2024 Olympics Basketball Odds and Expert Predictions
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The 16-time Olympic champion Team USA is the heavy favorite in this year’s Olympic basketball odds. Team USA is listed at -450 and is looking for its 20th medal in basketball in as many appearances. The globalization of the sport is catching up with Team USA, though, and the level of competition in international basketball has certainly increased.
This basketball betting guide will discuss the latest 2024 Olympic basketball odds for the top teams in this year’s tournament. I will provide an analysis of the top national teams and give my prediction for which country will take home the gold in men’s basketball this Olympics.
2024 Olympics Men’s Basketball Odds
August 8 Update
The Men’s Olympic basketball tournament is building toward its exciting medal games. Only four teams remain: the USA, France, Germany, and Serbia. The US team has been dominant and is, unsurprisingly, still the heavy favorite to win the gold.
Here are the latest 2024 Olympic basketball odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
| Country | Olympic Gold Odds | Previous Odds |
| USA | -1250 | -450 |
| Germany | +900 | +2500 |
| Serbia | +1500 | +1000 |
| France | +1800 | +800 |
USA (-1250)
The US team attracted a lot of negative attention after struggling in the warm-up games. Since the group stage started, though, the US has been dominant. They started with a 110-84 win over Serbia and have not looked back.
It has not been a perfect Olympics for the US Men’s team, though, and head coach Steve Kerr has dealt with plenty of questions about the team’s starting lineup. The team’s issues have mostly been off the court, though, and assuming the players can block out the noise, the US appears destined for another gold medal. They will take on Serbia again, this time in the Semi-Finals.
Germany
Speaking of Germany, they are listed at ### to win the gold medal this year. They are favored to beat France in their Semi-Final matchup. So far this Olympics, the German team is undefeated, sweeping through the group stage with wins over Japan, Brazil, and France.
Germany won the gold in last year’s FIBA World Cup, but they were tied for fifth to win gold in the pre-tournament odds. France is a tough Semi-Final matchup, but they have beaten them before. Their toughest matchup is the US in the gold medal game.
If Serbia can somehow dispatch the US in the Semi-Finals, then Germany is the best bet to walk away with the gold medal. The more likely scenario, though, is that Germany loses to the US and leaves the Olympics with a silver medal.
Serbia (+1500)
Serbia has the second-longest odds to win gold, due in large part to its unfortunate draw of being in the same group as the USA. They lost to the US in the first game of the group stage but quickly put the loss behind them and made the Semi-Finals.
They have a second chance to try and beat the US, as they will have to play them again in the Semi-Finals. Beating the US would arguably be bigger than winning the gold. Even if Serbia can get past the USA, though, they would likely be underdogs against Germany in a potential gold medal game matchup.
France (+1800)
The French team has put on a show in front of their home crowd. Victor Wembanyama and company have made it all the way to the Semi-Finals after upsetting Canada 82-73 in the Quarter Finals. They also defeated Japan and Brazil in the group stage.
Despite their success so far, the French team has the longest odds of any remaining team at +1800. To advance to the gold medal game, the French team will need to defeat Germany in the Semi-Final. When these teams met in the group stage, Germany won 85-71, and Wembanyama led the French team in scoring with just 14 points.
He is young, so Wembanyama’s low production is not too surprising. However, the players around Wembanyama will need to step up if France wants to compete for a gold medal. Only two other players on the French team, Isaia Cordinier and Evan Fournier, scored in double digits during their loss to Germany the first time around.
Original:
The 2020 Olympic Games were delayed a year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The delay did little to derail Team USA, which won yet another gold medal in basketball. Oddsmakers have the US heavily favored to win the gold again this year.
See the table below to see the latest 2024 basketball Olympics odds from BetOnline Sportsbook.
| Country | 2024 Olympic Basketball Odds | 2020 Olympics Finish |
| USA | -450 | 1st (Gold) |
| Canada | +800 | N/A |
| France | +800 | 2nd (Silver) |
| Serbia | +1000 | N/A |
| Germany | +2500 | 8th |
| Spain | +2500 | 6th |
| Australia | +3300 | 3rd (Bronze) |
| Greece | +4000 | N/A |
| Slovenia | +5000 | 4th |
| Lithuania | +6600 | N/A |
| Latvia | +15000 | N/A |
| Italy | +25000 | 5th |
Team USA Odds and Analysis
- Odds to win gold: -450
- Total appearances: 19
- Total Olympic medals: 16 gold, 1 silver, 2 bronze
The US Men’s National Basketball Team has won eight of the last 10 gold medals at the Olympics. It is rare to see the men’s team lose a game in the Olympics, let alone fall out of the first palace. The only team that has been more dominant is the Women’s team, which has won gold medals at every Olympics except for one since 1984.
This year, the US Men’s team will have added firepower. Future hall of famer and four-time NBA champion Steph Curry will make his Team USA Olympic debut. Anthony Edwards and Joel Embiid will also make their Olympic debuts for the US this year.
The rest of Team USA is full of stars who have tons of Olympic experience, including:
- LeBron James – 2 gold medals
- Kevin Durant – 3 gold medals
- Draymond Green – 2 gold medals
- Devin Booker – 1 gold medal
- Jayson Tatum – 1 gold medal
Top-rates sportsbooks have Team USA listed as the -450 favorite to win the gold again this year. The competition will be tougher than usual, but it is challenging to see anyone beating the US if the players are locked in.
Team Canada Odds and Analysis
- Odds to win gold: +800
- Total appearances: 9
- Total Olympic medals: 1 silver
Two teams are tied at +800 for the second-best basketball Olympics odds to win the gold at the 2024 Paris Olympics. The first is Team Canada, which features 10 current NBA players. This is Team Canada’s first appearance in the Olympics since 2000.
Some of the NBA-level star power competing for Team Canada this year includes:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC)
- Dillon Brooks (HOU)
- Luguentz “Lu” Dort (OKC)
- R.J. Barrett (TOR)
- Andrew Nembhard (IND)
Team Canada is loaded with young talent but lacks Olympic experience. SGA, the team’s best player, was just two years old the last time Canada’s men’s team made the Olympics. They should be able to compete for a medal, but inexperience could limit how far Team Canada can go this summer.
Team France Odds and Analysis
- Odds to win gold: +800
- Total appearances: 10
- Total Olympic medals: 3 silver
The other team listed at +800 odds to win the gold in men’s basketball is Team France. Although they have made 10 appearances in the Olympics, they have never won the gold. France has won three silvers, though, including their runner-up finish in the Tokyo Olympics.
France’s chances of claiming the gold will depend on the emergence of Victor Wembanyama. The 7’4 Center won Rookie of the Year this season in the NBA and could make France a real threat to win the gold this year. Rudy Gobert, Nicolas Batum, and other NBA veterans will join Wemby on the host country’s team this year as France attempts to win its first gold in basketball.
The French team won silver at the 2020 Olympics and should be better with Wemby this year. The top two picks in this year’s NBA Draft, Zaccharie Risacher and Alex Starr, are also from France. Risacher and Starr are not competing this year, but could join the team in 20208, setting up France for Olympic success for the foreseeable future.
Team Serbia Odds and Analysis
- Odds to win gold: +1000
- Total appearances: 5
- Total Olympic medals: 2 silver
Up next is Serbia, which is listed at +1000 odds to win the gold this year in Paris. Serbia’s Men’s Basketball Team has made five appearances in the Olympics but only has a pair of silver medals to show for it.
The Serbian team claimed silver at the 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup. They lost 83-77 to Germany in the final. Serbia played well in the FIBA tournament, beating Canada and Lithuania in the semi and quarter-finals, respectively.
Serbia lacks the big names of other top national teams, but they should not be counted out. Only three players on the team currently play in the NBA, but the Serbian team has shown it can win in international play.
Team Germany Odds and Analysis
- Odds to win gold: +2500
- Total appearances: 6
- Total Olympic medals: 0
Germany’s Men’s Basketball Team has competed in the Olympics six times but has never won a medal. The German team did win gold at the FIBA World Cup last year and has a great chance to win a medal this summer. It will be tougher to win in Paris, especially against the US, but the German team could be set up for its best appearance in the Olympics.
Even making it to the final four would be a big step for Germany. In its six Olympic appearances so far, Germany has never made it past the quarter-finals. In 2021, Germany lost 94-70 to Slovenia, finishing eighth overall.
Germany is ranked third in the FIBA rankings, which is impressive given its lack of NBA players. The team is full of young players, too, with only two players, Max DiLeo and Jonas Wohlfarth-Bottermann, age 30 or over.
Team Spain Odds and Analysis
- Odds to win gold: +2500
- Total appearances: 14
- Total Olympic medals: 2 silver, 1 bronze
Spain is the other team listed at 25-1 to win gold in men’s basketball at the 2024 Olympics. In 14 Olympic appearances, the Spanish team has claimed three silver medals and one bronze. Its most recent medal came at the 2016 Olympics when Spain beat Australia in the bronze medal game.
The US defeated Spain in the quarterfinals at the 2020 Olympics, despite Ricky Rubio leading the game in scoring with 38 points. Rubio led all players in the Olympics in scoring that year, but he will not be on the team this time around.
With Rubio out of the lineup, Spain will need its other veterans to step up to lead the team. Spain has six players aged 30 or older, so it should have plenty of veteran experience to lean on. Team Spain could be at a talent disadvantage, though, as only 22-year-old Usman Garuba currently plays in the NBA as a member of the Golden State Warriors’ G League squad.
2024 Olympic Basketball Picks
The rest of the world has slowly but surely started to catch up to the US in men’s basketball. Many of the top players in the world are international players, but will anyone be able to dethrone the US at the Olympics this summer?
Secure betting sites list the USA as the -450 favorite to win its fifth consecutive Olympic gold in men’s basketball. Given the depth of talent on the US roster, it is challenging to pick against them. I believe the US will continue its reign for now and claim gold again in Paris.
The United States’s time at the top of the basketball world could be coming to an end soon, though. Canada and France both have talented rosters and are worthy of being tied for the second-best odds. Of the two, I believe Canada has the best odds to upset the US this year, but I would take France in 2028 and beyond.
Best Bet:
- United States -450
Which Country’s 2024 Olympics Men’s Basketball Odds Are You Betting On?
Dozens of NBA players are headed to Paris for the 2024 Olympics. Most of those players will be playing for Team USA, which is a big reason why the US is a heavy favorite in this year’s Olympic basketball odds.
Check out the guide above to see the current 2024 Olympic basketball odds for the men’s bracket. I break down the top teams and give my Olympic predictions. Then, sign up at BetOnline Sportsbook to bet on the 2024 Paris Olympics online.
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