2024 Election Odds: Could Trump Replace Vance as VP?
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Despite being definitively behind North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum in the 2024 Trump VP odds, Ohio Senator JD Vance was selected as Donald Trump’s running mate. The decision to name Vance as the Vice President nominee was a surprise, and it has been widely criticized in the days since the RNC.
The heavy criticism and poor polling numbers have many wondering, could Trump replace Vance? This political betting guide will explore the possibility of Trump replacing Vance on the 2024 Republican Ticket. I will highlight the current odds at top political betting sites of Vance being replaced and discuss other potential VP picks for Trump.
Vance Removal Odds
JD Vance was a top contender in the Trump VP odds prior to the RNC, but he was behind the favorite Doug Burgum. According to reports, Trump planned to choose Burgum but was convinced by his sons to side with Vance instead.
Vance was a major critic of Trump ahead of the 2016 election, but he has slowly but surely become one of the former President’s biggest supporters. From a strategic standpoint, though, Vance brings very little to the ticket. His numerous media blunders have also created plenty of criticism for the junior Senator.
As a result, many political pundits have wondered if Trump will try to find a replacement for Vance on the 2024 ticket. Here are the latest Vance replacement odds, courtesy of BetOnline Sportsbook.
- Vance will be replaced (+550)
- Vance will not be replaced (-1000)
Vance is favored to remain Trump’s running mate, for now, but that could change in the coming weeks. If Vance continues to be a drag on the Trump ticket, then the GOP could attempt to replace the Senator on the GOP ticket. His chances of being replaced only increase the more it looks like Harris could beat Trump.
Vance Replacement Odds Analysis
Vance is a heavy favorite to remain as Trump’s vice presidential running mate, at least for now. However, the fact that his place on the ticket is already being called into question could be cause for concern. Vance was announced as the VP nominee during the RNC, which was less than a month ago.
In the few weeks since critics on both sides of the aisle have targeted Vance. He has been criticized for his political views, including calling for a total abortion ban, as well as his less-than-stellar speaking engagements since becoming the nominee.
Key Factors Influencing the Odds
There is no denying that adding Vance to the ticket did not receive the reception Republicans were hoping for. According to many reports, Vance is the first vice president pick since 1980 to have a net-negative effect support for a party after its convention.
Despite the negative reception so far, though, it would be challenging for Vance to be replaced. Trump was the presumed nominee for months, but he was only officially confirmed as the oldest presidential nominee of a major party ever at the RNC. Vance was confirmed alongside Trump as his vice president.
The GOP has fewer than 100 days to replace Vance. To do this, the party would have to devise a plan to circumvent the RNC results. They would also need another convention to confirm their new nominee, whoever that is.
Between the short amount of time before the election and the legal hurdles in the way, it would be difficult to remove Vance from the ticket. If Vance elected to step down, though, then the GOP would have no choice but to let Trump pick a new running mate.
Who Could Replace Vance as Trump’s Vice President?
Prior to the RNC, Vance was one of the top candidates in the Republican VP candidate odds. He was ahead of other top candidates like Tim Scott and Marco Rubio, but Vance was behind Doug Burgum in the betting odds.
With concerns of Vance potentially being replaced on the rise, BetOnline has new odds available for Trump’s VP pick.
| Candidate | Vance Replacement Odds | Trump VP Odds Before RNC |
| Doug Burgum | +225 | +175 |
| Ben Carson | +400 | +600 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | +700 | N/A* |
| Tim Scott | +700 | +2000 |
| Elise Stefanik | +800 | N/A* |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | +1000 | N/A* |
| Nikki Haley | +1200 | N/A* |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | +1400 | +1400 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr | +1400 | N/A* |
*Longer than 20-1 odds
Doug Burgum (+225)
Heading into the RNC, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum was the favorite in the Trump VP betting odds. Multiple outlets have reported that Trump wanted Burgum as his vice president. Despite being passed over for the position, Burgum has already hit the campaign trail in support of the former president, and he is the +225 favorite to replace Vance.
Of the criticisms being levied at Vance, one of the most damning is that he is taking attention away from Trump himself. Burgum would not do that, and he still offers the other benefits that come with having Vance on the ticket. North Dakota is worth fewer electoral college votes than Ohio, but Trump is not in danger of losing either state this November.
Burgum, like Vance, has criticized Trump in the past but is now a major supporter of the former president. If Vance is ousted, then Burgum will likely resume his position as the favorite to be Trump’s running mate.
Tim Scott (+700)
Another former favorite to join Trump on the GOP ticket is South Carolina Senator Tim Scott. Trump made a point of praising Scott during the first presidential debate, which made many think Scott was going to be chosen as the vice presidential nominee. However, Scott’s odds of being Trump’s VP faded from +300 on June 14th to +2000 ahead of the RNC.
Ultimately, Scott was passed over for the job. However, now that Kamala Harris is the presumptive Democratic nominee and not Joe Biden, Scott could have another chance to join Trump on the ticket this November.
Scott is tied for the third-best odds to replace Vance at +700 and would offer an important advantage for Trump. Many of Harris’s potential running mates are from the East Coast, such as Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro or North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper. If Harris does pick a nominee from the East Coast, then adding Scott to the ticket could help Trump battle for votes in a swing state.
Nikki Haley (+1200)
Nikki Haley was the last, somewhat successful holdout facing Trump in the Republican primaries this year. She became the face of the anti-Trump movement in the GOP. However, after she endorsed Trump and was a late invitee to the RNC, many of her former supporters have opted to support Harris instead.
Haley Voters for Harris, for instance, is a PAC targeting anti-Trump Republican voters who used to support Haley. Some members of the PAC used to work for the Haley campaign and have found a new way to express their anti-Maga sentiments.
BetOnline has Harris listed at +1200 to be Vance’s replacement. Adding Haley to the ticket could help Trump attract new voters who are currently against the former President. Reuniting MAGA voters with the anti-Trump portions of the GOP could be Trump’s best chance at retaking the White House this fall.
Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio was another candidate floated for months as Trump’s potential running mate. Rubio peaked at +500 odds in June but faded quickly to +1400 ahead of the RNC in July.
Rubio is currently not available in the opening Vance replacement odds. However, with Harris at the top of the Democrats’ ticket, Rubio could be back as a top contender to replace JD Vance sooner rather than later.
Since taking over as the Democratic nominee, Harris has rallied support across the democratic party, especially among minority voters. The GOP has done its best to combat this by accusing Harris of being a DEI hire, but that has largely backfired. Adding Rubio to the ticket could help mobile minority voters, especially Latinos, to vote for Trump.
Picking Rubio is easier said than done, though, as he and Trump both reside in Florida. One of them would have to move as the president and vice president on the same ticket cannot be from the same state.
Could Trump Replace JD Vance?
Speculating about a replacement for Vance could be putting the cart in front of the horse, so to speak. For now, Trump and his camp have continued to support Vance’s palace on the 2024 ticket. If that changes, though, could Trump replace Vance as his running mate?
There is no mechanism in place to remove a VP nominee after the party’s nominating convention. So, Vance would have to willingly step down to be replaced. It would be challenging to convince him to do it, but Trump could, in theory, pull enough strings to make it happen.
I believe Trump will try to replace Vance if their polling numbers do not improve. With Vance out of the way, the GOP would have to scramble to arrange a new RNC. They would need to work quickly to get a new nominee and confirm them so they can start campaigning for the November election.
Will Trump Try to Replace Vance as His Vice President?
Since JD Vance joined the Republican ticket in 2024, the discourse surrounding the election has been less than positive for the GOP. In addition to being an unpopular pick, Trump and Vance now face a ticket headlined by Kamala Harris instead of Joe Biden. Many are now speculating that Vance could be replaced, and new 2024 Trump VP odds are available as a result.
Check out the guide above to see the latest 2024 VP odds for Vance being replaced on the ticket. I break down the current odds and outline scenarios for Vance being replaced. Then, sign up at BetOnline to bet on the latest 2024 election odds.
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