Trump Cabinet Confirmation Odds and Predictions
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President-elect Trump’s cabinet confirmation odds are one of many ways to bet on the upcoming administration. The future President struggled to keep his cabinet full during his first term, and those issues have sprung up again. Trump’s cabinet issues have created thrilling betting markets for fans of US politics.
This guide will break down the latest Trump administration betting odds from top political sportsbooks. I will tell you the latest odds for Trump’s top nominees and give my predictions on whether they will be confirmed to the President-elect’s cabinet.
Trump Cabinet Confirmation Odds
BetOnline Sportsbook is one of the top places for political betting. It offers multiple markets on Trump’s upcoming administration, including confirmation odds on the following nominations.
- Tulsi Gabbard – Director of National Intelligence (DNI)
- Pete Hegseth – Defense Secretary
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – Health and Human Services Secretary
Tulsi Gabbard’s lack of experience and previous statements about foreign policy could obstruct her confirmation. Likewise, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has a long history of conspiracy theories. To make matters worse, both Gabbard and RFK are former Democrats who defected to join Trump’s MAGA movement.
Pete Hegseth also lacks experience and has more than his fair share of conspiracy theories. Hegseth faces legal challenges as well, as he is currently under investigation after being accused of sexual abuse.
Will Tulsi Gabbard be Confirmed as National Intelligence Director?
- Yes (-250)
- No (+170)
One of President-elect Trump’s most surprising early nominations was Tulsi Gabbard as National Intelligence Director. Gabbard ran for the Democratic presidential nomination ahead of the 2020 election. Shortly after losing the nomination, Gabbard left the Democratic party.
Gabbard threw her support behind Trump and was one of the more prominent faces along his campaign trail in 2024. Trump nominated Gabbard to be the Director of National Intelligence in his cabinet. Gabbard is a -250 favorite to be confirmed for the position.
A -250 favorite is nothing to shake a stick at, implying a 71.43% win probability. However, Gabbard has the longest odds of any of the three cabinet nominees in BetOnline’s betting markets. Her years in the Democratic party are not the only hurdle Gabbard must overcome.
Gabbard lacks the experience of your typical NID nominee. She also has a history of supporting and defending foreign dictators, including Vladimir Putin and former Syrian dictator Bashar Al-Assad.
Pete Hegseth’s Odds to Be Confirmed as Defense Secretary
- Yes (-600)
- No (+350)
Another of Trump’s nominees who faces a tough confirmation battle is Pete Hegseth. The former Fox News host is Trump’s nominee for Defense Secretary. He is listed at -600 to be confirmed, giving him the best odds of any nominee to be confirmed.
Despite the odds, Hegseth still faces multiple challenges to his confirmation. First and foremost, multiple members of Congress have expressed concerns about the sexual assault allegations levied against Hegseth. The allegations came to light days after Hegseth’s nomination was announced.
His former Fox colleagues have also undermined Hegseth’s nomination. Multiple people who worked with Hegseth at Fox expressed concerns about his drinking, even claiming that he was drunk or hungover at work.
Hegseth’s inexperience could also work against him. Trump considered him for Secretary of Veteran Affairs in his first presidency, but Hegseth was not selected for the role. He has never held a senior military position or created national security policy.
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Be Confirmed to Trump’s Cabinet?
- Yes (-450)
- No (+275)
Last but not least, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is listed at -450 to be confirmed as a member of Trump’s cabinet. RFK Jr. is currently nominated to be Trump’s Health and Human Services Secretary.
Kennedy Jr.’s anti-vaccine views align with much of Trump’s MAGA base. However, it could create hurdles for his confirmation. His past heroin use, including an arrest in the 1980s, cost him a role in the Obama administration.
RFK Jr. has also been a strong critic of Trump and his voters in the past. Like JD Vance, RFK Jr. compared Trump to Hitler. He also called Trump’s voters “belligerent idiots” and compared them to nazis. Despite his past criticisms, RFK has fallen in line with the Trump campaign.
He is a strong proponent of increased regulations, especially in the food and healthcare industries. Republicans are primarily the anti-regulation party. RFK Jr.’s decades of work with the Democratic party could make it challenging for him to build support with the GOP for his nomination.
Factors Influencing Confirmation Odds
Trump struggled to keep his cabinet full during his first administration, and his nominees for his next administration face their fair share of obstacles. Despite having complete control of Congress, the composition of the Senate, a nominee’s background, and the current political climate influence each nominee’s odds of being confirmed.
Senate Composition
The Senate has the sole power to confirm a nominee for the presidential cabinet. A nominee only requires a simple majority to be confirmed, and the GOP will control 53 of the 100 seats.
Despite having the majority, Trump’s nominees are not guaranteed to be confirmed. Each party has outliers that are challenging to keep in line, and the few anti-Trump Republicans that remain in power could golf up the process.
Nominee Background
Another factor to consider is the background of each nominee. For example, prior experience related to the position would help a nominee be confirmed. Other factors, such as ongoing legal issues, are also a factor.
For Gabbard and RFK, Jr., their extensive history as Democrats could work against them. Hegseth’s legal issues threaten to derail his nomination, much the same way they did Matt Gaetz’s bd for Attorney General.
Political Climate
A third important factor to consider is the current political climate. Many of Trump’s actions since winning the election, such as switching his stance on H1B visas, have angered his MAGA base.
Republicans have been held hostage by Trump and his MAGA voters since he first ran for president nearly a decade ago. However, GOP senators could now be forced to choose between appeasing the voters or the president-elect if the latter continues to anger his base.
Who Else Has Trump Nominated?
Gabbard, Hegseth, and RFK, Jr. are not the only nominees fighting for confirmation. Trump announced he would appoint Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to run the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Since DOGE is not an official part of the presidential cabinet, Musk and Ramaswamy do not need to be confirmed for their positions.
Kash Patel, Trump’s nominee for FBI Director, does not have that luxury. Patel is doing his best to rally support, but renewed concerns about immigrants and recent terror attacks in New Orleans and Las Vegas could hurt Patel’s cabinet nominee confirmation chances.
One notable nominee who has already failed to be confirmed is Matt Gaetz. The Republican congressman was up for Attorney General but was forced to withdraw from the nomination.
Why Did Matt Gaetz Withdraw as Attorney General Nominee?
One of President-elect Trump’s first nominations was Matt Gaetz for Attorney General. The Republican congressman won reelection to represent Florida’s first district, a seat he has held since 2017.
Gaetz’s time as the AG nominee only lasted eight days. Multiple GOP Senate members publicly stated they would not support Gaetz’s nomination.
One reason Gaetz’s nomination failed so quickly was a House ethics committee report that investigated allegations of sexual misconduct and drug use. He also led the charge to replace Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House, which embarrassed Republicans and earned Gaetz no favors in the party.
Where to Bet on Trump Cabinet Confirmation Odds
Betting on Trump’s 2025 cabinet picks is one of the best ways to wager on the President-elect’s upcoming second administration. To get the most bang for your buck, you must use a great sportsbook with competitive political odds.
BetOnline has thrilling political betting markets, including multiple options for wagering on Trump’s upcoming term. You can bet on everything from who Trump will pardon to which of his nominees will be confirmed to the president’s cabinet.
You can deposit with multiple safe banking options, including credit cards and cryptocurrency, including Bitcoin. The bonuses at BetOnline make it easy to grow your bankroll for political betting.
What Are Your Trump 2025 Cabinet Picks?
The latest Trump cabinet confirmation odds favor Gabbard, Hegseth, and RFK Jr. to be confirmed to their positions in the president’s cabinet. However, all three face challenging roads to confirmation. Here are my predictions for Trump’s cabinet confirmations.
- Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence (-250)
- Pete Hegseth not confirmed as Defense Secretary (+350)
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. confirmed as Health and Human Services Secretary (-450)
A partial stake in all three to fail could create a big payout if even one fails to be confirmed. However, I think the best option is to bet against Hegseth, who faces pressing legal challenges as well as upcoming Senate confirmation hearings. Create your BetOnline account today to bet on the latest Trump administration betting odds.
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