Early Look at MLB MVP Odds and Predictions
Author: 
We’re three months into the 2024 MLB season and with that, we’ve got a pretty good picture of how the MLB MVP odds are shaping up. This year’s race features plenty of familiar faces and former winners like Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Bryce Harper as well as some intriguing dark horses to keep an eye on, such as Gunnar Henderson of the Baltimore Orioles.
AL MVP Odds
| 2024 AMERICAN LEAGUE MVP ODDS | |
| PLAYER | ODDS |
| Aaron Judge | -180 |
| Gunnar Henderson | +450 |
| Juan Soto | +650 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | +650 |
| Jose Ramirez | +2800 |
| Steven Kwan | +6000 |
New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge is the early runaway favorite for the American League MVP, leading the majors in RBI (77), home runs (30), slugging percentage (.700), and offensive WAR (5.5), while ranking in the top 10 in batting average (.304). Judge is just two years removed from his first MVP title when he set an AL record with 62 dingers and it’s clear why he’s the odds-on favorite to win it again.
If you’re looking to potentially cash in on a dark horse pick, though, Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson is your man. The 23-year-old sits right behind Judge with 25 home runs and a .607 slugging percentage, while he also ranks top five among AL batters in RBI (55), on-base percentage (.383), and on-base plus slugging (.990).
Meanwhile, Henderson holds a clear edge over Judge in the field, where his 1.1 defensive WAR is tied for seventh-best in the majors. Voters tend to favor offensive performance but if Henderson can keep pace with Judge at the plate while continuing to play elite defense, we could see him steal this year’s AL MVP award.
AL MVP Pick: Gunnar Henderson (+450)
NL MVP Odds
| 2024 NATIONAL LEAGUE MVP ODDS | |
| PLAYER | ODDS |
| Shohei Ohtani | -130 |
| Bryce Harper | +200 |
| Freddie Freeman | +1400 |
| Marcell Ozuna | +1600 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | +2500 |
| Ketel Marte | +2500 |
After capturing the AL MVP award in both 2021 and 2023 with the Los Angeles Angels, Shohei Ohtani has lived up to the hype in his first year with the Dodgers and looks to be on pace to become the second player in MLB history to be named MVP in each league following Hall of Famer Frank Robinson.
Despite not pitching this season while he recovers from Tommy John surgery, Ohtani is still providing plenty of value to the Dodgers at the plate. He tops the National League in home runs (25), batting average (.320), slugging percentage (.634) and on-base percentage (1.032) while ranking third in the majors in WAR (4.5).
Bryce Harper, who was named NL MVP in 2016 and 2021, has also made a strong case for his third career award. The Phillies slugger is third in the NL with 20 home runs, fourth with 57 RBI and top three in on-base percentage (.402), slugging percentage (.590), and on-base plus slugging (.992). Harper’s 3.6 WAR also ranks second in the NL behind only Ohtani.
Harper actually started the season ice cold, batting just .230 through April, but he quickly turned it around in May. Since the start of May, Harper has more hits than Ohtani (62 vs. 55) and has continued to heat up in June, leading the NL with an astounding .372 batting average this month. If Harper can keep this up, he should narrow the gap and make this a very close race down the stretch.
NL MVP Pick: Bryce Harper (+200)
Division Futures and MLB MVP Odds
Team performance often goes hand in hand with MVP voting, which could especially be a boon for Aaron Judge as his Yankees currently sit atop both the AL East and overall AL standings. The Pinstripes currently own the best odds to win the American League at +200 as well as the AL East at -250.
Gunnar Henderson’s Orioles rank second in both races at +375 and +200, respectively, while sitting just two games back of the Yankees. If the shortstop can help his club overtake New York down the stretch, it’ll certainly help his case as AL MVP.
In the National League, both Ohtani’s Dodgers and Harper’s Phillies lead their respective divisions by a landslide so we could see both teams battling for the NL pennant at season’s end. Despite the Phillies owning the best winning percentage in the NL, MLB odds actually have the Dodgers as the favorite to take home the pennant at +150, with Philadelphia following at +225.
Both the NL pennant and NL MVP races will likely go down to the wire, so it’ll be interesting to see Ohtani and Harper duke it out for their third MVP award.
Why Get in Early on the MLB MVP Odds?
The MLB season is at its halfway point but there’s still plenty of time to get in early on the MLB MVP odds. Here’s why you should consider placing your bets now:
- Better/longer odds at the best sports betting sites at this point of the season, so potential payouts are bigger
- Plenty of time for players to get hot and move up the rankings
- Odds get less profitable once favorites establish themselves later in the season
Keep an Eye on the MVP Odds
The MLB MVP odds are heating up with star players Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Bryce Harper leading the way once again, but some intriguing names like Gunnar Henderson are keeping this year’s race interesting.
With the Yankees, Orioles, Dodgers, and Phillies all in the mix for their respective division and league titles, this season’s MVP awards could rely heavily on team performance down the stretch.
Judge and Ohtani are the current favorites according to the AL MVP odds and NL MVP odds, respectively, but there’s still time for other players to make their mark with half the season left to play.
Contact Chris
