What Are the Odds Trump Goes to Jail?
Author: 
What are the odds Trump goes to jail? The former President is currently the favorite to win the 2024 election. However, he has spent most of the last year entrenched in multiple legal battles.
Betting on politics online, including wagering on the latest odds Trump goes to jail, is easy to do with the right sportsbook. Keep reading to see the updated odds for Trump potentially going to jail, as well as where you can wager to get the most competitive odds.
Odds Trump Goes to Jail
July 5 Update
Former President Donald Trump has suffered several legal defeats in the last year. However, the Supreme Court of the US recently ruled that Trump has full impunity for official acts committed when he was President. Check out the table below to see how the recent ruling has affected Trump’s odds of serving jail time in the new future, according to BetOnline Sportsbook.
| Wager | Trump Jail Odds | Previous Odds |
| Trump to serve jail time before 2025 | Yes (+600) | Yes (+800) |
| Trump to serve jail time before 2026 | Yes (+225), No (-350) | Yes (+250), No (-400) |
Trump to Serve Jail Time Before 2025
Despite the recent SCOTUS ruling, Trump’s odds of serving jail time before the end of the year have shortened from +800 to +600 in recent weeks. This is due in large part to his guilty verdicts in his New York hush money trial. Trump was found guilty on all 34 counts in that trial, and his sentencing hearing has been rescheduled for September 18th.
The issues in that particular case concern Trump’s actions during his 2016 presidential campaign. Trump struggled to adhere to the judge’s gag order in that trial, which could have a major impact on his pending sentence.
After the sentence is handed down, Trump and his legal team will have a chance to appeal it. However, Trump will also need to ensure that he does not violate the portion of the gag order that is still in place. Otherwise, Trump could be found in contempt and sent to jail.
Donald Trump to Serve Jail Time Before 2026
Trump’s odds of going to jail before 2026 have also shortened slightly. He was listed at +250 to serve jail time before the end of next year. BetOnline now has Trump listed at +225 in this market, with the “no” option fading slightly from -400 to -350.
There is a chance that Trump will go to jail before the election. However, if he makes it through 2024 without serving jail time, then his chances of going to jail depend entirely on the outcome of the 2024 election.
Trump remains the favorite to win the election, especially now that many are calling for President Biden to step down after his poor debate performance. If Trump wins the election and avoids jail time this year, then his chances of going to jail before 2026 are near zero.
Does Trump Have Presidential Immunity?
The recent SCOTUS ruling gives Trump immunity for official acts he committed as President, but how does it affect his guilty verdicts in New York? The crimes Trump was convicted of in that case occurred before Trump was president. However, Trump’s legal team is pushing the idea that his newly confirmed immunity should result in a new trial.
Judge Juan Merchan has agreed to delay sentencing in that case from July 11th to September 18th. Judge Merchan also has to decide whether the evidence used to convict Trump is now inadmissible due to the former President’s immunity. By the time of the new sentencing hearing, Trump will be confirmed as the GOP nominee.
May 6th Trump Jail Odds Update
We still do not know who Trump’s running mate will be in the fall. However, Trump’s VP search could be delayed following a major update in one of his ongoing criminal trials.
Trump’s Manhattan trial for alleged hush money payments took a turn this week. Judge Juan M. Merchant threatened to hold the former President in contempt if he continued to violate his gag order. If the judge follows through on his promise, then Trump could spend time behind bars before this year’s election.
Here is how the latest proceedings have changed some of the betting odds for Trump going to jail.
| Wager | Trump Jail Odds | Previous Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Will Trump serve jail time before 2025? | Yes (+800) | Yes (+750) |
| Will Trump serve jail time before 2026? | Yes (+250)
No (-400) | Yes (+200)
No (-300) |
| Trump to cut a plea deal | +600 | +600 |
Will Trump Serve Jail Time Before 2025?
Despite his actions so far, Trump’s odds of serving jail time before the end of the end of the year have faded slightly from +750 to +800. Ultimately, the possibility of Trump serving time before the end of the year appears to hinge on two factors:
- Does Trump continue to violate his gag order
- Will Judge Merchan follow through on holding Trump in contempt of court
Even if the judge does hold Trump in contempt, the former president could still avoid jail time. There are usually monetary fines imposed before jail time is assigned. The judge could forego fines and jump right to putting Trump behind bars, though.
Given Trump’s history and his actions in this case, I think he will continue to ignore the gag order. At 8-1 odds, I think it is worth betting a small amount on this wager.
Will Trump Serve Jail Time Before 2026?
Trump’s odds of serving jail time before 2026 have also faded. He is still the favorite to win the 2024 election, and it would be even more challenging to sentence him if he is back in the Oval Office.
TRUMP: “It’s a ridiculous case. I did nothing wrong—The judge is totally conflicted. He’s taking my constitutional right away to speak.. It’s a fake trial. They have no case.. This is a Biden trial.” pic.twitter.com/s55ibvEJDl
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) May 6, 2024
If Trump is re-elected, then the window for sending him to jail will likely shut after he is sworn into office in January. The “yes” option odds are also lower than on the bet above.
Still, at +250, the yes bet does offer good value, and you get the benefit of 12 extra months for your wager to hit. If Trump loses in November, then the cases against him would be able to continue with little to no restrictions. I would take the yes option in this wager.
Trump to Cut a Plea Deal With Prosecutors
Trump’s odds of cutting a deal with prosecutors have remained steady at 6-1. A deal could guarantee that Trump avoids jail time, but it would also require him to admit fault in the case.
I do not think Trump will accept a deal unless he loses the election. Serving jail time would only further motivate his supporters to vote, so he is not incentivized to accept the deal.
Also, nothing would prevent him from continuing to run for President. With that in mind, I would continue to avoid this wager for now.
Original
Donald Trump is the favorite to win the 2024 presidential election. Trump may beat Biden, but he has to make it through several legal battles first. Here are the latest odds for Trump to serve jail time in the coming years, courtesy of BetUS.
Trump to Serve Jail Time Before 2025
- Yes (+750)
We are a fourth of the way through 2024 already, and Trump has avoided jail time so far. However, with nine months left in the year, the former President is not out of the woods yet. BetUS has Trump listed at +750 to serve jail time before 2025.
I’m not completely convinced that Trump fully understands this Judge will decide what his sentence will be if he loses and whether he gets to stay out of jail pending appeal. This is a criminal case. pic.twitter.com/DcLPSEmBLN
— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) March 31, 2024
My concern with this wager lies mostly with the deadline. The first quarter of the year is already over, and Trump is not close to going to jail at this point.
On the other hand, Trump still has multiple ongoing court battles. The legal system can be slow at times, but the cases against Trump have been open for a while. He has publicly attacked judges and their family members online and could be found in contempt of court and sent to jail.
Will Trump Go to Jail Before 2026?
- Yes (+200)
- No (-300)
Top sports betting sites for politics also offer odds on whether Trump will go to jail before 2026. Unlike the market above, you can also wager on a “no” option for this bet. Trump avoiding jail time before 2026 is the favorite at -300.
Extending the deadline by one year more than doubles the time you have for Trump to go to jail and win this wager. However, it also significantly decreases the payout odds. The “yes” option for this bet is listed at just +200, compared to the +750 odds for the first bet.
Another issue to consider is that Trump could be elected and take office before the end of 2025. If he does become President again, then it is unlikely that Trump will serve jail time before the start of 2026.
Is Trump Going to Accept a Plea Deal?
- Yes (+600)
There is also the possibility of Trump accepting a plea deal in order to avoid jail time. BetUS has Trump listed at +600 to accept a plea deal from state or federal prosecutors. There is not a specific case named for this prop wager.
“Donald Trump is inciting violence… If he was any other defendant, he would be thrown back in jail.” David Jolly reacts to Justice Reggie Walton’s extraordinary rebuke of Trump’s attack on Judge Juan Merchan’s daughter #saturdayshow pic.twitter.com/kMeT4Udl1V
— The Saturday/Sunday Show with Jonathan Capehart (@weekendcapehart) March 30, 2024
I like the fact that no case is specified, but I doubt that Trump will accept a plea deal before the 2024 election. Trump would have to admit fault as part of a plea deal. With that in mind, I do not think Trump will consider a plea deal unless he has no other choice.
If you are considering one of the above bets, do not dismiss the possibility of a plea deal. A plea deal with either state or federal prosecutors would count toward this bet.
Should Trump’s losing streak in indictment cases continue, I could see him taking a plea deal to avoid jail time. However, I think that the plea deal would have to come after the 2024 election. Also, I believe he would have to lose the election before he considered a plea deal.
More Trump Legal Betting Odds
BetUS is one of the top sportsbooks for betting on politics. So, it should come as no surprise that the site is offering other props relating to Trump’s ongoing court cases. Here are three more futures wagers involving the latest Trump indictment odds.
Trump to Be Cleared on First 4 Indictments Before 2025
- Yes (+800)
One prop wager that you can make for Trump’s indictments is that he will be cleared of all four sets of charges. BetUS has this wager listed at +800 odds. According to the odds, Trump is more likely to go to jail before 2025 (+750) than to be cleared on all four indictments
Another part of this wager that stands out to me is the deadline. Trump could work to clear himself of the charges if he takes office in January 2025. However, the deadline for this wager is the end of 2024.
Classified Documents Convictions
You can also wager on how many convictions will result from specific indictments. For instance, BetUS is offering the following odds for Trump’s classified documents indictment.
- Under 10 counts (+110)
- Between 10-33 counts (+400)
- 34+ counts (+110)
The co-favorites for this wager are for Trump to have fewer than 10 or more than 34 convictions for this indictment. Both outcomes are listed at +110 odds. The other option, for Trump to have between 10 and 33 convictions, is a distant third at +400.
Hush Money Scandal Convictions
Secure betting sites also offer odds on the number of convictions in Trump’s hush money scandal indictment. Here are the latest odds for this case at BetUS.
- Under 5 counts (+150)
- Between 5-24 counts (+300)
- 25+ counts (-110)
The favorite in this market is for Trump to be convicted on 25 or more of the charges (-110). Trump being convicted on fewer than five of the charges in the indictment is a close second at +150. As with the bet above, the middle ground of Trump only having between five and 24 convictions is third with +300 odds.
Where Can I Bet on Trump Jail Odds?
The wagers above are just a few of the ways you can bet on whether Trump will go to jail. Your options for this futures market will depend on the sportsbook you choose to use. Here are three great political sportsbooks that offer odds on Trump’s legal future.
BetUS Sportsbook
One of the best options for betting on the latest Trump odds is BetUS. This betting site has competitive odds on dozens of betting markets for the 2024 election and its candidates, including Donald Trump.
BetUS has awesome betting bonuses available to new members, too. The standard bonus, for instance, is a 100% deposit match worth up to $2,500. You can use the deposit bonuses at this sportsbook to help fund your political betting bankroll.
As a member, you will also have great betting tools at your disposal. You can even bet at any time using the BetUS mobile sportsbook feature. Just access the sportsbook from your mobile browser, and you can wager on the latest Trump odds.
BetOnline Sportsbook
Another great sportsbook for betting on political odds is BetOnline. This betting site has exciting Trump indictment betting markets for you to wager on. You can also wager on Biden, RFJ Jr., and other candidates running for election this year.
As a member of BetOnline, you will also be able to access great deposit match bonuses. By depositing with Bitcoin or another crypto, you will be eligible for the 100% crypto welcome bonus promotion. This bonus offers up to $1,000 in bonus funds with just a 14x rollover requirement.
Bovada Sportsbook
A third great option for political odds betting is Bovada Sportsbook. This site is an awesome place to bet on political futures, including eh 2024 election and candidates. Members of this sportsbook have dozens of US political betting markets to choose from.
Trump is now favored to be the next 🇺🇸 President, while also possibly facing jail time and/or exile to Russia? 🤔 Only in America!
🇺🇸 politics ➡️ https://t.co/mazhUWhBp3 pic.twitter.com/K00rA0PNPK
— Bovada Casino (@Bovada_Casino) March 7, 2024
When you sign up at Bovada, you have great choices for welcome bonuses. There are specific bonuses for members using standard payment options and crypto payments. Loyal members can earn more rewards by moving to higher tiers of the Bovada VIP program.
You will also have the advantage of excellent betting tools that can help you create the perfect betting slip. The parlay booster and prop builders, for example, will help you customize your betting ticket for maximum value. You can start using these betting features as soon as you create your Bovada account.
Will Trump Go To Jail?
Trump’s legal issues in recent years have already cost him hundreds of millions of dollars, but will he actually serve jail time? I do not think that he will serve jail time this year because he lost a case. However, I can see a path for his antics to result in him being held in contempt of court.
That is why I would take the +750 odds for Trump to serve jail time by 2025. I believe he will find a way to avoid jail time if he wins the 2024 election, so he would have to serve time before then. Also, the odds for him to serve time by 2026 are too low for my preference.
Will You Bet on Trump Going to Jail?
Will Trump go to jail soon? The 2024 Presidential candidate is still battling indictments in multiple states. Despite his legal issues, Trump is still the betting favorite to win his rematch with Biden this November.
Check out the list above to see the latest Trump indictment odds. I break down the current odds for the former President’s online court battles. Also, I tell you which political sportsbooks are the best options for betting on the latest Trump indictment odds.
Contact Shaun
