Next Labour Party Leader Odds and Breakdown
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Sir Keir Starmer has emerged as the odds-on favourite to become the next UK Prime Minister after taking a commanding lead in the polls. The Labour leader is now priced at just 1/6 with Betway to replace Rishi Sunak in Downing Street after the next general election.
However, no job is ever safe for long in the cutthroat world of British politics. Bookies are already taking bets on who will replace Starmer in the hot seat if he falls out of favour. Read on to discover the odds on the next Labour Party leader, and our top tips on this intriguing betting market.
Who Will Succeed Sir Keir Starmer as Labour Party Leader?
Starmer has tightened his grip on the Labour Party since replacing Jeremy Corbyn as leader back in April 2020. His tenure has seen the party move closer to the political centre, and he has set about marginalising figures from the so-called “hard left”.
However, he could still be axed if the landscape shifts. For example, a shock failure to win the next general election would surely mark the end of his reign.
If he is removed as leader of the Labour Party, a centrist Blairite would be his most likely replacement, as opposed to a leftist Corbynite. Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves would be the obvious candidate, but the likes of Andy Burnham and Yvette Cooper could also stake a claim. Longer shots may include Sadiq Khan and David Miliband.
Taking a Look at the Odds on Next Labour Party Leader
It is important to shop around for the best odds when betting on the next leader of the Labour Party. Betway offers quite a few lines on Labour Party odds:
| Candidate | Betway Odds |
|---|---|
| Rachel Reeves | 4/1 |
| Andy Burnham | 6/1 |
| Wes Streeting | 7/1 |
| Angela Rayner | 8/1 |
| Yvette Cooper | 11/1 |
| Lisa Nandy | 11/1 |
Andy Burnham Odds
The Mayor of Greater Manchester is the favourite with several bookies in this market. However, you can find odds of 6/1 at Betway, which looks like a decent price on the popular politician.
Burnham is a former cabinet member who served as Health Secretary under Gordon Brown. He was also the Chief Secretary to the Treasury and the Secretary of State for Culture, Media, and Sport during the Brown government. He finished second to Corbyn in the 2015 leadership contest, before serving as Shadow Home Secretary.
The 54-year-old politician has burnished his reputation since becoming Mayor of Greater Manchester in 2017. He was dubbed “King of the North” after channeling his inner Robb Stark during the Covid-19 pandemic, fighting tirelessly to secure more funding for northern communities. He has been viewed as a future Labour leader ever since, so he looks like a strong contender in this market.
Wes Streeting Odds
Streeting is a rising star in the Labour Party. He grew up in poverty, living in a council flat in London, so he would represent the perfect antidote to Old Etonians like Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees Mogg. Streeting was elected as the MP for Ilford North in 2015 after overturning a substantial Conservative majority, and he has been on an upward trajectory ever since.
He was a vocal critic of Corbyn, railing against the leader’s handling of Brexit and allegations of antisemitism. When Starmer took the reins in 2020, he promoted Streeting to Shadow Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury, making him an opposition frontbencher.
He was promoted to Shadow Secretary of State for Health and Social Care in a 2021 reshuffle, and he was ranked sixth in New Statesman’s Left Power List 2023, referred to as “one of the most prominent and confident members” of the shadow cabinet.
However, it is hard to see Streeting ascending to the party leadership so soon in his political career. He lacks the clout of Burnham or Reeves, so odds of 8/1 on him replacing Starmer as Labour Party leader look unappealing right now.
Rachel Reeves Odds
As the Shadow Chancellor, Reeves is the second-most powerful member of the Labour Party right now. However, she came out on top in New Statesman’s Left Power List 2023, ahead of Starmer, as it described her as “the most influential person on the British left today”.
It capped a remarkable rise to prominence for the 43-year-old Oxford graduate. Reeves worked as an economist at the Bank of England, the British Embassy in Washington DC and HBOS before she was elected as the MP for Leeds West in 2010. She spent five years in the shadow cabinet, before joining the backbenches during Corbyn’s tenure.
Reeves returned to the ascendancy following Starmer’s successful leadership bid in 2020. He brought her back into the shadow cabinet, and she replaced Anneliese Dodds as Shadow Chancellor in 2021. Her cautious, pro-business approach has won over the business community, and commentators have speculated that Labour would be nowhere without her. Some suggest she is the real power in the Labour Party, and she looks well priced at 7/1 to become its next leader.
Other Labour Party Leader Candidates
Yvette Cooper could emerge as a wildcard in the battle to replace Starmer as the next Labour Party leader. She is a genuine heavyweight within the party, having served as the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions and Chief Secretary to the Treasury during the Brown government. Cooper is also married to Ed Balls, the former Chancellor.
She was Shadow Home Secretary under Ed Miliband until 2015, and she finished third in the race to succeed him. Like many centrists, Cooper spent time in the wilderness during the Corbyn years, but she was installed as Shadow Home Secretary under Starmer in 2010.
She has also bolstered her reputation as Chair of the Home Affairs Select Committee, so she looks like an interesting long shot at 12/1.
Lisa Nandy, Angela Rayner, and David Lammy are good ones to avoid in this market. Sadiq Khan also has too much baggage. David Miliband may be worth a punt at 50/1 if you want to back a major outsider. Another option could be Tulip Siddiq, who is 25/1 with some bookies but 66/1 with Betfair.
Tips for How to Bet on Next Labour Leader Odds
- Consider the circumstances in which the next Labour leader will be crowned.
Will it be an orderly procession, with Starmer handing the baton to Reeves many years into the future? Will it come in the next year, with Starmer having lost the general election and the party in turmoil? Or will it be after he loses the following election in 2029? That will have a major impact on who replaces him.
- Hedge your bets.
You can find pretty long odds on any candidates in this market. That means you can easily back multiple contenders and still earn a profit if one of them replaces Starmer. If you back one candidate now, and he or she ends up in a two-horse race with a rival further down the line, you can back the rival contender, ensuring you cover both options and lock in a guaranteed profit.
- Shop for the best odds.
The odds on each candidate vary significantly from one bookie to the next. When you have made your decision, shop around for the best odds on the next Labour Party leader. That can seriously improve the profit you earn, and it will also make hedging easier.
Who Will Succeed Rishi Sunak as Conservative Party Leader?
While Starmer looks secure in his role as Labour Party leader right now, the same cannot be said of Rishi Sunak. The Prime Minister has failed to galvanize the Conservative Party’s fortunes since replacing Liz Truss as Tory leader in October 2022.
His approval ratings sunk to an all-time low in December 2023, according to a YouGov poll, which gave him a net favourability score of -49. That compares to Boris Johnson’s scores during his final months as Prime Minister.
As such, he is likely to be replaced soon. Sunak may cling on until the next election, but he is almost certain to suffer a heavy defeat, as Labour has built up a huge lead in the polls.
Kemi Badenoch is the clear favourite to replace him, followed by Penny Mordaunt and Suella Braverman. James Cleverly is next in the betting, and you can find 20/1 on former PM David Cameron returning to the leadership. Nigel Farage is also 20/1, while you can find 33/1 on Johnson, both of which look very tempting.
Stay Up to Date on Labour Party Leader Odds
Rachel Reeves and Andy Burnham are the leading contenders to replace Sir Keir Starmer as the next Labour Party leader. Reeves would be the most likely candidate if Starmer were to step down for any reason after winning the next general election. Meanwhile, Burnham could be the top choice if Starmer somehow contrives to lose the upcoming election.
You can find compelling odds on both candidates, so it might be worth backing the pair of them if you are interested in this market. Just make sure you shop around for the best prices before having a flutter on the next Labour leader odds.
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