What Are the Odds of Flopping a Royal Flush?
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The royal flush is the rarest of all hands in most poker games, which means your chances of securing one off the flop are extremely slim.
Every gambler that plays poker dreams about flopping a royal flush. After all, a royal flush in hand means a guaranteed victory. As long as there are no wild cards in play, no one will be able to secure a stronger hand than you.
Unfortunately, the odds are stacked against you landing a royal flush on the flop. But exactly how unlikely is it? Turns out, you have a higher chance of being killed by fireworks on any given day of the year than you do landing a royal flush on the flop.
However, this doesn’t mean it’s impossible! Keep reading to find the odds of flopping a royal flush and some more scenarios that are mr
How to Flop a Royal Flush
A royal flush is a complete five-card hand that consists of the five highest cards of the same suit. But in Texas Hold’em, players only start with two cards. That is why the earliest a player can get a royal flush is on the flop.
The flop is when the first three community cards are revealed. To get a royal flush on the flop, all three of the flop cards must contribute to the royal flush. Also, you must have the other two cards to complete the royal flush already in your hand.
For example, let’s say you were dealt an ace and a king of spades. In order to complete a royal flush on the flop, you would need the cards to be the queen, jack, and 10 of spades.
Odds of Flopping a Royal Flush
The actual odds of flopping a royal flush are 1 in 649,740. There are nearly 2.6 million playable five-card hands in Texas Hold’em, and just four of those hands are royal flushes. That means your chances of flopping a royal flush are .0000154%.
A royal flush is the hardest hand to make in standard real money Texas Hold’em games. Your odds of flopping a royal flush depend on whether you have been dealt your starting hand or not. Starting with two of the five cards you need for a royal flush significantly improves your chances.
Before the Deal
To find your exact chances of flopping a royal flush, we are going to have to do some math. The first step is to find the number of potential five-card hands. For this step, you need to know the number of cards in the deck and how many cards you need in a hand.
- You start with 52 cards in the deck
- 52*51*50*49*48 = 311,875,200
- You only get to use five cards in your final hand
- 5*4*3*2*1 = 120
- 311,875,200 / 120 = 2,598,960
But there are only four hand combinations that would create a five-card royal flush. So, to find your chances of flopping a royal flush, you would divide the number of possible royal flushes by the number of potential five-card hand combinations.
- Number of royal flushes in Texas Hold’em = 4
- Possible five-card hand combinations = 2,598,960
- 4 divided by 2,598,960 = 1/649,740 or 0.000154%
As long as these odds may seem, it is still twice as likely as winning a pick-6 lottery game (1 in 13,983,816).
After the Deal
As you can see, your odds of flopping a royal flush on any given hand are not great. On the bright side, your chances are significantly improved when you start with the first two cards of your potential royal flush.
If you start with two of the five cards that you need, then you are only three cards away from a royal flush. The match is significantly more in your favor. But landing all three of the cards you need on the flop is still a tall order.
- Cards that would complete a royal flush = 3
- Number of potential cards = 50
- (3/50)*(2/49)*(1/48) = 1/19,600 or 0.0051%
At first glance, a 0.0051% chance may not seem very high. However, it is over 33 times more likely than the odds you have of getting a royal flush on the flop before any cards are dealt.
Three Events More Likely Than Flopping a Royal Flush
In poker, the strength of a hand is defined by its rarity. Essentially, the rarer the hand, the stronger it is. That is why the royal flush is the strongest hand in standard poker games.
Flopping a royal flush is the least likely way to obtain the hand because you are limiting your opportunities to secure the five cards you need. That is why securing a royal flush on the flop is such a rare sight.
Here are some events that are more likely to happen than you seeing a flop royal flush.
Being Struck by Lightning
When talking about events with astronomical odds, one topic that inevitably pops up is being struck by lightning. This seemingly unlikely event actually happens more than you may think.
According to Britannica, your odds of being struck by lightning at some point in your lifetime are 1/15,300. This number is based on an estimated lifespan of 80 years. This means you are more likely to be hit by lightning than flopping a royal flush, even after you receive your starting hand.
Winning an Academy Award
The Academy Awards are one of the most prestigious annual events for film stars. Winning an Oscar is often the crowning achievement of many actors’ careers.
It is not difficult to break into the film industry as an extra, but your odds of working up to stardom are slim to none. Luckily, you can also win an Academy Award in other categories, such as music, special effects, and costume design.
According to Forbes, your odds of winning an Oscar at some point in your life are 1 in 11,500. This is better than your chances of flopping a royal flush, but your chances are still low. With that in mind, it might be better to stick to betting on the Oscars instead.
Bowling a Perfect Game
If you have ever spent time in a bowling alley, then you know how difficult it is to bowl a perfect game (or for me, a 100). In order to score 300 points, you need to hit a strike every time you send the ball down the lane.
Even with modern equipment and years of practice, perfect games are rare things to see. Professional bowlers have roughly a 1 in 460 chance to bowl a perfect game. For non-professionals, the odds fade to 1 in 11,500.
There are other factors to consider in addition to the bowler’s experience level. Lane conditions, quality of equipment, and other conditions play a factor. In general, though, you are more likely to bowl a perfect game than flop a royal flush.
Three Events Less Likely Than Flopping a Royal Flush
Winning an Olympic Medal
While your odds of flopping a royal flush are extremely low, doing so is still more likely than winning a medal at the Olympics.
Let’s use the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing as an example. That year, a total of 551 athletes won medals across 109 events. However, a total of 2,897 athletes competed in those games. That means about 19% of competitors appeared on the medal stand at the ’22 Winter Games.
So, actual Olympians only have about a 1-in-5 chance at winning a medal if they’re good enough to even qualify. If you extrapolate the numbers to the global population, the percentages decline dramatically. The average person’s odds of winning a medal at any Olympics are 1 in 662,000.
Winning the Lottery
Winning the lottery is everyone’s dream. However, your chances of earning life-changing money via the lottery are almost non-existent.
Of course, your odds of winning the lottery vary depending on the game. While winning some sort of prize in Powerball actually features favorable 1 in 38 odds, your odds of winning the jackpot tumble all the way to 1 in 292.2 million. The Mega Millions jackpot features even longer odds at 1 in 302.6 million.
According to those odds, you’re much better off chasing the dream by playing poker online than you are by trying to guess a sequence of random numbers.
Getting Killed by a Shark
Sharks are known as fearsome predators, but they don’t often kill humans. Pro tip: One easy way to not get killed by a shark is to never go into the ocean.
Naturally, you have a better chance of getting killed by a shark if you live near the coast or like to surf. If you live in a coastal area, your chances of dying via shark attack are still a very slim 1 in 3.7 million. If you live nowhere near the ocean, your chances of survival improve even further. Non-coastal residents have a 1 in 7 million chance of getting eaten by a shark.
Flopping a royal flush isn’t all that likely, but at least it’s more common than dying in a shark attack.
Tips for Playing a Potential Royal Flush
Flopping a royal flush is a rare occurrence, but it is possible to pull off. And if you play enough hands of poker, you will eventually start with two high cards of the same suit. Here are three tips to help you play a starting hand that could turn into a royal flush.
Build the Pot Slowly
Successful poker players are able to maximize their strongest starting poker hands. This often involves building the pot slowly so that you do not scare too many other players. If everyone folds too early, then you will win less money than you could have.
Know When to Bail
Starting with an ace and king of the same suit puts you in a great position to land a royal flush. But you still need help from the community cards to have a winning hand. If that help does not at least start to arrive on the flop, you may need to fold in order to preserve your bankroll.
Adjust Your Strategy Post Flop
If you do flop a royal flush, or at least some of the cards you need, then you will want to have a strategy in mind to take advantage of your hand. Remember, other players can see the community cards too, so they will know that a royal flush is a possibility. Use your knowledge of the other players and the strength of your hand to adjust your strategy accordingly.
Have You Ever Flopped a Royal Flush?
Your odds of flopping a royal flush are low, but it does happen. Knowing how to take advantage of this rare opportunity can lead to huge wins. Check out our Texas Hold’em guide to learn more about the world’s most popular poker game.
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