A Breakdown of the Next Tory Leader Odds
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Rishi Sunak is teetering on the brink of open rebellion within the Conservative Party following a pair of damaging by-election defeats. His prospects of winning the upcoming general election appear bleaker by the day, causing bookmakers to update their next Tory leader odds.
Kemi Badenoch, Penny Mordaunt and Suella Braverman are the frontrunners to replace Sunak if he is ousted as Conservative Party leader. However, there are some intriguing long shots in this market, including Boris Johnson, David Cameron and Nigel Farage, so it promises to be a gripping contest.
Who Will Succeed Rishi Sunak as Conservative Party Leader?
Labour are now the 1/16 favourites with some bookies to win this year’s general election after overturning huge Tory majorities in the Wellingborough and Kingswood by-elections. The Conservatives have drifted out to 7/1, suggesting that their 14-year reign will soon come to an end.
He is all but certain to lose his position as party leader this year, sparking a fierce battle to succeed him.
Penny Mordaunt is the leading candidate from the party’s more moderate wing. Suella Braverman is the right-wing darling, renowned for her anti-immigrant rhetoric, while Kemi Badenoch tries to appeal to both moderates and the right-wing, while wooing Tories with culture war attacks.
That trio could engage in a fight for the future identity of the party, but they could also face fierce competition from former PMs David Cameron and Boris Johnson, while the spectre of Nigel Farage looms large over Tories.
Next Tory Leader Odds and Analysis
The Tory leadership odds vary significantly from one online bookie to the next, but Betway consistently offers some of the best prices on the odds.
| Candidate | Betway Odds |
|---|---|
| Kemi Badenoch | 5/2 |
| Penny Mordaunt | 5/1 |
| Suella Braverman | 11/2 |
| James Cleverley | 5/1 |
| David Cameron | 10/1 |
| Nigel Farage | 20/1 |
| Boris Johnson | 28/1 |
Kemi Badenoch Odds
Badenoch was elected MP for Saffron Walden, a safe Tory seat in Essex, in 2017. She cited Winston Churchill, Airey Neave, and Margaret Thatcher as her personal heroes when advocating for Brexit the following year.
She railed against net-zero policies and spoke in favour of less state intervention, but she was eliminated in the fourth round of voting.
She eventually endorsed Sunak following Liz Truss’ brief and ill-fated tenure as Prime Minister, and she was rewarded with her first Secretary of State at the newly-created Department for Business and Trade. Badenoch has been described as “the new darling of the right” and a “culture warrior”, while some see her as a potential unifying force within the party. She is the favourite in the next leader of the Conservative Party odds, best priced at 5/2 with Betway, but that price does not look particularly appealing on such an inexperienced politician.
Penny Mordaunt Odds
Mordaunt made it through to the fifth round of voting as the battle to replace Johnson as Tory leader heated up in 2022. She eventually endorsed Truss after falling out of contention. The 50-year-old MP for Portsmouth North is currently Leader of the House of Commons, and she has previously served as Defence Secretary and International Development Secretary.
She enjoyed a blaze of publicity following her sword-wielding antics at King Charles II’s coronation last year. Mordaunt is back in the news this week, as a poll revealed that 38% of Tory voters believe she is the only candidate that could beat Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer at the next election.
Mordaunt performed far better than Sunak and Badenoch in the survey, which was conducted by Deltapoll and Helm Partners Ltd. She campaigned in favour of Brexit, but she is seen as a more moderate alternative to Badenoch and Braverman, highlighted by her support of trans rights. She also has a colourful background, having served as a magician’s assistant and a navy reservist, so she could prove popular with Tory members. Mordaunt is priced at 5/1 with Betway, which looks interesting, although there are longer odds on some political heavyweights further down the chart.
James Cleverly Odds
Cleverly is currently the most senior Tory in the running to replace Sunak as leader of the Conservative Party. The 54-year-old Braintree MP served as the Foreign Secretary until November 2023, when he was appointed Home Secretary by Sunak.
Cleverly is another Brexit supporter, who has a military background. He has been described as a neo-Thatcherite, having supported Truss’ attempts to promote a libertarian agenda. Cleverly is priced at 5/1 in the Tory leadership, but there is more value of offer further down the list.
Other Tory Party Leader Candidates
Three big names stand out when browsing the odds for the next Tory leader. In 2019, Boris Johnson led the Conservative Party to their biggest election win in 33 years after winning over millions of Labour voters. He is still very popular within the party, and he could return in a bid to lead the Tories back into power. Johnson was forced out in 2022 after one scandal after another, but memories are short in politics, and odds of 33/1 at Betfred on him replacing Sunak look very tempting.
David Cameron made an unexpected return to frontline politics when he replaced Cleverly as Foreign Secretary last year. The former PM led the party for 11 years before resigning in 2016, having unsuccessfully campaigned for the UK to remain part of the EU. You can find 20/1 on him returning to the summit of the Conservative Party, and stranger things have happened, although Johnson looks a more appealing bet right now.
Then there’s Nigel Farage. He quit the Conservative Party in the 1990s, and he has been a thorn in their side ever since, first as UKIP leader, then as Brexit Party leader and now as honorary president of Reform UK. His various parties have seized votes from the Tory right, and he could finally take hold of the Tories if Sunak is ousted. “I’d be very surprised if I were not Conservative leader by 2026,” he recently said. Jacob Rees-Mogg urged Tories to roll out the red carpet for Farage, so odds of 20/1 look attractive.
Tips for How to Bet on Next Tory Leader Odds
Here are some key tips to boost your chances of success when betting on the next Tory leader odds:
- Shop for the best odds. The price on each candidate will vary from one bookie to the next, so shop around for the best odds to maximise your profits.
- Hedge your bets. If your chosen candidate makes it through to the final round of voting, bet on his or her opponent. That will ensure you cover both possible outcomes, locking in a profit irrespective of who wins.
- Focus on previous leadership battles. Mordaunt, Braverman and Badenoch have all fallen well short in their previous attempts to become the next Tory leader. All three have enjoyed considerable momentum, only to see it fade as they come up against more experienced rivals. History could repeat itself, as voters may be inclined to give Johnson another chance.
Get Your Bets in For the Next Tory Leader
The Tory leadership odds will fluctuate in the build-up to the next general election. There is a chance that Sunak may be removed before it takes place, as many MPs feel they are headed towards disaster. Keep an eye on the next Tory leader odds and be prepared to move quickly if it looks as though Sunak’s days are numbered.
If Sunak clings on until the election and then falls on his sword after losing, scan the pages of The Telegraph, The Spectator and the Daily Mail, plus influential blogs and social media for insights as to who might replace him, and remember to hedge your bets as the field narrows.
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