Will Biden Be the Democratic Nominee in 2024? New Swing State Polling Favors Trump

Author ImageAuthor: | Last Updated: November 2023
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Will Biden win in 2024? The latest polling data shows that presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in many swing states.

Those recent polls have caused the odds at political betting sites to shift, as well. Some pundits are even going as far as questioning whether Biden will step down as the Dems’ nominee. If he does, then the Democrats will need to find a replacement, and fast.

Keep reading to see the latest odds on who will win the 2024 Democratic nomination. I will break down the latest odds and polling data for candidates in both parties.

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Will Biden be the Nominee in 2024?

Joe Biden is the sitting President, and he will have the 2024 nomination if he wants it. The Democrats are not hosting primary debates, which is standard for the incumbent party. However, healthy concerns and dipping poll numbers could lead Biden to step down before the election next year.

Here are the current odds to be the Democratic nominee in 2024, courtesy of BetUS Sportsbook:

  • Joe Biden (-300)
  • Gavin Newsom (+250)
  • Kamala Harris (+800)
  • Michelle Obama (+900)
  • Elizabeth Warren (+2800)

President Biden (-300) is still the favorite to win the nomination. However, he is not as heavy of a favorite as Trump is to win the GOP nomination. Interestingly enough, Trump is listed at -900 to be the Republican nominee.

We have also seen Gavin Newsom’s odds have shortened significantly in recent months. BetUS had Newsom listed at +500 at the end of September. Newsom was listed ahead of Michelle Obama, who was available at +700 odds but has since faded to +900.

In all likelihood, Biden will be atop the Democratic Party’s presidential ticket next fall. That doesn’t mean it’s a certainty, however, especially with a year still left in the race.

New Biden vs. Trump Polls Worry Democrats

Polling data plays a huge part in the build-up to election season. Parties even use it to see which candidates qualify for their primary debates. In most cycles, polls provide an accurate look at which candidate will win the upcoming election.

That is one reason why the latest polling data is worrisome for the Democrats. A poll in six battleground states showed Trump leading in five of them. This led to a sobering moment for Democrats.

The states in the survey included:

  • Arizona
  • Georgia
  • Michigan
  • Nevada
  • Pennsylvania
  • Wisconsin

The only one of the above states that Biden won in the latest poll was Wisconsin. Biden won all six states in the 2020 election. His ability to flip AZ, GA, MI, PA, and WI was a major reason behind his victory the first time he faced Trump.

Losing the above states would deal a huge blow to Biden’s chances of winning re-election. The latest polling data has allowed Trump to extend his lead on Biden at the top real money betting sites.

Here are the latest odds to win the 2024 US Presidential election:

  • Donald Trump (+140)
  • Joe Biden (+180)
  • Gavin Newsom (+600)
  • Nikki Haley (+1400)
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (+1800)

Trump overtook Biden for the top spot back in September. The former President’s odds have continued to shorten, widening the gap between him and Biden.

Why are Trump’s Odds Improving?

Former President Trump is in a heap of legal trouble. He faces dozens of charges in multiple states and could end up in prison. Despite Trump’s legal issues, his odds of winning the 2024 election have increased.

Trump’s ongoing legal battles have done little to shake the support of his MAGA voter base. Instead, his supporters seem even more motivated to support the former President.

In fact, Trump is such a heavy favorite to win the nomination, that he has not even participated in the GOP primaries. Instead, Trump has participated in interviews or held rallies to counterprogram the debates.

Even if Trump’s trials go south and he ends up in jail, that would not disqualify him from running in the 2024 election. It may cost him the GOP nomination, but he could always run as a third-party candidate. MAGA voters make up a large portion of the GOP voter base, which is one reason why Trump is still allowed to run for the nomination in the first place.

Why are Biden’s Odds Fading?

Trump voters have made it clear that they will vote for the former President no matter what. President Biden does not have that same luxury when it comes to democratic voters.

For many, Biden was a one-time solution to prevent Trump from winning another term. During his time as President, Biden’s approval rating has consistently dropped. Recent events have also had a huge negative impact on Biden’s chances to get re-elected.

The Israel-Palestine conflict, inflation, and a general lack of confidence in Biden have caused the President to slip in recent polls. He also faces the challenge of motivating liberals to vote in the first place. Unlike Republican voters, Democrats do not always turn out in force on election day.

But it is not all doom and gloom for the Dems. Biden still has a year to turn things around, and the accuracy of the recent polls could also be called into question.

Are the Latest 2024 Election Polls Accurate?

The accuracy of polling data should always be examined when considering its results. The latest polls showing Trump leading Biden in key states are no exception.

Some factors to consider when evaluating polling date include:

  • The number of participants
  • Who funded the poll?
  • Are the participants registered voters?

All of the factors above contribute to the accuracy of a poll. For instance, a survey conducted only in a red state would likely favor Trump. Alternatively, a survey funded by a Democratic think tank would likely have questions written in a way so support would skew toward Biden.

Could Biden Drop Out?

No polling data is perfect, but the recent results show some troubling results for Democrats. If the trend continues and Biden’s approval rating continues to drop, he could drop out of the race altogether.

If Biden does step down, then the Dems would need to find a replacement. Based on the current odds, only one candidate is in a position to stand a chance against Trump. California Gov. Gavin Newsom has the experience and platform to step up on short notice.

Why Would Biden Step Down as the Democratic Nominee?

Currently, the Democrats are pushing ahead with Biden running again in 2024. However, he will be turning 81 years old in just over a week. Biden’s age is just one factor that could lead to him stepping aside for another candidate.

According to Forbes, Biden’s approval rating recently hit a seven-month low of 39%. If his approval rating continues to decline, then it may be in the best interest of the party to run another candidate.

Biden also has to continue to deal with attacks from Republicans, including Trump and his MAGA allies, for another year. Their latest attacks included an attempt to impeach the President. While Biden is not likely to leave office via impeachment (+900), that will not stop the GOP from trying.

Will Gavin Newsom Replace Biden as the Democratic Candidate in 2024?

If Biden does decide to step down, then I think the most likely candidate to be his replacement is Gavin Newsom. The California Gov. has emerged as one of the most popular leaders in the party. He has even publicly sparred with prospective GOP nominee, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Also, Newsom has the second-best odds of any Democrat to win the 2024 Presidential election. He is currently listed at +600, behind only Biden and Trump.

Can Newsom Win the 2024 Presidential Election?

Newsom’s chances of actually winning the election would largely depend on when the potential switch happened. If the Democrats wait too long, Newsom will not have enough time to campaign.

There are other factors to consider, too. For instance, if Biden does decide not to run for re-election, then there will be other challengers for the nomination. The party needs to give itself enough time to hold fair primary debates to decide on a candidate. Newsom would also need time to sell himself to voters who are unfamiliar with him.

Another major factor is who wins the GOP nomination. Trump’s MAGA voters would give him a huge advantage over Newsom. If he is forced to run third-party, though, Trump could be beaten.

I think Newsome would defeat DeSantis, Haley, or any of the other potential GOP nominees. If they are on the ticket instead of Trump, then the GOP base will likely be split. Newsom also does not have the same baggage as Biden, which could help reinvigorate demoralized liberal voters to participate in the election.

Who Will Be the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2024?

Recent events have more and more pundits wondering if Biden will be the nominee in 2024. He is still favored to win the Democratic nomination, but concerns are mounting for the current President. If he does step down, the odds at BetUS Sportsbook favor Gavin Newsom to replace Biden on the 2024 ballot.

Newsom isn’t the worst wager if you’re looking for a long-shot bet capable of paying off, but there is a reason Biden is still the favorite. It would take a lot more poor polling in the coming months for the incumbent to actually drop out of the race.

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About the Author
Shaun Stack Editor

Shaun Stack is a senior writer at GamblingSites.org. His gambling articles have appeared in the Daily Herald, Space Coast Daily, and NJ 101.5. He’s a football betting expert, a Survivor fan, and a skilled blackjack gambler. Shaun is a native of Kansas City but now lives in Pennsylvania and follows the Pittsburgh Steelers religiously.

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