Next Speaker of the House Odds: Who Will Replace Kevin McCarthy?

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MyBookie Speaker of the House odds on the Left and the Speaker of the House Seat on the Right

After a historic vote on Tuesday, Congress is officially looking for the next House Speaker. Kevin McCarthy, the former speaker, was voted out of the office after less than a year in the position.

Thanks to the latest political betting odds, you can wager on who the new Speaker will be. The GOP still has a slight majority in the House, so all of the top candidates are Republican. Patrick McHenry (R-NC) will serve as the interim Speaker until a new one is officially elected.

Continue reading to see the latest next Speaker of the House odds from the top political sportsbooks. I will break down the odds for all the top GOP candidates to replace McCarthy. Also, I will tell you my prediction for who I think wins the job.

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What Happened to Kevin McCarthy?

There are plenty of interesting candidates whose names are being tossed around as replacements for Kevin McCarthy. Before we look at the next Speaker odds, there is one question to answer first. Why is McCarthy not the Speaker of the House anymore?

In truth, McCarthy never had a strong hold on the job. It took him over a dozen attempts to be elected to the position at the beginning of this session of Congress. McCarthy had to make several compromises with far-right members of the GOP in order to earn their votes and become Speaker.

One of the many concessions made by McCarthy was that any member of the GOP could motion for him to vacate the position. After weeks of back-and-forth with Matt Gaetz (R-FL), it became clear that a potential vote was coming sooner rather than later.

Some of the issues the Gaetz and other members of the far-right members of Congress had with McCarthy included:

  • Impeachment of President Biden
  • Term limits
  • Budget cuts

The House just passed a temporary budget resolution to avoid a government shutdown. However, it was far from the budget that Gaetz and other far-right members of Congress wanted.

Gaetz called for the motion to vacate the Speaker’s chair earlier this week. Other members of the Freedom Caucus joined with Gaetz to vote out McCarthy. The Democrats in the House also supported the motion, resulting in McCarthy’s removal from the position.

Can Trump be Speaker of the House?

Kevin McCarthy has already said that he will not be running for the chair again. But there are plenty of other GOP members that will be eager to fill the seat. One of the more interesting potential candidates is former President Donald Trump.

Every Speaker of the House has been a member of Congress. However, the US Constitution does not actually say that being a current member of Congress is a requirement to hold the position.

Technically, anyone, including former President Trump, can be elected to the position. Trump would have to deal with his ongoing indictments first, though.

Anyone indicted on felony charges that have more than a two-year punishment is not allowed to hold a leadership position. This is according to Rule 26 of the current House Republican Conference Rules.

Next Speaker of the House Odds

  • Steve Scalise (+100)
  • Kevin Hern (+600)
  • Jim Jordan (+800)
  • Elise Stefanik (+1000)
  • Patrick McHenry (+1400)
  • Donald Trump Sr. (+2000)
  • Hakeem Jeffries (+2000)
  • Marjorie Taylor Greene (+10000)

The next Speaker of the House odds boards are full of interesting names. All of the top candidates are members of the Republican party. This is not a surprise as the GOP holds a slight majority in the House.

Steve Scalise (R-LA) is the current House Majority Leader. He is also the favorite to be the next Speaker of the House. BetOnline has Scalise listed at +100 to win the seat.

The next closest candidates are Kevin Hern (R-OK) and Jim Jordan (R-OH), who are listed at +600 and +800, respectively. Hern announced his intentions to run for the position of Speaker the day after McCarthy was ousted. Jordan is an interesting option as he was one of the founding members of the Freedom Caucus.

Patrick McHenry, the current interim speaker, has the fifth-best odds at +1400. Former President Trump (+2000) has the same betting odds as House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY). Marjorie Taylor Green, one of the most vocal members of the far-right, is listed at +10000.

Steve Scalise (+100)

The Republicans had a historically difficult time confirming a House Speaker back in January. So, it makes sense that the leader candidate in the latest next House Speaker odds is a figure that is well-known in the party. Steve Scalise (+100) has held his seat in the House since 2008.

Normally, Scalise would be a logical choice for the GOP to rally behind. After all, he ran unopposed for the Majority Leader position and is well-versed in the ways of the House of Representatives.

However, the congressman is currently battling health issues once again. He is currently undergoing treatment for multiple myeloma, and his health concerns could make it difficult for him to perform his duties as Speaker.

Patrick McHenry (+1400)

Another obvious choice for the position would be Patrick McHenry. The current Speaker pro tempore of the House will perform the duties of Speaker until a new one is elected. In theory, McHenry could gain support by performing his duties as interim Speaker well.

But there is a reason why McHenry is listed behind other potential candidates, like Hern (+600) and Jordan (+800). McCarthy names McHenry as his successor as the two have been allies for a long time. That is likely to cost McHenry the support of the Freedom Caucus, which he would need to win the position.

McHenry also played a major part in negotiating with the Democrats throughout this year. He is tied with Mike Johnson and Tom Emmer for the fifth-best odds to be the next House Speaker.

Donald Trump Sr. (+2000)

As I mentioned above, Donald Trump is allowed to run for the Speaker position despite not being in Congress. BetOnline has the former President listed at +2000 to win the seat.

Trump has plenty of other issues to concern himself with, though. He is currently the favorite to win the 2024 Presidential Election. Trump also has multiple indictments to deal with in courts across the US.

Despite these issues, I would not be surprised if Trump tried to run for Speaker. So far, he has not denied that he would take the job.

However, I do not think that Trump would win the position. The Freedom Caucus would support Trump, but there would be plenty of other detractors within the GOP. Those detractors would join the Democrats in voting against Trump as Speaker of the House.

Hakeem Jeffries (+2000)

The Democrat with the best odds to be the next Speaker of the House is Hakeem Jeffries (+2000). He is currently the House Minority Leader and was the Dems’ nomination for the seat in January.

So far, Jeffries has been able to keep the Democratic members of the House mostly united. So, I have no doubt that he will once again be nominated for the position of Speaker when the time comes.

However, the Democrats currently do not have enough votes on their own to get Jeffries elected. They would need dozens of GOP members to cross party lines and vote for Jeffries.

Marjorie Taylor Greene (+10000)

The Freedom Caucus was the source of the GOP’s struggles with confirming a Speaker in January. They are also responsible for McCarthy losing the seat less than a year later.

Majorie Tayler Greene (R-GA) was one of the most vocal members of the Freedom Caucus. However, she was voted out of the group in June of this year. MTG is currently listed at +10000 to be the latest next speaker of the House odds.

Next House Speaker Prediction

The GOP is even more fractured now than it was in January. So, electing a new Speaker is unlikely to be an easy task.

Steve Scalise (+100) is the favorite and appears to be the most likely choice. As I mentioned above, I would have concerns about his ongoing health issues. However, there are few other candidates that could rally the support of the GOP members of the House like Scalise.

Kevin Hern (+600) is the best option to bet on if you want to avoid the favorite. However, at the time of writing, Hern has not yet announced his intentions to run.

Scalise and Jim Jordan have already announced they are running and are likely already rallying support. Jordan is likely too extreme for most GOP members of Congress, so I think Scalise is the way to go.

Prediction:

Steve Scalise is the next House Speaker (+100)

Who Do You Think The Next Speaker of the House Will Be?

Kevin McCarthy told far-right members of Congress to oust him if they did not like the job he was doing as Speaker. Matt Gaetz called his bluff, and McCarthy was voted out of his position on October 3rd. Check out the blog above to see the latest next Speaker of the House odds, courtesy of BetOnline.

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Shaun Stack Editor

Shaun Stack is a senior writer at GamblingSites.org. His gambling articles have appeared in the Daily Herald, Space Coast Daily, and NJ 101.5. He’s a football betting expert, a Survivor fan, and a skilled blackjack gambler. Shaun is a native of Kansas City but now lives in Pennsylvania and follows the Pittsburgh Steelers religiously.

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