Understanding Blackjack’s “Match the Dealer” Side Bet
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Blackjack is a super simple game to learn, and side bets like Match the Dealer up the stakes, especially for novice players.
The Match the Dealer bet is popular at land-based casinos, and rarely appears online. But, is it worth playing when in Vegas? In this article, we break down what the blackjack Match the Dealer side bet is, assess the probability, payouts, and house edge, and give our honest verdict on the wager.
What Is the “Match the Dealer” Side Bet?
In terms of blackjack side bets, Match the Dealer is a fairly simple wager. You’re betting that your initial cards will match the dealer’s up-card in rank or suit (or both). The payout varies depending on how many cards you matched, and how exact of a match they were. (We’ll discuss payouts later).
The Match the Dealer side bet made its first appearance at Vegas card tables in 1999 as the brainchild of Masque Publishing. Masque was the same company responsible for the Spanish 21 blackjack variant, which also became a hit in Vegas casinos.
How Does the Match the Dealer Side Bet Work?
To get a chance at the Match the Dealer payouts, you must wager on both the side bet and your regular hand. It’s common to place a $1 or $2 wager on the side bet while a higher wager on your hand to minimize losses.
When you’re playing blackjack, you receive 2 face-up cards, while the dealer only receives 1 face-up card. This means that there are 5 possible outcomes for matching the dealer’s hand.
- 2 Suited Matches (Perfect Match) – 2 cards of identical rank and suit
- 1 Suited Match + 1 Unsuited Match – 2 cards of identical rank with one suited match
- 1 Suited Match – 1 card of identical rank and suit
- 2 Unsuited Matches (Rank Match) – 2 cards of identical rank with no suited matches
- 1 Unsuited Match – 1 card of identical rank but no suited match
Obviously, it’s most difficult to hit a Perfect Match, regardless of how many decks you’re playing with. We did a bit of math and broke down the probability of hitting each of the win conditions based on common deck sizes. We found that variation between deck sizes isn’t that large, and on average, the probability of each win type is as follows:
| Match the Dealer Win | Probability of Winning |
|---|---|
| 2 Suited Matches | 0.0379% |
| 1 Suited Match + 1 Unsuited Match | 0.227% |
| 1 Suited Match | 3.821% |
| 2 Unsuited Matches | 0.341% |
| 1 Unsuited Match | 11.007% |
You stand the best chance of hitting 1 unsuited match, and then 1 suited match.
Payout Structures and Odds
Alright, now to the fun stuff: payouts. Match the Dealer offers fairly competitive payouts compared to some other blackjack side bets. For example, Insurance only pays 2:1, while perfect pairs at the low end pays 6:1.
Here’s a look at the payouts for Match the Dealer. We only included data for 6 and 8 deck shoes, since those are primarily what you’ll see at Vegas casinos (and online).
| Win Condition | 6-Deck Payout | 8-Deck Payout |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Suited Matches | 22:1 | 28:1 |
| 1 Suited Match + 1 Unsuited Match | 15:1 | 17:1 |
| 1 Suited Match | 11:1 | 14:1 |
| 2 Unsuited Matches | 8:1 | 6:1 |
| 1 Unsuited Match | 4:1 | 3:1 |
House Edge Considerations
It’s easy to look at the probability of each win condition hitting and make an assumption about whether you should take the bet. But, to get a better visualization, you can use the house edge.
As you’re probably aware, the house edge is the tithe the casino takes on your wagers over time. For traditional blackjack, anywhere from 0.5% to 2% is a reasonable house edge.
However, the Match the Dealer side bet house edge is a bit higher. We calculated the house edge using this formula:
- House Edge = 1 – (Payout x Probability)
| Win Condition | 6-Deck House Edge | 8-Deck House Edge |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Suited Matches | 99.17% | 98.93% |
| 1 Suited Match + 1 Unsuited Match | 96.59% | 96.14% |
| 1 Suited Match | 57.96% | 46.51% |
| 2 Unsuited Matches | 97.27% | 97.95% |
| 1 Unsuited Match | 55.97% | 66.97 |
As you can see, the house edge is brutal for Match the Dealer. Your best option is 1 suited match in an 8-deck shoe, and even then, the casino takes $0.46 for every $1 you wager.
Should You Play the “Match the Dealer” Side Bet?
So, at the end of the day, what do we think? Is it worth playing Match the Dealer?
From a mathematical standpoint, no, it’s not. The house edge is very high, and the probability of getting the best payout (28:1 for 2 Suited Match) is so low, you’re unlikely to see it in 100 hands.
That said, if you’re not playing blackjack for profit, and you’re only going to play a few hands, side bets become less of an issue. If you’re betting Match the Dealer for $1 over the course of 10 hands, you’re not out that much. And, if you hit the best probability of the game, you could even win $3.
But, if you’re in for a long haul, Match the Dealer isn’t ideal, and is probably one of the worst side bets you could take.
Have Fun with Online Blackjack Instead
If you’re looking for a fun gambling experience, but don’t want the underwhelming probability of blackjack’s Match the Dealer side bet, try playing online blackjack instead.
Online casinos nowadays are pretty robust, and they offer all kinds of blackjack variants, from Masque’s Spanish 21 to European Blackjack. You can even play live dealer games from the comfort of your home.
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