2024 Popular Vote Odds and Balance of Power Props
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The 2024 popular vote odds heavily favor the Democrats in the upcoming election. Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, is a -400 favorite to win the popular vote and a -120 favorite to win the election overall. One way to achieve better betting value on popular vote markets is to wager on prop bets instead.
This free political betting guide focuses on the latest election prop bets for the popular vote winner and the balance of power after the 2024 election. I will highlight the favorites in each market and discuss the current odds at the top political sportsbooks for these markets.
The election odds for these political props were provided by Bovada Sportsbook.
2024 Election Betting Odds
Check out the table for a quick overview of the relevant 2024 election betting odds that you will need to know for the prop wagers below.
| Election Outcome | Favorite | Underdog |
| Presidential Election winner | Kamala Harris (-120) | Donald Trump Sr. (+100) |
| Popular Vote Winner | Kamala Harris (-400) | Donald Trump Sr. (+275) |
| Republican Senate Seats | 52 (+230) | 49 or fewer (+400) |
| Senate Control | Republican (-350) | Democrats (+245) |
Vice President Kamala Harris is favored to win the election (-120) and win the popular vote (-400). However, Republicans are favored to control 52 Senate seats (+230), giving them control over the Senate (-350) after the election.
The GOP currently has 49 seats and only needs to net two seats to take control. There are 34 seats in the Senate up for election, including 23 currently held by Democrats or Independents.
Popular Vote and Election Winner Parlay Odds
- Democrats win the presidency and popular vote (-115)
- Republicans win the presidency, and Democrats win the popular vote (+200)
- Republicans win the presidency and popular vote (+275)
- Democrats win the presidency, and Republicans win the popular vote (+3000)
Democratic candidates have dominated the popular vote in recent decades. The Republican nominee to win the popular vote since 1992 was George W. Bush in 2004. So, it is not surprising the Democrats are favored to win the popular vote against this year.
Kamala Harris (-120) is also the favorite to win the election and is favored in many swing states odds. Harris winning the election and popular vote is listed as the -115 favorite in this election prop wager. Donald Trump has won the presidency without the popular vote before, and he is listed at +200 to win the election without the popular vote this November.
Democrats Win Presidency and Popular Vote (-115)
With the exception of John Kerry in 2004, every Democratic presidential candidate since 1992 has won the popular vote. Harris (-400) is a heavy favorite to continue that trend this November. The more pressing question is whether Harris will win the electoral college and become president.
The latest post-debate polling favors Harris over Trump, with the Vice President up by as many as six points in some polls. However, as we have seen in the past, Trump will likely outperform his polls on Election Day.
Republicans Win Presidency and Democrats Win Popular Vote (+200)
Speaking of Trump, he is the even-money underdog to win the 2024 election and is listed at +275 to win the popular vote. You can wager on Trump to win the presidency without winning the popular vote at +200 odds in this election prop bet.
This outcome would be a repeat of how Trump won the office in 2016. Trump lost the popular vote by over 2% but defeated Hillary Clinton 304-227 in the Electoral College.
I think this is the most likely outcome for a second Trump presidency. The former president has lost the popular vote twice and is unlikely to win it this year. However, if Trump wins, you could double your payout with this prop, as it pays out 2:1 odds instead of being even money.
Republicans Win Presidency and Popular Vote (+275)
The option with the third-best popular vote odds in this election prop is for Republicans to win the popular vote and the presidency. George W. Bush was the last GOP nominee to pull this off, but he was also running with the advantage of being the incumbent.
Bush improved his popular vote percentage from 47.87% in 2000 to 50.73% in 2004. Trump, on the other hand, was unable to repeat Bush’s performance, going from 46.09% in his 2016 win to just 46.8% in his 2020 loss.
It is challenging to imagine Trump gaining multiple percentage points in the popular vote this time around. The latest polling shows that Harris is more favorable with voters, making it even less likely that Trump outperforms her with voters.
Balance of Power Election Prop Parlay Odds
- Republicans win presidency, House, and Senate (+190)
- Democrats win presidency, House, and Senate (+225)
- Democrats win the presidency and House; Republicans win the Senate (+250)
- Republicans win the presidency and Senate; Democrats win the House (+500)
- Democrats win presidency; Republicans win the House and Senate (+1000)
- Democrats win the presidency and Senate; Republicans win the House (+2500)
Bovada also has 2024 election betting odds for the balance of power after the election. Currently, Democrats control the presidency and, thanks to what amounts to a tie in the Senate, they also control half of Congress. Republicans hold a slim majority in the House with 220 seats to Democrats 211, with four seats currently vacant.
Despite being underdogs in the presidential race, Republicans are favored to win control of the presidency and both houses of Congress in this election parlay. This is due primarily to their odds of winning control of the Senate. Only 11 of the GOP’s 49 seats are up for re-election this fall.
Democrats, on the other hand, are listed at +225 to win control of the presidency, House, and Senate. Harris is favored to hold up her end, but the Democrats will need net gains in both the House and the Senate for this wager to win.
Republicans Win Presidency, House, and Senate (+190)
Bovada has the GOP listed at -350 to win control of the Senate this November. Also, Republicans are listed at +230 to have exactly 52 Senate seats, a net increase of three. In the same betting market, the GOP is listed at +250 to have 51 seats, giving them a majority and control.
The odds for Republicans to have 49 or fewer seats are listed at +400. Odds are not yet available for control of the House, but Republicans would have to lose several seats not to maintain control.
Democrats Win Presidency, House, and Senate (+225)
The option with the second-best election odds in this parlay market is for the Democrats to win control of the presidency and both houses of Congress. Harris is the betting favorite to win the presidential election, but winning control of Congress will be an uphill battle for Democrats.
Democrats have only 211 and 47 seats in the House and Senate, respectively. Four independents in the Senate tend to vote with Democrats, creating a small majority. To gain full control of Congress for this bet, Democrats would need net gains of seven seats in the House and four in the Senate.
Democrats Win the Presidency and House; Republicans Win the Senate (+250)
A close third in this election parlay market is for Democrats to win the presidency and the House but for the GOP to take control of the Senate. Republicans must defend significantly fewer Senate seats, making it easier for them to gain control.
Every seat in the House is up for election, making it easier for one party to gain control in a given election. The Democrats held off the red wave in 2022 and could exceed expectations again this year.
2024 Election Prop Bet Predictions
Prop and parlay betting can be a fun way to get the most out of the 2024 election betting experience. Here are my predictions for the above balance of power and popular vote odds.
Democrats Win Presidency and Popular Vote (-115)
I do not doubt that Democrats will win the popular vote again this November, extending their streak to five consecutive presidential elections. Harris is currently the betting favorite to win the election, which is even more impressive since she only started her campaign in July. I think Harris will win both the popular vote and the Electoral College this November.
Democrats Win the Presidency and House; Republicans Win the Senate (+250)
If Harris wins, that eliminates the favorite in the balance of power parlay options. I think Democrats have a chance to win control of one of the houses but not both. Republicans are on offense in the Senate, and I think they can gain enough seats to take control in exchange for losing the House.
Whose Popular Vote Odds Will You Bet On?
Balance of power and popular vote odds are unique ways to wager on the upcoming 2024 election. You can put your political prediction skills to the test for a chance to win big rewards this November.
Check out the guide above to the latest election prop bets for the popular vote outcome and the balance of power after Election Day. Then, sign up at Bovada Sportsbook to bet on your favorite political markets. New members can claim up to $1,000 in bonus funds when they redeem the code BV1000.
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