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Political Betting Odds: Will Kevin McCarthy Remain Speaker of the House?

According to the latest political betting odds, several high-ranking Republicans are in danger of losing their jobs. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is among the GOP members who are currently on the hot seat.

It took McCarthy 15 votes to be elected Speaker of the House, and he made a lot of concessions along the way. Now, the best politics betting sites are allowing you to wager on whether or not he keeps his job through the end of the year.

Read on to see the latest developments regarding the Speaker’s job security. Also, I will break down how you can wager on McCarthy’s future using the latest betting odds.

Political Betting Odds – Will McCarthy Keep His Job as Speaker?

• Yes (-2000)
• No (+750)

BetUS Sportsbook is one of the best places to bet on politics. It has tons of betting markets available, including political betting odds for McCarthy’s future as Speaker.

Oddsmakers at this secure betting site have McCarthy favored to keep his job (-2000) at least through the end of the year. McCarthy is listed at +750 to be removed as speaker before January 1st, 2024. The Speaker would have to lose his job before the end of 2023 for the “no” option to hit.

McCarthy has been Speaker for less than a year. But holding the seat for even that long has been a struggle. Far-right members of the GOP have already threatened to vote McCarthy out of the Speaker of the House role. Extremists in the Freedom Caucus would have an unlikely ally in the Democrats if they did decide to vote out McCarthy.

However, oddsmakers at BetUS and other real money sportsbooks think McCarthy at least makes it to New Year’s in his current position. At -2000, he is a heavy favorite to make it to next year as the Speaker. Before I give you my predictions for McCarthy’s future, let’s take a look at why the Speaker’s job is in jeopardy in the first place.

Why Is Kevin McCarthy’s Job in Jeopardy?

In most cases, the Speaker of the House has the full support of the majority party behind them. Parties typically have a leader in mind to elect as Speaker when they win control of the House of Representatives.

Matt Gaetz is calling out Kevin McCarthy for lying to the American people. THANK YOU! pic.twitter.com/dqlI0wgkoB

— Brigitte Gabriel (@ACTBrigitte) September 12, 2023

That was not the case when the GOP won control of the House at last year’s midterm elections. Kevin McCarthy was the presumed choice, but the small faction of the GOP did not want to play along. Instead, extreme right-leaning Republicans held out their votes until they got several concessions from McCarthy.

Many of those same GOP members are now threatening to take the title of Speaker away from McCarthy. Due to the concessions McCarthy made to get the job, members of the far-right may be able to remove him after less than a year as Speaker.

Vote to Remove the Speaker

Members of the far-right “Freedom Caucus” refused to vote for McCarthy as Speaker until the seasoned politician agreed to their list of demands. After failing to win the job in the first 14 votes, an embarrassed McCarthy finally gave in to their demands.

Essentially, the relatively small Freedom Caucus can turn the tides against the majority party leader. Votes from this small group of GOP members combined with the Democratic representatives would be enough to remove McCarthy.

Growing GOP Frustrations

In an unsurprising move, the Freedom Caucus is already threatening to use their newly established power. Less than a year into McCarthy’s term as speaker, members of the far-right are already frustrated with the GOP majority leader.

Analysis: Kevin McCarthy directed an impeachment inquiry into President Biden based on “allegations,” making the process a debasement of what was intended to be a constitutional vehicle to remove a president for malfeasance. https://t.co/lwP6xoAaZL

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) September 16, 2023

Matt Gaetz (R- FL) has been one of the more vocal members of the far-right Freedom Caucus. He recently gave a new list of demands to McCarthy that included:

• Term limits for Congress
• Budget demands
• Issuing subpoenas regarding the Hunter Biden investigation
• Releasing footage from the January 6th insurrection

Gaetz’s latest list of demands came after McCarthy announced the House would be launching an impeachment probe against President Biden. However, Gaetz made it clear that the impeachment attempt would not be enough to keep McCarthy in his current position as Speaker of the House.

Slim Majority in the House

The biggest issue for McCarthy is the same one that he has been dealing with since before he was elected Speaker. Republicans did not flip as many seats in the midterm elections as they expected to. As a result, the GOP only has a slim 222 to 212-seat majority in the House.

This slim majority was the biggest reason why the Freedom Caucus was able to force McCarthy to agree to their demands in the first place. Now, it could cost him his job.

The Democratic members of the house would likely support McCarthy’s removal as speaker. Their support, combined with the 45 members of the Freedom Caucus, would be enough to oust McCarthy as Speaker.

How Can Kevin McCarthy Be Removed as Speaker of the House?

Many of McCarthy’s concessions to the Freedom Caucus were unprecedented. The new Speaker made it easier than ever for members of his own party to remove him from his position. Here is how members of the far right could remove McCarthy as Speaker.

A Member Files a Motions to Vacate

The first step to removing McCarthy as Speaker of the House is for a member to file a motion to vacate. According to the agreement McCarthy came to with extremists in his own party, any member of the House can file this motion.

Members of the Democratic Party could also file the motion. However, it appears that they are content to wait for the far-right to try to oust McCarthy.

The House Holds a Vote

After the motion has been filed, the House of Representatives will hold a vote. Each member of the House gets one vote on the issue.

In order for McCarthy to remain as Speaker, he needs to retain enough support from the current members. The most likely scenario is that only members of the GOP would vote to keep McCarthy in his current position.

Before the vote on the, there would be a vote to table the motion. If this vote passes, then the motion is effectively ended. Both the vote-to-table and the vote on the motion itself would require a simple majority to pass.

Simple Majority

There is currently one vacant seat in the House, meaning there are only 434 voting members. McCarthy would need the support of 218 of them to keep his position as Speaker of the House.

The GOP currently controls 222 seats, so a united Republican party would keep McCarthy in his currency role. But if even a few members of the GOP vote against McCarthy, it would be enough to turn the tide against him.

Will Kevin McCarthy Remain Speaker of the House?

McCarthy has held onto his role as Speaker of the House so far. But it has not been a smooth ride for the Speaker, with many members of his own party causing issues.

Despite these issues, I do not think that McCarthy will be voted out before the end of the year. Assuming he can get past the potential government shutdown at the end of this month, I think he will finish 2023 as the Speaker.

Matt Gaetz: “Right there you saw Kevin McCarthy lying like a dead dog because I have never asked him to interfere in any ethics matter…That is an abject lie from a sad and pathetic man who lies to hold on to power. ” pic.twitter.com/RqUgNl09Ao

— Republican Accountability (@AccountableGOP) September 13, 2023

There are certainly enough votes to remove McCarthy as speaker if the Freedom Caucus calls his bluff. However, I do not think that the vote will happen before the end of this year.

Also, in hopes of keeping his job, I think that McCarthy will have to make even more concessions to the Freedom Caucus. He has already shown that he is willing to meet their demands if it means being elected as the Speaker. I think he will do even more to keep the job now that he has it.

There is a chance that even that is not enough. Alternatively, McCarthy could decide he is tired of bending the knee to the far-right members of the GOP. If you can spare it, a small bet at +750 could be worth the risk given all of the turmoil in the Republican Party.

Do You Think That McCarthy Will Remain Speaker of the House?

According to the latest political betting odds, Kevin McCarthy is a heavy favorite to finish the year as Speaker of the House. I tend to agree with the bookmakers, but I would be surprised if he finishes a full term. Check out the blog above to see the latest on this ongoing situation.