harris win the 2024 election by recruiting support for her from disgruntled republican voters. Her actions over the years have clearly gotten under Trump’s skin, with the President-elect stating Cheney should be in jail. She is a prime candidate for a pardon if Biden decides to issue them preemptively.
Bennie Thompson (+140)
Another member of Congress who could receive a preemptive pardon from Biden is Bennie Thompson. The soon-to-be 77-year-old was instrumental in the January 6th Committee. The NAACP also filed a lawsuit against Trump on Thompson’s behalf related to the insurrection.
Trump has said that everyone on the January 6th Committee, which includes Thomspon, should be in jail. Thompson, like Cheney, is a prominent political enemy of Trump, making him a prime candidate for a preemptive pardon.
Anthony Fauci (+175)
Not everyone who could be preemptively pardoned is a politician. Anthony Fauci, the face of the COVID-19 vaccine, is listed at +175 to be pardoned by Biden. Fauci helped create and promote the vaccine under Trump and Biden.
One of Trump’s most significant accomplishments during his first presidency was the vaccine. However, the anti-vaccine conspiracy theories that run rampant among his MAGA base make it impossible for Trump to take credit for it.
Attacking Fauci would help Trump reaffirm support among his base. There is little risk to Trump as he has already benefited from Fauci’s work during his first presidency. However, the president-elect will be powerless if Biden pardons Fauci.
Mark Milley (+800)
BetOnline has odds on dark horses to receive a pardon from President Biden, too. For example, retired Army general Mark Milley is listed at 8-1 odds to receive a pardon from Biden.
Milley was the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff from October 2019 until his retirement at the end of September 2023. His time in the office stretched across the end of Trump’s term and the better part of Biden’s.
Trump picked him to be the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, but Milley is one of several high-ranking military officials who has criticized the former President. In the book War by Bob Woodward, Milley is quoted as calling Trump “a fascist to the core.” Pardoning Milley would help protect the decorated general from Trump’s wrath.
Sam Bankman-Fried (+1000)
One of the keys to Trump’s win in the 2024 election was his temporary alliance with tech bros, namely Elon Musk. However, Trump’s relationship with Musk is already deteriorating. Trump could try to retain his support from the crypto sector by pardoning Sam Bankman-Fried.
Bankman-Fried is listed at +1800 to be pardoned by Trump in the President-elect’s first 100 days in office. However, SBF is only 10-1 to be pardoned by Biden.
SBF has donated substantial sums to both parties, but most of his contributions were to Democratic candidates and causes. On the other hand, pardoning Bankman-Fried would offer little to no benefit for Biden or the Democrats.
Sean “P Diddy” Combs (+5000)
Pardoning celebrities is nothing new for outgoing Presidents. For instance, Trump pardoned Kodak Black and Lil’ Wayne in the waning hours of his presidency.
There are many celebrities Biden could pardon, but one of the few in this betting market is Sean “P Diddy” Combs. Diddy has been involved with both major political parties over the years. He has also been Trump’s “good friend” for over a decade.
BetOnline lists Diddy at +5000 to be pardoned by Biden in the next month. He has the longest odds of any available option in this futures market. Given how recently Diddy’s alleged crimes became public, I doubt Biden would risk giving him a pardon.
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Who Will Biden Pardon Before Leaving Office?
As you can see, there are multiple exciting options for this Biden pardon betting market. However, Biden has less than a month left in his presidency, so he cannot pardon everyone.
Here are my predictions for who Biden will pardon before Trump’s inauguration.
- Liz Cheney (+110)
- Bennie Thompson (+140)
- Anthony Fauci (+175)
- Mark Milley (+800)
Cheney was a key part of Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign, and even though Harris lost, Cheney earned plenty of favors from the Democrats. Thompson spearheaded the January 6th committee and will undoubtedly be targeted by Trump. Fauci and Milley worked for both administrations, but their criticisms of the President-elect make them likely targets as well.
Who Do You Think Biden Will Pardon Next?
Will President Biden issue more pardons before leaving office? A pardon is one of the most powerful, and controversial, weapons in a President’s arsenal. Read the guide above to see the latest odds on who Biden will pardon before leaving office.
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