2024 Election Odds: Could Kamala Harris Defeat Donald Trump in 2024?
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Could Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump in a presidential election? President Joe Biden has dropped out of the race, leaving Harris to lead the democratic ticket this November. As the current Vice President, Harris has the easiest path, in theory, to replacing Biden as the nominee.
Political betting sites have Harris as the favorite to replace Biden, but winning the nomination is only half the battle. Harris would then have to defeat Trump in the 2024 election to become President. So, now that Biden has dropped out, could Kamala Harris, as his likely replacement, beat Donald Trump?
Updated 2024 Election Odds
Last Update: September 13, 2024
The first, and potentially only, debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is in the books. Most pundits agree that Harris won the debate, and Trump has refused to commit to a second debate. Despite the outcome of the ABC debate, the 2024 election odds have remained largely unchanged.
Here are the latest 2024 election odds, courtesy of BetOnline Sportsbook.
| Candidate | 2024 Election Odds | Odds on 8/28 | Odds on 8/21 |
| Kamala Harris | -120 | -120 | -105 |
| Donald Trump Sr. | +100 | +100 | -115 |
| Any other candidate | +2500 | +2000 | +1200 |
Kamala Harris (-120)
Kamala Harris’s first presidential debate could not have gone much better. The Vice President was clearly prepared for every question the moderators threw at her. Harris also baited Trump throughout the debate and had the former President on defense throughout the event.
Despite her performance, Harris’s 2024 election odds have remained unchanged. She was listed as the -120 favorite to win the election at the end of August. The post-debate election polls are out, but Harris remains listed at -120.
Harris immediately called for another debate, which would give her another chance to defeat Trump and persuade voters. Regardless of whether there is another debate, Harris must do everything she can to get in front of a camera and talk to undecided voters to win swing states in 2024.
Donald Trump Sr. (+100)
On the flip side, Donald Trump Sr. had a poor debate performance against Harris. He frequently changed topics and dodged questions, which is not unusual for a politician in a debate. However, Trump’s choice of topics to discuss included several extreme conspiracy theories, including immigrants eating pets in Ohio.
Trump claimed to have won the debate, but most polls show the opposite. The new good news for Trump is that undecided voters were not as swayed by Harris’s performance as the VP had hoped. As a result, like Harris, Trump remains listed at +100, the same odds he was available before the debate.
In the spin room immediately following the debate, Trump was undecided about having another debate. Since then, he has been adamant about not debating Harris again. He could reverse course, especially if Harris continues to bait him into another showdown.
Latest Harris vs. Trump Polls
The debate has not caused a significant shift in the 2024 election betting odds yet. National election polls have also remained largely unchanged, with Harris holding a slight lead over Trump.
| Poll | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Leader |
| 270toWin | 48.08% | 46.54% | Harris (1.6%) |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 47% | 42% | Harris (5%) |
| The Economist | 49.4% | 46.3% | Harris (3.1%) |
More Harris vs. Trump Election Odds
Experienced sports bettors know the importance of shopping for the best value before placing your bets. Harris is the favorite at top political betting sites. Depending on whether you are betting on Trump or Harris, the value changes from one site to another.
| Political Sportsbook | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump Sr. |
| BetOnline Sportsbook | -120 | +100 |
| Bovada Sportsbook | -115 | -105 |
| Everygame Sportsbook | -125 | +100 |
| BetUS Sportsbook | -130 | +100 |
| MyBookie Sportsbook | -125 | +100 |
Last Update: August 28, 2024
With the DNC in the rearview mirror, it is officially Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump on the ticket this November. Check out the table below for the latest Harris vs. Trump 2024 election odds, courtesy of BetOnline Sportsbook.
| Candidate | 2024 Election Odds | Odds on August 21st | Odds on Aug. 15th | Odds on Aug. 8th |
| Kamala Harris | -120 | -105 | -135 | -110 |
| Donald Trump Sr. | +100 | -115 | +115 | +100 |
| Any Other | +2000 | +1200 | N/A | N/A |
Michelle Obama had the third-best 2024 election odds three weeks ago at +10000. However, the former First Lady and every other candidate have been replaced by a simple field bet, with “Any Other” candidate listed at +2000 in the current odds.
Kamala Harris (-120)
Vice President Kamala Harris was officially nominated as the Democratic candidate at the DNC last week. Since accepting the nomination, her odds shortened slightly to -120.
Three weeks ago, Harris took over as the favorite at -110. However, her odds did fade slightly in the middle of the DNC. Trump briefly became the favorite, but Harris overtook him again before the DNC was over, and money has been flooding in on the Vice President.
The momentum is certainly on Harris’s side, but there are still over two months until the election. Harris must perform well in the upcoming ABC debate to maintain her momentum and build her lead over Trump.
Donald Trump Sr. (+100)
Former President Donald Trump is listed at even money to win the 2024 election. Trump overtook Harris during the DNC when news broke that he would receive the endorsement from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. RFK Jr. is a former Democrat who had been running his own 2024 campaign.
The bump from a rumored RFK Jr. endorsement did not last long. Trump received the endorsement last week but has fallen behind Harris again in the betting odds.
Trump still has time to make up ground but needs to act quickly. A strong performance during the debate next month could help level the playing field. There are also rumors that Trump may replace JD Vance as his VP running mate.
Updated Popular Vote Odds
Vice President Harris has also extended her lead over Trump in the latest popular vote odds. The Electoral College determines the winner of the actual election, but the popular vote can be a good indicator of how voters are leaning this November.
| Party/Candidate | Odds to Win Popular Vote | Odds July 30th | Odds March 18th |
| Democrats/Harris | -600 | -240 | -300 |
| Republicans/Trump | +300 | +160 | +200 |
Democrats/Harris (-600)
President Biden was listed at -300 to win the popular vote in March. After Biden stepped down and was replaced by Harris, the Democrats’ odds of winning the popular vote faded slightly to -240. In less than a month, Harris has rebuilt her lead over Trump in this market and is now listed at -600 to win the popular vote.
Republicans/Trump (+300)
Republicans have struggled to win the popular vote since the early 1990s. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and 2020, and he is a +300 underdog to win it this November. He peaked at +160 in this market in July but has faded significantly over the last month.
Kamala Harris Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Democrats have won the popular vote in six of the last seven presidential elections and appeared poised to win it again this year. Harris is a heavy favorite in BetOnline’s popular vote margin of victory prop for the 2024- election.
- Harris by 2.50% to 4.99% (+250)
- Harris by 5.00% to 7.49% (+350)
- Harris by 0% to 2.49% (+400)
- Trump by 0% to 2.49% (+425)
- Harris by 7.50% to 9.99% (+800)
- Harris by 10% or higher (+800)
Only one option for Trump, a popular vote victory by 0% to 2.49% (+425), cracks the top five favorites in this betting market. Trump lost the popular vote by 4.45% and 2.09% in 2020 and 2016, respectively, and I believe he will lose it again this year. I think Harris will win by at least 2.50% and would bet on the favorite in this 2024 election prop.
- Harris Wins by 2.5% to 4.99% +250
Updated Electoral College Odds
| Party | Total Electoral College Votes | Over | Under |
| Democrats | Over/Under 269.5 | Over 269.5 (-120) | Under 269.5 (+100) |
| Republicans | Over/Under 311.5 | Over 311.5 (+425) | Under 311.5 (-800) |
Despite the shift in the election odds above, the total electoral college votes have not changed. Democrats are still listed at over/under 269.5 votes, and Republicans are available at over/under 311.5 votes.
What has changed is the odds for each total. Democrats are now a -120 favorite to cover the over on 269.5 votes and win the election. They were listed at +105 to cover their total at the end of July.
On the other hand, Republicans’ odds of covering their total of 311.5 have faded significantly. Trump and the GOP were available at +200 to cover their 311.5 votes, but their odds have faded to +425. Republicans can still win the election, but it is improbable that they will do so in a dominant fashion with over 311.5 votes.
Last Update: July 31, 2024
Kamala Harris assuming the mantel as the presumptive Democratic nominee has changed the 2024 presidential race entirely. The political betting markets for the election have also changed. Harris’s place at the top of the ticket has caused betting markets at BetUS Sportsbook to shift toward Democrats.
Impact of Biden Dropping Out of the Race
President Joe Biden’s election campaign came to a merciful end on July 21st. The President’s campaign was losing steam, and Trump’s 2024 campaign was at an all-time high following the RNC.
Biden’s announcement that he would no longer be running helped to rejuvenate the Democratic voting base. It also gives Democrats a chance to build the perfect ticket to combat the newly formed Trump-Vance ticket. Harris is the favorite to win the popular vote, and the right VP selection could help her win the race to 270 electoral college votes.
Updated Popular Vote Odds
Democrats have largely dominated the popular vote since the 1992 election. The current odds to win the popular vote in 2024 still favor Democrats, even if the switch from Biden to Harris at the top of the ticket.
| Party | Odds to Win Popular Vote | Previous Odds |
| Democrats | -240 | -300 |
| Republicans | +160 | +240 |
Democrats are the -240 favorite to win the popular vote this November. Their odds are down from their -300 peak in March, but Harris and company could see a boost after they name a vice president nominee.
Republicans, on the other hand, have seen their odds shorten from +240 to +160 since March. This boost is not surprising, especially since the RNC was just a few weeks ago. Their odds will likely shift again after Harris names a VP and if Trump tries to replace JD Vance as his running mate.
Updated Electoral College Odds
The odds for the 2024 Electoral College have also shifted in recent months, and both parties’ total votes markets have increased. Check out the table for the latest odds in this political betting market.
| Party | Total Electoral College Votes | Previous Odds |
| Democrats | Over/Under 269.5 Votes | Over/Under 252.5 Votes |
| Republicans | Over/Under 311.5 Votes | Over/Under 286.5 Votes |
Democrats Over/Under
- Over 269.5 votes (+105)
- Under 269.5 votes (-145)
In March, Democrats were listed at over/under 252.5 Electoral College votes, both the over and the under being available at -120 odds. Now, Democrats are listed at over/under 269.5 total votes this November.
The under is the slight favorite at -145, and the over is listed at +105. If the Democrats are able to hit the over, then they will win the election. That will be easier said than done, though, as Harris will need to win multiple swing states that are currently favored to go to Trump.
Harris’s polling numbers have improved in the short time she has been the presumptive nominee. However, she still has a long way to go to beat Trump this November. Harris’s VP pick could make or break her campaign this November.
Republican Over/Under
- Over 311.5 votes (+200)
- Under 311.5 votes (-300)
Republicans have also seen their over/under shift in recent months. In March, the GOP was listed at over/under 286.5 votes. The under was the slight favorite at -135 compared to the over (-105).
When Trump won the 2016 election, he secured 304 electoral votes. To cover the over in this bet, he would need to win another eight votes this time around. Trump would essentially need to win another state, if not two, that he did not win in 2016.
He finished with just 232 electoral votes. So, in addition to winning a new state, Trump would need to win back states, such as Georgia and Arizona, that he lost in 2020. It would also mean winning in a landslide, which seems unlikely at this point in time, given concerns about Trump’s platform and his running mate.
Last Update: July 26, 2024
The 2024 presidential race looks dramatically different than it did just a week ago. Kamala Harris already had better odds to win the election than President Biden, and she is now the presumptive nominee after Biden dropped out of the race. With the party now rallying behind Harris, she has been able to gain a lot of ground on Donald Trump in the latest 2024 election odds.
| Candidate | 2024 Election Odds | Previous Odds |
| Donald Trump Sr. | -175 | -250 |
| Kamala Harris | +150 | +325 |
| Michelle Obama | +1700 | +2800 |
After the former first lady, the election odds at BetOnline fade dramatically. Hillary Clinton, the 2016 democratic nominee, is tied with Arizona Senator Mark Kelly for the fourth-best odds at +10000. California Gov. Gavin Newsom rounds out the top six at +12500.
Donald Trump Sr. (-175)
A week ago, former President Donald Trump Sr. was listed as the -250 favorite to win the 2024 election. Trump’s odds have faded since then, but he is still the favorite at -175.
Trump’s odds have shortened as far as -300 in recent weeks, but the change in his opponent has reset the entire market. Picking JD Vance as his running mate has also not helped the Trump campaign. The GOP’s mixed messaging on issues like abortion has hurt the campaign as well.
Republicans have tried to attack the new presumptive Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, but they have had mixed results. Focusing on Harris’s gender and racial identity has largely backfired. In fact, the GOP had to ask party members to stop commenting on Harris’s race.
Kamala Harris (+150)
Vice President Kamala Harris has assumed the mantle as the presumptive Democratic nominee after President Biden announced he would not be continuing his campaign. Harris was already ahead of Biden in the betting odds even before he officially dropped out. The Vice President was listed at +325, compared to +675 for Biden.
Harris’s odds have shortened from +325 down to +150. Her fundraising has also skyrocketed in the days since Biden withdrew from the race. According to reports, Harris raised a record-setting $81 million in just 24 hours after her presidential campaign started over the weekend.
There is a lot of momentum behind Harris, but the election is still over three months away. If she has any chance of defeating Trump, then Harris needs to keep building momentum to ensure her voters actually show up on Election Day.
Is Kamala Harris a Lock to Be the Democratic Nominee?
Shortly after announcing his withdrawal from the race, President Biden endorsed Vice President Harris as his replacement. The party has also quickly rallied behind the Vice President, and all signs point toward Harris being at the top of the ticket this November.
However, she is not the official nominee yet. The Democratic ticket will not be made official until the DNC in August. It is unlikely that anyone other than Harris will be the nominee, though, and BetOnline has Harris listed at -5000 to become the official nominee.
In addition to having the support of party leadership, Harris also has enough delegates to win the nomination. Other potential replacements for Biden, such as Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg, have also endorsed Harris rather than trying to run against her for the nomination. At this point, the bigger question is who Harris will pick for her running mate.
Who Will Harris Pick as Her Running Mate?
Harris has already started to gain ground on Trump in the 2024 election odds. Picking the right Vice President could help Harris close the gap entirely. So, who will Harris pick as her VP running mate?
The Harris campaign is already vetting potential Vice Presidents, and the campaign has to move quickly. Some of the top contenders include:
- Arizona Senator Mark Kelly (+120)
- Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (+290)
- North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (+550)
- Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (+1200)
Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz are tied for Beshear at 12-1 odds. Many of the contenders above are from battleground states that Harris will need to win to have a chance to beat Trump. I would pick Shapiro since PA has 19 electoral votes, but a Navy veteran and former astronaut like Kelly could also be a strong running mate.
Why Did Biden Drop Out?
The first presidential debate could not have gone much worse for Biden, at least from an optics perspective. He was extremely soft-spoken, hard to understand, and at times seemed confused. The Biden camp has claimed the President was sick, and his detractors have used the debate performance as evidence of Biden’s mental decline.
Regardless of why Biden performed poorly, the debate negatively affected the President’s polling data and odds of winning the election. Bovada Sportsbook, one of the top-rated sportsbooks for political odds, had Biden listed at +700 to win the election this November.
Biden trailed Donald Trump (-280) and was also behind Kamala Harris (+600). The President and Vice President were both listed at +115 to be the Democratic nominee, but Biden was listed as a +115 underdog to be the nominee against the field (-150).
The pressure from within the Democratic party for Biden to step aside continued to grow as the party became less unified behind the President. His gaffes at the NATO summit accelerated calls for Biden to step aside. Contracting COVID-19 and being forced to quarantine himself severely limited any chances Biden may have had to rally support.
Biden Replacement Odds
After weeks of mounting pressure, Biden finally announced his decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential election. Finding the right replacement for Biden could be easier said than done, though. Afterall, the Democrats need to choose a candidate that they could rally around in just a few months if they want to beat Trump in November.
Here are the current odds to be the Democratic nominee for candidates not named Joe Biden, according to Bovada.
- Kamala Harris (-1600)
- Michelle Obama (+2000)
- Hillary Clinton (+5000)
- Gavin Newsom (+7500)
- Gretchen Whitmer (+7500)
- JB Pritzker (+10000)
- Josh Shapiro (+10000)
Vice President Harris is the clear front-runner at -1600 odds. The potential replacement with the next-best odds is Michelle Obama at +2000. Former presidential nominee Hillary Clinton rounds out the top three of potential replacements at +5000.
Kamala Harris as Biden’s Replacement
A major part of Kamala Harri’s duties as Vice President is replacing President Biden as necessary. Her role also gives her plenty of name recognition and would provide her with an easy stepping stone to a presidential campaign of her own. In the days after Bidebn’s announcement to drop out of the race, the President and many other party leaders have rallied behind Harris.
Before becoming Vice President, Harris served four years as a Senator for California. She also spent six years as the Attorney General of California and seven years as the District Attorney of San Francisco. Her experience as a prosecutor has helped Harris turn into a fierce debate opponent.
Harris played a key role in helping attract voters to the Biden campaign in 2020, especially among minorities and female voters. These voters will likely continue to support Harris as the presumptive presidential nominee.
She is not a perfect candidate, though, and Harris would face several obstacles in a race against Trump. It would start with rallying enough support in her own party to be nominated.
Any Biden replacement would also be short on time in terms of gaining the support of voters before this November. Republicans have already started to attack Harris at the RNC, so she may already be behind the ball. Harris’s record as a prosecutor would also be subject to criticism, which could create additional issues from both sides for the self-proclaimed “progressive prosecutor.”
Comparing Harris with Other Potential Candidates
BetOnline, another top sportsbook for political betting, has special odds on head-to-head markets between Trump and potential Democratic nominees. Biden was the +200 underdog in a head-to-head against Trump (-300).
Harris had slightly better odds in a Harris vs. Trump head-to-head. She was listed at +160 odds, compared to Trump’s -225 before Biden dropped out. While her odds are better than Biden’s, Harris does not have the best odds of any potential Democratic nominee in a head-to-head with Trump.
Michelle Obama
- Odds to beat Trump = -170
- Odds to lose to Trump = +130
The only candidate that BetOnline has favored in a head-to-head with Trump is former First Lady Michelle Obama. There is no denying her name recognition, and she was one of the most popular first ladies in recent memory. Naming Michelle as the nominee could rejuvenate voters and raise morale in the party in general.
Despite her efforts while her husband was President, though, Michelle lacks experience as an elected official herself. She would also have little to no time to prepare for any presidential debates. A strong running mate could elevate some concerns, but there would still be plenty for undecided voters and the GOP to criticize.
Gavin Newsom
- Odds to beat Trump = +100
- Odds to lose to Trump = -140
Another candidate with relatively favorable odds against Trump in a head-to-head market is California Gov. Gavin Newsom. Despite being listed behind Harris in the odds to win the nomination, Newsom has better odds to beat Trump in November. Newsom is listed at even money while Trump is the slight favorite at -140.
Newsom has been proposed as a replacement for Biden for months.. He may be a potential candidate in 2028, but Newsom’s odds of winning the nomination and the 2024 election have faded significantly in recent weeks.
Gretchen Whitmer
- Odds to beat Trump = +125
- Odds to lose to Trump = -165
Another governor who could step up to replace Biden is Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. She is listed at +125 to beat Trump (-165) in a hypothetical head-to-head. Whitmer has slowly but surely climbed the ranks in the Democratic party since taking over as governor in the Wolverine State in 2019.
She has plenty of experience battling MAGA in Michigan, but Whitmer still lacks national name recognition. Whitmer could struggle to transition to the national level relative to governors of larger states like Newsom.
Hillary Clinton
- Odds to beat Trump = +150
- Odds to lose to Trump = -200
Former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton also has better odds than Biden or Harris to defeat Trump. She is still the underdog against Trump (-200), but Clinton’s +150 odds are better than either candidate currently assumed to be on the Democratic ticket.
Clinton has name recognition and plenty of political experience. However, she has already lost to Trump once, and nominating Clinton again could significantly damage voter morale and turnout.
JB Pritzker and Josh Shapiro
JB Pritzker and Josh Shapiro, the governors of Illinois and Pennsylvania, respectively, are also potential replacements for Biden. However, BetOnline does not currently offer head-to-head odds for these long shots. Pritzker and Shapiro’s odds to replace Biden have faded significantly in recent days.
Both Pritzker and Shapiro have significant support within their states, but they would likely struggle to gain support nationally. There is simply not enough time left before the election for them to rally voters. However, they could be great vice president candidates on a new ticket.
Harris vs. Trump Polls
One reason Harris has better odds of beating Trump than Biden is the recent polling data. According to a recent poll from the New York Times, Harris runs two points ahead of Biden in key states like Pennsylvania and Virginia. This poll was completed before Biden dropped out, and the trend is consistent in the NYT polls, dating back to last November.
Not only is Harris ahead of Biden, but she is also one point ahead of Trump among all likely voters. Her success with female voters and minorities is just enough to put her ahead of the former President in Kamala vs. Trump polls.
The poll in question was completed before the shooting at Trump’s PA rally. However, Harris has run well against Trump relative to Biden for months. Based on recent reports, Harris’s success in recent polls could be enough to convince Biden to step down.
Would Kamala Harris Beat Trump?
Could Kamla Harris beat Trump in the 2024 election? The sitting Vice President is currently the presumptive replacement for Biden to be at the top of the Democratic ticket.
A Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump election is the likely outcome for this November. Harris does not have the best head-to-head odds against Trump, but she does have the best odds of any Biden replacement to win the election. Make sure you sign up at Bovada Sportsbook to stay up to date on the latest 2024 election odds.
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