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2025 Kentucky Derby Predictions (and Early Wagers)

Journalism has emerged as the early favorite to win the Kentucky Derby after impressing in a couple of key prep races. However, he will face fierce competition from champion two-year old Citizen Bull, plus elite colts like Sovereignty and Cornucopian.

It is shaping up to be another thrilling contest, and we have provided our early Kentucky Derby predictions below. We will break down the Kentucky Derby favorites, highlight a few interesting underdogs, and discuss the best online racebooks for horseplayers this year.

The Road to the Derby

Some of the world’s finest three-year-olds will spend the spring campaign battling for a place in the Kentucky Derby 2025. The field will be limited to just 20 runners, so only the very best will earn a starting berth.

Horses can qualify by performing well in the Road to the Kentucky Derby, a series of key build-up races. They can earn 100 points by winning big races like the Louisiana Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes, whereas victory in smaller prep events is worth just 10 points.

Magnitude, the winner of the Risen Star Stakes, will miss out due to injury, so these horses currently occupy the top 20 places:

Position	Horse	Points	Earnings	Trainer
1	Tiztastic	119	$1,395,800	Steven M. Asmussen
2	Final Gambit	100	$446,400	Brad H. Cox
3	Chunk of Gold	75	$324,400	Ethan West
4	Coal Battle	70	$1,034,500	Lonnie Briley
5	Owen Almighty	65	$415,310	Brian A. Lynch
6	Citizen Bull	60	$1,376,000	Bob Baffert
7	Sovereignty	60	$364,800	William I. Mott
8	American Promise	55	$335,000	D. Wayne Lukas
9	Flood Zone	50	$165,000	Brad H. Cox
10	Flying Mohawk	50	$156,800	Whit Beckman
11	Journalism	47.5	$300,000	Michael W. McCarthy
12	Getaway Car	46	$578,000	Bob Baffert
13	Built	45	$180,000	Wayne M. Catalano
14	Chancer McPatrick	35	$550,000	Chad C. Brown
15	John Hancock	35	$160,000	Brad H. Cox
16	Maximum Promise	33	$96,150	Kenneth G. McPeek
17	Madaket Road	31	$244,000	Bob Baffert
18	Poster	31	$194,700	Eoin G. Harty
19	Burnham Square	30	$171,800	Ian R. Wilkes
20	Sandman	29	$307,995	Mark E. Casse

However, there is still a long way to go. These are the key results so far, plus the big races that loom large on the horizon.

Championship Series first leg events:

Race	Distance	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Risen Star	1 1/8 miles	Magnitude	Chunk Of Gold	Built	Vassimo	American Promise
Rebel Stakes	1 1/16 miles	Coal Battle	Madekat Road	Sandman	Publisher	Tiztastic
Gotham Stakes	1 mile	Flood Zone	Sand Devil	Garamond	My Mitole	McAfee
Fountain of Youth	1 1/16 miles	Sovereignty	River Thames	Neoequoes	Burnham Square	Gate to Wire
San Felipe	1 1/16 miles	Journalism	Barnes	Rodriguez	Mellencamp	Smooth Cruisein
Tampa Bay Derby	1 1/16 miles	Owen Almighty	Chancer McPatrick	Hill Road	Patch Adams	Brodeur
Virginia Derby	1 1/8 miles	American Promise	Render Judgment	Omaha Omaha	Getaway Car	Studlydoright

(1st=50 points; 2nd=25 points; 3rd=15 points; 4th=10 points; 5th=5 points).

Championship Series second leg events:

Race	Distance	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Louisiana Derby	1 3/16 miles	Tiztastic	Chuck Of Gold	Instant Replay	John Hancock	Built
Jeff Ruby	1 1/8 miles	Final Gambit	Flying Mohawk	Maximum Promise	Poster	Giocoso

(1st=100 points; 2nd=50 points; 3rd=25 points; 4th=15 points; 5th=10 points)

Upcoming second leg events:

Race	Distance	Grade	Track	Date
Florida Derby	1 1/8 miles	1	Gulfstream	March 29
Arkansas Derby	1 1/8 miles	1	Oaklawn Park	March 29
Blue Grass Stakes	1 1/8 miles	1	Keeneland	April 5
Santa Anita Derby	1 1/8 miles	1	Santa Anita	April 5
Wood Memorial	1 1/8 miles	2	Aqueduct	April 5
Lexington	1 1/8 miles	3	Keeneland	April 12

We will know which horses are in line to contest the Kentucky Derby once those races have concluded. However, online racebooks have already released their odds on The Run for the Roses, and you can unlock early value by making Kentucky Derby predictions now.

Kentucky Derby Favorites

These are the early favorites in the Kentucky Derby futures betting, with odds from BetOnline:

• Journalism (+700) | Michael McCarthy’s star colt emerged as a leading Kentucky Derby contender after clinching an impressive win in the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity in December. He then lived up to his billing by winning the G2 San Felipe at Santa Anita Park.
• Sovereignty (+750) | This highly-rated Godolphin colt is the favorite for the Florida Derby after impressing in his last two outings. He won the G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream, followed by the G3 Street Sense at Churchill Downs, so it will be interesting to see how he fares on his return to action in Florida.
• Citizen Bull (+800) | The 2024 American champion two-year-old won a couple of big Grade 1 races last year, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Sovereignty followed it up with a strong victory in the G3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, so he carries a great deal of hype into his three-year-old season.
• Cornucopian (+800) | This inexperienced three-year-old ran six furlongs in just 1:09.02 in his only race, at Oaklawn on February 23, and he also outclassed Barnes at Santa Anita. He’s a $1.1 million yearling purchase and a son of leading sire Into Mischief, which is enough to make him the morning line favorite for the upcoming Arkansas Derby.

Kentucky Derby Underdogs

Here are a few interesting underdogs that could spring a surprise in the Derby:

• Barnes is a +1600 outsider with BetOnline after finishing second to Journalism at Santa Anita. However, that was his only defeat so far, and he should continue to improve over the next five weeks.
• Tiztastic is priced at +2200, despite securing a place in the big race courtesy of an eye-catching win over 1 3/16 miles in the Louisiana Derby. His performance in the Rebel Stakes was underwhelming, but he could be dangerous if he maintains his upward curve.
• Final Gambit has been assigned futures odds of +2500 for the Derby after winning the G3 Jeff Ruby by 3 ½ lengths earlier this month. He defied morning line odds of 15-1 to secure that win, courtesy of a last-to-first rally.

Our Predictions for Kentucky Derby 2025

There is still a long way to go, but here are some early Kentucky Derby predictions:

The KD Will Be Here Before You Know It

We are now just weeks away from the big race. You’ll find Kentucky Derby odds on all the leading contenders at BetOnline, so you can get your fixed-odds bets in early. Pari-mutuel wagering will also be available on the day of the race, including the win, place, show, exacta, trifecta, and various other betting options.

Sign up with BetOnline now to claim up to $250 in free bets, with no strings attached. You can also claim a $25 risk-free bet on the Kentucky Derby, plus a daily 9% racebook rebate, so it’s a great option for anyone making Kentucky Derby predictions this year.