NFL Week 11 Best Bets and Predictions
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The two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs headline my best bets for NFL Week 11. Kansas City (9-0) is undefeated but is an underdog for the first this season as they travel to Buffalo to face the Bills. There are also six road teams who are betting favorites this week.
This guide will break down the best NFL bets for Week 11. I will tell you the odds for every game and highlight my favorite bets at the top NFL sportsbooks this week.
Bovada Sportsbook provided the odds for my NFL best bets in Week 11.
Week 11 Schedule
- Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-4.0)
- Green Bay Packers (-5.0) vs. Chicago Bears
- Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions (-14.0)
- Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins (-7.0)
- Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) vs. New England Patriots
- Cleveland Browns (-1.0) vs. New Orleans Saints
- Baltimore Ravens (-3.0) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Minnesota Vikings (-6.0) vs. Tennessee Titans
- Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets (-4.0)
- Atlanta Falcons vs. Denver Broncos (-2.5)
- Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)
- Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills (-2.0)
- Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)
- Houston Texans (-7.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Best NFL Week 11 Point Spreads
The Panthers (+6.5), Vikings (-4.5), Patriots (+6.5), and Eagles (-7.0) all covered their spreads last week, giving me a 4-0 week. Minnesota’s 12-7 win was closer than it should have been, but they did enough to cover the spread.
Here are my NFL Week 11 best bets.
Indianapolis Colts (+4.0) vs. New York Jets (-115)
The Jets (3-7) failed to score a touchdown in their 31-6 loss in Arizona last week. New York has struggled on both sides of the ball this season, and their playoff hopes are all but gone. Despite that, the Jets are 4.0-point favorites at home this weekend against Indianapolis (4-6).
Indy has had its fair share of struggles this season, most of which stemmed from the quarterback position. After two weeks of the Joe Flacco experiment, the Colts are going back to Anthony Richardson at quarterback. The second-year quarterback was benched earlier this season for poor play on the field.
I would be more confident in the Colts covering the 4.0-point spread if Flacco were the starter. However, even with Richardson under center, Indianapolis can pull off the upset this week. Indy has Jonathan Taylor, one of the most explosive backs in the NFL, and the Jets have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards in the league.
Cleveland Browns (-1.0) vs. New Orleans Saints (-110)
Another road team I want to highlight in my Week 11 NFL best bets is the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland is coming off a bye and is favored by one point this week against the Saints in New Orleans.
The Saints upset the Falcons last week, but they needed Younghoe Koo to miss three field goals to do it. Cleveland is far from perfect, but they will be the healthier and better-rested team this week. New Orleans will be without its two best receivers, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, who are both on IR.
Cleveland must win the line of scrimmage to come out on top. If the Browns bottle up Alvin Kamara while also controlling the clock with their own rushing attack, they will beat the Saints this week.
Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) vs. Denver Broncos (-110)
Speaking of the Falcons, Atlanta is a 2.5-point underdog against the Broncos this week in Denver. The Falcons lost the Saints last week, ending Atlanta’s two-game win streak. Denver, on the other hand, has lost back-to-back games to the Ravens and the Chiefs.
This game will come down to which Broncos team shows up on Sunday. Atlanta has the offensive weapons to run up the score if Denver plays like it did in Week 9. I also think the Falcons have the advantage in a close game, and Atlanta has a great chance to win this game outright, let alone cover.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions (-11.5) (-150)
Rounding out my best NFL Week 11 spread bets is this alternate point spread for the Detroit Lions. Secure sportsbooks have the Lions listed as 14.0-point favorites against the Jaguars. The Lions will win, but betting on any team to cover a two-touchdown spread is risky in the NFL.
Detroit is available at -800 on the moneyline, so there is little value there, either. Luckily, Bovada offers alternate point spreads, and you can lower the Lions spread to 11.5 and still get -150 odds.
The Lions’ offense struggled early on Sunday Night Football, but they still beat the Texans despite Jared Goff’s five interceptions. Jacksonville’s defense was surprisingly stout in Week 10, picking off Sam Darnold thrice and not allowing a touchdown. They could cause similar issues for Detroit, enough to cover +14.0, but the Lions will cover -11.5 on Sunday.
NFL Week 11 Moneylines and Underdogs
Bovada also offers exciting moneyline odds, which are great for betting on underdogs. I picked three of my four moneyline bets correctly last week. Arizona, Buffalo, and Miami all won, and my only incorrect pick was Washington, which lost to Pittsburgh by one point.
Here are my four best moneyline bets for NFL Week 11.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+150)
I picked against the Steelers last week, and they pulled off the road upset against the Commanders. Pittsburgh (7-2) is an underdog again this week as the Steelers host the Ravens (7-3). The winner of this game will have control of the AFC North heading into the home stretch of the season.
This is Pittsburgh’s first divisional game of the year, and I think they will win it. The Ravens are 2-1 in divisional games this year, but their two wins came in shootouts against the Bengals. Lamar Jackson has a losing record against the Steelers in his career, a trend that will continue this week.
Pittsburgh’s rush defense will be tested, but their passing offense should have its best game of the year against the Ravens’ defense. Baltimore has allowed the most passing yards and passing touchdowns this season. The Ravens’ pass defense will be their Achilles heel this week, allowing the Steelers to pull off the upset win.
Kansas City Chiefs (+105) vs. Buffalo Bills
Another underdog that I think will win outright this week is the Chiefs. Kansas City is a 2.0-point underdog in Buffalo this week. The Chiefs are undefeated, but their offense has left much to be desired this year.
Buffalo has won five straight games and scored at least 30 points in their last four appearances. However, I doubt the Bills’ offense will overcome the Chiefs’ stout defense. Kansas City has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards in the league this season, and the Bills passing offense lacks the talent it has had in previous years.
We have seen the Bills against a great run defense once this season. Baltimore, which has allowed 19 fewer rushing yards than KC, beat the Bills 35-10. Kansas City should be able to recreate a similar performance, smothering Buffalo on the ground for the win.
Green Bay Packers (-235) vs. Chicago Bears
Bovada has thrilling moneyline odds for favorites this week as well. For instance, the Packers are -235 favorites on the roach in Chicago in Week 11.
Green Bay is coming off its bye, and the Bears have lost three straight. To make matters worse for Chicago, they have scored just 27 combined points over its last three games. They have also been held under 10 points in back-to-back weeks.
The Packers have a good defense, and their offense will be able to move the ball at will against a suddenly porous Bears defense. Jordan Love and company have had their fair share of struggles, but they will be good enough to beat Chicago this week.
Houston Texans (-360) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Rounding out my list of the best NFL moneyline bets for Week 11 are the Texans. Houston is a 7.5-point favorite against the Cowboys in Dallas on Monday Night Football this week. The Texans will win this battle of the Lone Star State.
The Texans should score at will against the Cowboys, who have allowed 28.8 PPG this year, second-worst in the NFL. Dallas has also been blown out in every game at home this season, and Cooper Rush will be starting at quarterback. Houston will win this prime-time game to get its season back on track.
What Are Your Best NFL Week 11 Bets?
Multiple division leaders are in my best bets for NFL Week 11, including the Chiefs, Steelers, and Texans. You can find all of my best bet picks for this week in the guide above.
After reading my NFL Week 11 best bets, create your Bovada account today to bet on the latest odds. New members can use the code BV1000 to add up to $1,000 to their NFL Week 11 bankroll.
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