2024 MLB Cy Young Odds and Expert Predictions
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With the All-Star Game in the rearview mirror, we’re well into the second half of the 2024 MLB season and several pitchers have separated themselves from the pack in the Cy Young race.
This year’s race is particularly interesting as we’ve got a mix of fresh faces such as Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal duking it out against veterans like Chris Sale, Zack Wheeler, and Corbin Burnes.
Keep reading for my breakdown of the 2024 MLB Cy Young odds.
2024 AL Cy Young Odds
The 2024 AL Cy Young is already shaping up as a two-horse race with Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal leading the way and Baltimore Orioles starter Corbin Burnes seeking his second career ward.
There could be a wrinkle in the script, though, as Skubal is reportedly on the trading block for the struggling Tigers.
Here are the updated Cy Young odds on the American League side, courtesy of BetUS.
| 2024 AMERICAN LEAGUE CY YOUNG ODDS | |
| PITCHER | ODDS |
| Tarik Skubal | -130 |
| Corbin Burnes | +280 |
| Seth Lugo | +1200 |
| Logan Gilbert | +1200 |
| Tanner Houck | +2000 |
| Garret Crochet | +2500 |
Tarik Skubal (-130)
After making just 15 starts in 2023 after undergoing elbow surgery, Tarik Skubal has reached a new level this season. The Tigers starter is on pace for a career year with a 2.41 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP while going 10-3 through 19 starts.
Skubal leads all AL starters in ERA while ranking second in WHIP. According to Fan Graphs, the Tigers ace also owns a clear lead in FIP (Field Independent Pitching) Adjusted Cy Young Points, which can be a good predictor for voting.
However, things could get interesting if Skubal is traded to the NL. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in the mix for Skubal, which would obviously tank his chances of winning the AL Cy Young.
Corbin Burnes (+280)
Corbin Burnes is a familiar name in the Cy Young race, though this will be the first time that the 29-year-old has a chance at the AL Cy Young after spending his first six seasons with the Brewers and claiming the NL Cy Young award in 2021.
The right-hander owns a 2.43 ERA along with a 1.04 WHIP and a 9-4 record over 19 starts while helping his club to a 58-38 record (.604 W%) at the All-Star break, good for second in the AL behind only the Cleveland Guardians. Burnes’ chances should only get better if he can help the Orioles finish the season atop the AL standings.
Seth Lugo (+1200)
Outside of the top two candidates, Kansas City Royals reliever-turned-starter Seth Lugo has the third-best odds of taking home the 2024 AL Cy Young as he carries an impressive 2.48 ERA and an 11-4 record, tied for the most wins in the AL this season.
Lugo leads the AL in Cy Young Points and sits third in FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (67.9) behind Skubal (75.9) and Tanner Houck (68.4) so he could emerge as a late favorite with a little bit of luck.
AL Cy Young Pick
It’s Skubal’s race to lose according to the 2024 Cy Young odds but there’s still plenty of baseball to play and it’s not guaranteed that he’ll finish the season in the AL. That said, I’m a big fan of Burnes at +280.
Skubal has never pitched 150 innings in a season while Burnes has thrown 167+ innings in each of the past three campaigns. That endurance and experience could be the difference down the stretch as Burnes will be more likely to maintain his level of play through the second half.
The Orioles may finish the season atop the AL East, which could boost Burnes’ Cy Young case. Skubal’s Tigers, meanwhile, aren’t likely to be anywhere near the postseason this October. As a result, Burnes looks like the best value on the AL side at his current +280 Cy Young odds.
Pick: Corbin Burnes (+280)
2024 NL Cy Young Odds
Things are a little less clear in the NL race with Chris Sale, Zack Wheeler and Paul Skenes all having legitimate chances at claiming this year’s NL Cy Young. Sale, who has finished top three in Cy Young voting twice, could finally take home his first award as the 35-year-old is having his best season since 2018.
Let’s look at the BetUS NL Cy Young odds:
| 2024 NATIONAL LEAGUE CY YOUNG ODDS | |
| PITCHER | ODDS |
| Chris Sale | +125 |
| Zack Wheeler | +150 |
| Paul Skenes | +450 |
| Logan Webb | +2500 |
| Tyler Glasnow | +2500 |
| Ranger Suarez | +2500 |
Chris Sale (+125)
Chris Sale has been in plenty of Cy Young races during his 14-season career, most notably finishing second in voting in 2017 and third in 2014. The 35-year-old could be poised to finally earn his first award as he’s currently the favorite based on 2024 NL Cy Young odds.
The Atlanta Braves ace owns a 13-3 record through 18 appearances to lead all pitchers in the majors in wins, while his 2.70 ERA and 0.95 WHIP both rank second in the NL. Sale is also head and shoulders above the competition according to Fan Graphs projections as he leads all NL pitchers in Cy Young Points (49) and FIP Cy Young Points (76.7).
Zack Wheeler (+150)
Zack Wheeler isn’t too far behind Sale in the NL Cy Young race, coming in at nearly identical odds following the All-Star break. Wheeler, who is 10-4 through 19 starts, carries a 2.70 ERA – identical to Sale’s – to go with a 0.99 WHIP (3rd) while holding his opponents to a stingy .192 batting average (2nd).
The Philadelphia Phillies pitcher sits just behind Sale with 45.7 Cy Young Points and will look to snag his first award after coming second to Burnes in the 2021 NL Cy Young race.
Paul Skenes (+450)
Rookie sensation Paul Skenes has had a storybook start to his first season in the majors and currently holds the third-best odds in the NL Cy Young race despite only debuting for the Pittsburgh Pirates in mid-May. The 22-year-old even started for the NL at the All-Star game, becoming the first player in MLB history to be named an All-Star the season after being drafted.
Skenes holds a perfect 6-0 record through 11 starts to go with a 1.90 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. However, it’s worth noting that Skenes does not currently qualify for the official leaderboard as he’s thrown just 66 innings this season.
NL Cy Young Pick
There’s no denying that Skenes would be a great story as the NL Cy Young winner, but his lack of innings will make him a longshot versus veterans Sale and Wheeler. As it stands, Sale would be my pick as the Braves ace looks to be getting even better as the season goes on, posting a 2.13 ERA over his last seven starts.
If you really want to swing for the fences, Sale’s teammate Reynaldo Lopez leads the NL with a minuscule 1.88 ERA and currently sits at +3000 according to NL Cy Young odds.
Pick: Chris Sale (+125)
Value Pick: Reynaldo Lopez (+3000)
Cy Young Odds Summary
The AL Cy Young race is shaping up as a two-man duel between Tarik Skubal of the Tigers and Corbin Burnes of the Orioles, who could earn the second Cy Young award of his career. Skubal is the favorite according to AL Cy Young odds for now, but Burnes could pull ahead if he helps Baltimore climb atop the AL standings.
The NL Cy Young race is led by Chris Sale of the Braves, Zack Wheeler of the Phillies and Paul Skenes of the Pirates. Skenes has earned the spotlight for his sensational rookie season, though Sale and Wheeler hold the betting edge due to their heavier workloads.
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