Will Biden Drop Out? Updated Odds and Analysis
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Joe Biden’s 2024 election odds took a major hit after the first presidential debate. The President struggled early in the debate, and despite picking up steam in the second half, many viewers questioned Biden’s ability to continue his 2024 campaign.
In the immediate aftermath of the debate, many liberal pundits and Democratic leaders called for President Biden to step aside. But will Biden drop out of the 2024 presidential race? Keep reading to see the latest odds and scenarios for potential Bien replacements according to top political betting sites.
Joe Biden 2024 Election Dropout Odds
Biden’s odds of winning the 2024 presidential election faded after his poor debate performance. Bovada Sportsbook currently has Biden listed at +300, a distant second to Republican nominee Donald Trump (-175). The sportsbook also has Biden listed at +185 to drop out of the 2024 presidential race.
According to those odds, Biden is more likely to drop out of the race than he is to beat Trump. If Joe Biden does drop out, then the Democrats will need to find a replacement quickly. Here are the odds on potential replacements for Biden for the 2024 election.
| Potential Biden Replacement | Odds to Be Democratic Candidate |
| Kamala Harris | +1000 |
| Michelle Obama | +1200 |
| Gavin Newsom | +2000 |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +2000 |
| Hillary Clinton | +4000 |
| JB Pritzker | +10000 |
| Josh Shapiro | +10000 |
| Wes Moore | +10000 |
| Elizabeth Warren | +12500 |
Despite the growing pressure for him to drop out, Biden is the favorite to be the Democratic candidate at -350 in this market. He is also listed at -350 against the field (+245) in the latest odds. If the president does drop out, there are numerous potential replacements for Biden.
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Kamala Harris (+1000)
Kamala Harris is the clear favorite to replace Biden on the 2024 Democratic ticket. She is currently Biden’s Vice President and has the name recognition that few others in the Democratic party can match. Both will be important if she wants to beat Trump, the current 2024 election favorite.
Her odds of winning the Democratic nomination have faded from +800 to +1000 in recent days, but they could shorten again as the summer goes on. Other potential replacements, such as Gavin Newsom, have also faded in recent days.
Harris succeeding Biden would also be the easiest way to replace the current President on the ticket. Biden is listed at -750 to finish his first term as President, and Biden is unlikely to be impeached. However, it would be relatively easy to pivot from Biden to Harris in the coming weeks.
Michelle Obama (+1200)
After Harris, the options for replacing Biden if he drops out become unclear. In the days immediately following the debate, Former First Lady Michelle Obama was listed at +1000 to be the Democratic nominee. Her odds have faded slightly to +1200, but she still has the third-best odds after Biden and Harris to be the nominee.
Like Harris, Michelle would benefit from being a figure that voters would easily recognize. She would also benefit from not being as directly associated with the current administration. Michelle could, in theory, reenergize voters who have become disenchanted with the democrat party in recent years.
On the other hand, Michelle has the least political experience of any of the top replacements if Biden drops out. She even has less experience as an elected public official than Trump.
Gretchen Whitmer (+2000)
Michigan has been a bright spot for Democrats in recent years due in large part to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Her success as Governor has caused many pundits to float Whitmer as a potential replacement for Biden. She is currently listed at +2000 to win the Democratic nomination after peaking at +1400 odds after the debate.
Whitmer has disavowed rumors she will replace Biden, but that could change if Biden Drops out of the race. The Michigan Governor has publicly supported Biden as the nominee even after his poor debate performance. Her loyalty could be rewarded in the form of a nomination if Biden does not run.
She has been in the news in recent years while battling Trump’s MAGA constituents, but Whitmer still lacks the name recognition of other potential replacements. That would put Whitmer at a disadvantage if she had to try and rally support for a presidential bid on short notice at the upcoming Democratic National Convention.
Gavin Newsom (+2000)
Another governor who has been suggested as a replacement for the President if Biden drops out is Gavin Newsom. The California Governor was listed at +1000 at the end of June to win the Democratic nomination. In a matter of hours, though. Newsom’s odds in the market faded from +1000 to +2000.
Newsom was one of the biggest supporters of Biden immediately following the debate. He was on-site in Atlanta and fielded questions about Biden’s performance after the debate ended. Newsom has also been suggested as a replacement for Biden, but his recent slide in odds suggests that Newsom is no longer the best choice.
Like Whitmer, Newsom has publicly supported the President. However, if the DNC decides to replace Biden on this November’s ticket, Newsom will undoubtedly be a candidate to watch. Interestingly, he is tied with Obama and Harris at +1000 to win the popular vote this November, behind only Trump (+140) and Biden (+165).
Hillary Clinton (+4000)
After Newsom, there is a sharp fall-off in the odds to be the Democratic nominee. Hilary Clinton has the next-best odds at +4000. Clinton already lost to Trump in 2016, and she has largely been out of the public and political eye since.
Clinton is a recognizable figure, though, and has already won the Democratic nomination once. Bovada has two special wagers available for Clinton’s political future. She is listed at +2000 to run a presidential campaign this year and at +800 to run a campaign for the 2028 election.
There are candidates that have more public appeal with younger voters. However, the DNC has shown before that it will err on the side of the establishment at the cost of young voters. Many believe that is why Clinton was the nominee in 2016, and it could help her win the nomination again.
JB Pritzker (+10000)
There is another significant drop off in odds after Clinton, with three potential Biden replacements tied at +10000. The first is JB Pritzker, the current Governor of Illinois. Pritzker’s family owns the Hyatt chain of hotels, and he is worth roughly $3.5 billion.
His net worth could give Pritzker an advantage over other potential nominees, especially in terms of funding a campaign on short notice. However, it would also be challenging for a billionaire to appeal to liberal voters across the country.
Josh Shapiro (+10000)
Another candidate listed at 100-1 to win the Democratic nomination is Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. The Keystone State will play a key part in the 2024 election and has been one of the most contested swing states in recent elections.
In theory, Shapiro could help the Democrats secure PA this November. However, he does not have the national name recognition as many other potential Biden replacements with better odds.
Wes Moore (+10000)
Wes Moore, the Governor of Maryland, is also listed at +10000. Moore is a retired Army Captain, which could make up for his lack of political experience in terms of recruiting voters.
Moore is, at best, a center-left Democrat. He could attract support from conservative voters who are looking for an alternative to Trump. However, it would be challenging for Moore to attract progressive voters who want a true left-leaning candidate.
Will Joe Biden Drop Out?
The official message from the Biden camp and the Democratic party has been that Biden will not drop out of the 2024 race. Unfortunately, I am inclined to believe them, and Biden being on the ticket becomes more and more likely with each passing day.
Could Biden drop out of the race? Absolutely, but I doubt it will happen. If Biden does step aside, I believe Kamala Harris is the best bet to replace him on short notice.
Harris has shown that she can be a part of a ticket that can defeat Trump. Also, the transition from pushing a Biden-Harris ticket to a Harris-led ticket would be a relatively easy one to make on short notice. If she had a strong vice president, such as Whitmer or Newsom, Harris could give Trump a run for his money in November.
Pick: Kamala Harris (+1000)
Joe Biden 2024 Election Dropout Odds
Will Joe Biden drop out? After a horrible showing in the first presidential debate, many have called for the 81-year-old Biden to step aside. However, the President has defied pundits thus far, and all signs point toward Biden being on the Democratic ticket this November.
A lot can change between now and the election, though, and speculation about Biden dropping out is likely to continue. Check out the odds above to see the odds on his potential replacements if Biden does drop out of the 2024 election. After reading my predictions, sign up at Bovada Sportsbook to bet on the latest odds on the upcoming presidential election.
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