The Impact of Joe Biden Remaining the Democratic Nominee on 2024 House and Senate Odds
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Joe Biden has stated he will stay in the presidential race despite growing concerns, and his decision could significantly impact the House and Senate odds in 2024. Controlling at least one, if not both, parts of Congress directly impacts any President’s ability to accomplish their agenda.
This political betting guide examines the effect of Biden remaining on the Democratic ticket. Specifically, we will analyze the Congress odds in battlegrounds and how they are influenced by Biden’s role as the Democratic nominee.
Current Political Landscape
Political pundits predicted a “Red Wave” in the 2022 Midterm Elections. However, the GOP managed to pick up only nine seats in the House of Representatives, enough to gain a slim majority.
On the other hand, Democrats lost control of the Senate, with one seat flipped, giving Vice President Kamala Harris the tie-breaking vote in close scenarios. Control of both the House and the Senate is up for grabs again in November 2024.
Biden’s role as the Democratic nominee will have a significant impact on these elections.
Biden’s Approval Ratings and Public Perception
Despite President Biden’s effectiveness in passing legislation and creating jobs, his approval rating has dropped to historically low levels. This decline has been attributed to a lack of public credit for his accomplishments.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Biden’s approval rating was around 50% last year but has since fallen to below 40%. This negative perception could adversely affect Democratic candidates in close races this November. Donald Trump is also now heavily favored in the general election.
Key Senate Races and Biden’s Influence
The Senate has 100 seats, and every seat up for election is crucial in 2024. In addition to the 33 seats already on the ballot, special elections will fill vacancies left by Ben Sasse (R) and Dianne Feinstein (D).
Here are the 2024 Senate odds for key states, courtesy of BetOnline Sportsbook:
| State | Favorite | Underdog |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan | Democrats (-225) | Republicans (+160) |
| Arizona | Democrats (-200) | Republicans (+150) |
| Montana | Republicans (-275) | Democrats (+185) |
| Nevada | Democrats (-140) | Republicans (+100) |
| Ohio | Republicans (-140) | Democrats (+100) |
Overall, Republicans are the -600 favorites for Senate control in 2024. Swing states like Michigan and Arizona are crucial, with Democrats favored to retain their seats. However, a Biden-led ticket could negatively impact Democratic Senate candidates if voter morale is low.
House of Representatives Control and Biden’s Influence
In the 2022 Midterms, the GOP flipped enough seats to control the House of Representatives. The Cook Political Report considers 22 seats in this year’s election as toss-ups, split evenly between Republican and Democrat-controlled seats.
BetOnline lists the GOP as -155 favorites to control the House after the 2024 election. Biden’s presence on the ticket could make it difficult for Democrats to rally support in these districts, potentially allowing the GOP to flip key seats.
Potential Democratic Strategies
If Biden steps down, the 2024 election dynamics will change dramatically. For now, Democrats must focus on overcoming the challenges of Biden’s candidacy:
- Focus on Platform: Highlight the strengths of Biden’s cabinet to reassure voters concerned about his age and effectiveness.
- Highlight GOP Flaws: Emphasize the flaws in Trump’s campaign, particularly policies like Project 2025, to reduce the GOP’s appeal.
- Support Biden Publicly: Democratic leaders must rally behind Biden to prevent a fractured party, which would hurt all candidates on the ticket.
Historical Comparisons
A low approval rating historically bodes poorly for any incumbent President. Per Gallup, Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992 sought re-election with approval ratings below 40% and lost in landslides.
Overcoming Biden’s low approval rating is crucial for Democrats to improve their odds in the House and Senate races.
Will Biden Impact House and Senate Odds in 2024?
President Biden’s re-election campaign faces many hurdles, including concerns about his age and low approval ratings. As calls for Biden to step down increase, concerns about his impact on congressional races grow.
Our analysis shows that while Biden’s presence could hinder Democratic candidates, focusing on the party’s strengths and addressing GOP weaknesses can mitigate these effects.
For the latest Congress odds and a detailed breakdown, sign up at BetOnline to bet on the 2024 elections.
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