How to Bet $100 on the Kentucky Derby – An Expert Pick
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If you’d like to bet $100 on the Kentucky Derby, you can check out our expert picks on the big race below.
The field will be stacked with talented thoroughbreds, so our handicappers conducted in-depth assessments of each contender. They eventually narrowed the field down to a handful of elite runners, who should be able to outgun their rivals in the Kentucky Derby.
Best Bets for the Kentucky Derby 2024
We gave our handicappers a $100 bankroll and asked them to divide it into a series of bets on the Kentucky Derby. After a fierce debate, they eventually settled on their Kentucky Derby best bets, which are laid out below.
$35 to Win: Fierceness (+250 to win at Bovada)
Many experts anticipate a two-horse race between Fierceness and Sierra Leone. They are the two standout contenders in the field, and they are the clear favorites in the futures betting on the Kentucky Derby.
However, Fierceness looks like the superior runner. He was the two-year-old champion colt last year, and he produced an astonishing performance in the $1 million Florida Derby on March 30, beating the field by 13 ½ lengths. That was the largest winning margin in the G1 race’s 76-year history.
Fierceness is inconsistent. He could only finish third in the G3 Holy Bull Stakes in February, and he struggled in last year’s G1 Champagne Stakes too. However, if he replicates his performance in the Florida Derby, he should be far too strong for his opponents.
Much will depend on the post-position draw, which takes place on Saturday, April 27. If he draws to the far inside, it will dent his chances of success, as the last 12 winners of the Kentucky Derby were drawn in gate 5 or higher, but a favorable draw will make it difficult for anyone to stop Fierceness.
$20 to Place: Forever Young (+375)
Forever Young is an exciting Japanese thoroughbred, who has won all five starts so far. He has earned more than $2 million in prize money after clinching a series of big races, including the Saudi Derby, the UAE Derby, and the G1 Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun.
The Yoshito Yahagi-trained superstar will now bid to become the first Japanese winner of the Kentucky Derby. He has been more consistent than Fierceness, and he also has the pace to get the better of Sierra Leone.
Forever Young produced a strong finish when winning the 1 3/16 mile UAE Derby in his last start. He ran the final three furlongs (3/8 mile) in 36.63 seconds, which is encouraging. Nine of the last 12 Kentucky Derby winners ran the last 3/8 mile of their final prep races in under 38 seconds. Just one runner in the field beat Forever Young in this metric: Catching Freedom.
A place bet will pay out if Forever Young finishes either first or second. If you want a more aggressive option, bet on him to win the race, and if you want to be more cautious, you can bet on him to show.
$10 to Show: Catching Freedom (+260)
Catching Freedom is third in the Kentucky Derby point standings, behind only Sierra Leone and Fierceness, after winning the G2 Louisiana Derby in March. He rallied from deep and surged past his rivals, despite going wide around the far turn. Catching Freedom then held off a marauding Honor Marie to win the race by a length.
He completed the final 3/8 mile in 36.58 seconds and the final 1/8 mile in 12.05 seconds. That was quicker than the finish Forever Young achieved in the UAE Derby and the finish that Fierceness produced in the Florida Derby.
Catching Freedom has won three of his four career starts. The only defeat came in February when he finished 1 ¼ lengths behind Sierra Leone in the G2 Risen Star. However, he looked a lot sharper in the Louisiana Derby, and if he maintains his upward curve, he will be a formidable contender in the big race. A show bet pays if he finishes first, second, or third.
$10 to Show: Honor Marie (+500)
Honor Marie is another intriguing contender for the Kentucky Derby. The promising colt already has a win at Churchill Downs under his belt, having triumphed in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes back in November.
He was disappointing in the Risen Star earlier this year, finishing 2 ¼ lengths behind Sierra Leone in fifth place. However, he also caught the eye with his performance in the Louisiana Derby. He ran the final 3/8 mile in 37.01 seconds and the final 1/8 mile in 12.17 seconds, which was pretty close to Catching Freedom.
Honor Marie is a long shot for the Kentucky Derby, but we have seen a lot of surprises in recent years. Mage defied odds of 15-1 last year, and Rich Strike was an 80-1 winner in 2022, so a $10 bet on Honor Marie to show looks appealing.
$10 Quinella: Fierceness and Forever Young (+1200)
A quinella simply requires you to predict the first two horses to finish the race in any order. Most quinellas will probably feature Fierceness and Sierra Leone, but it is hard to leave Forever Young out.
He has the pace and staying power to win this race, so the Japanese thoroughbred could give Fierceness a run for his money. A bet on Fierceness and Forever Young to make up the top two in this race looks attractive.
$12 First Four Box: Fierceness, Forever Young, Catching Freedom, and Honor Marie (+10000)
A first four boxed bet requires you to name the top four finishers in any order. That is naturally difficult, but it can result in large payouts.
We like the idea of placing Fierceness, Forever Young, Catching Freedom, and Honor Marie in a box. At Bovada, that grouping has +10000 odds to end the race as the first four finishers.
Winning this bet with a $12 wager pays out $1,200!
$3 to Win: Epic Ride (+4000 to win at Bovada)
It is always fun to throw a few bucks on a long shot when betting on the Kentucky Derby. One that stands out is Epic Ride.
He has made four starts in his career, and he has never finished outside the top three. Epic Ride was third in the G1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in April, 5 ¾ lengths behind Sierra Leone, but he is a tenacious horse, who could spring a surprise at Churchill Downs.
A $3 flier on a sleeper like Epic Ride would pay out $120 if he wins.
Where Can I Bet on the Kentucky Derby?
If you’re looking for a reputable site to place your Kentucky Derby best bets, there are a few options to consider:
These sites all accept fixed-odds futures wagers on the Kentucky Derby, so you can place your win bets right now. They also offer pari-mutuel betting, so you will be able to put on place, show, quinella, and trifecta wagers as the race approaches. They also provide generous sign-up bonuses, secure payouts, and reliable customer service, so we recommend them to anyone who plans to bet $100 on the Kentucky Derby.
Kentucky Derby Betting Summary
Now you know how to bet on the Kentucky Derby, it’s time to make your plays. It should take no more than a minute or two to sign up with one of our recommended online racebooks, and they all offer instant deposits too.
We have explained the reasoning behind our best bets on the Kentucky Derby, but we encourage you to conduct your own research and make sure you agree. Check the runners’ past performance data and then place your 2024 Kentucky Derby bets from a position of strength.
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