2024 Election Odds: Which Party Will Get More Electoral College Votes?
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The latest 2024 election odds still favor Donald Trump. The former President has been favored over President Biden, the incumbent, for nearly a year.
You can bet on politics online and wager on several prop bets for the upcoming election. For example, you can wager on the total number of votes each party will get in the Electoral College.
Keep reading to see the latest presidential election odds concerning the Electoral College. I will break down the odds for both Republicans and Democrats. Also, I will give you my updated predictions for the 2024 election.
2024 Electoral College Odds
President Joe Biden and Donald Trump are set for a rematch this November in the 2024 presidential election. They squared off in 2020, and after pandemic-related delays in counting the votes, Biden won.
- Biden: 306 Electoral College votes in 2020
- Trump: 232 Electoral College votes in 2020
Securing key battleground states, such as Pennsylvania and Georgia, helped to put Biden over the top. However, those states could swing the other this November. Trump (-200) is favored over Biden (+120) in the latest election odds for 2024.
The winner will be the person to secure at least 270 Electoral College votes. Since Trump’s election odds are shorter than Biden’s, it should be no surprise that the GOP is favored to win more votes.
Electoral College vs. Popular Vote
In most US elections, the winner is determined by the popular vote. Simply put, whichever candidate gets the most votes will win. However, the popular vote is not used for the presidential election.
Instead, the election winner is the person who gets the most Electoral College votes. Each state has a set amount of electoral votes that a candidate can win
A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the election. As a result, the winner of the election does not necessarily need to win the popular vote to become President.
Why Does the US Use the Electoral College?
The Founding Fathers had many issues to sort out in the late 1780s when they attempted to create the first US government. One of the many compromises of the Philadelphia convention was the Electoral College.
Some Founders wanted a direct democracy to elect the President, while others wanted Congress to decide. As a compromise, it was decided that voters would decide on a candidate, but it would be up to state electors to make the final decision.
Pros and Cons of the Electoral College
The Electoral College has many flaws, but it is still the system in place today because it also has some benefits. At the time it was created, this system was a convenient way to work around the issue of slavery.
It also helped limit the impact that uneducated voters could have on the election outcome. After all, it was much more challenging to disperse information about candidates in the 18th century than it is today.
The electoral college was actually the founders’ third choice according to Professor Steven Levitsky pic.twitter.com/vNCSL9WCMF
— The Daily Show (@TheDailyShow) March 16, 2024
In theory, the Electoral College prevents an extremist candidate from winning with a relatively low number of votes. For instance, if multiple candidates receive large portions of the popular votes, someone could win with less than 50% of the vote. However, our modern system is essentially a two-party system, so this concern advantage is purely hypothetical.
In many other aspects, though, the Electoral College is often viewed as an outdated system. As the US continues to grow in population, the issues with the Electoral College only become more apparent.
One major issue with the current system is it encourages voter suppression. Another significant issue is that people in larger states effectively have less voting power. For instance, Wyoming has a population just north of 500,000 but accounts for three electoral votes.
California, on the other hand, has nearly 40 million people but just 54 votes. This means that Cali has nearly 80 times the population of Wyoming but just 18 times as many votes.
How Often Does the Electoral College Winner Win the Popular Vote?
Five presidents have been elected in the US without winning the popular vote. John Quincy Adams (1824), Rutherford B. Hayes (1876), and Benjamin Harrison (1888) all won their respective elections in the 19th century without receiving the popular vote.
It would take 112 years, and 28 elections, for the next President to be elected without winning the popular vote. George W. Bush won the 2000 election over Al Gore after a heavily disputed election result in Florida. Ultimately, it was determined that Bush won the Sunshine State, giving him 271 electoral votes to Gore’s 266.
His opponent, Hillary Clinton, earned more than 2.8 million more votes but had just 227 electoral votes.
Clinton’s loss was by far the biggest difference in total voters for a candidate that won the popular vote but lost the election. The next closest is Gore in 2000, who had over half a million more votes than Bush. Four of the five President-elects to lose the popular vote have been Republican, with the fifth, John Quincy Adams, being a Democratic-Republican.
Who Will Win the Popular Vote in 2024?
The popular vote is not used to determine the President, but it is still tracked in elections. A major reason for this is that the popular vote can be an indicator of what voters in the US really want.
Even though it is not the determining factor, you can still bet on the popular vote winner. BetUS has the following odds on the winner of the popular vote in 2024.
- Democratic (-300)
- Republican (+200)
- Candidates from any other party (+2000)
Biden’s election odds are second to Trump’s, but he will still likely win the popular vote. Democratic candidates have won the popular vote in seven of the last eight elections. The only Republican to win the popular vote since 1992 was George W. Bush in 2004.
The odds of any other party winning the popular vote are set at +2000. RFK Jr. is the most likely candidate, but he is also considering Aaron Rodgers as his VP. For this betting market, I would stick with the Democrats.
Which Party Will Get More Electoral College Votes?
Republicans, specifically Donald Trump, are favored to win the 2024 election. While the GOP may come out on top, I think the election will be closer than expected.
Democrat Electoral Vote Odds
- Over 252.5 votes (-120)
- Under 252.5 votes (-120)
Democrats have received at least 251 electoral votes in seven of the last eight elections. They would need to get slightly more than that hit the over in this totals betting market.
It’s not too late for Joe Biden or Donald Trump to drop out. But it’s nearly impossible thanks to LBJ. https://t.co/5Gqve1vXd3
— USA TODAY (@USATODAY) March 16, 2024
Assuming Biden does not step down, he will be the Democrat candidate on the ticket this November. In 2020, Biden received 306 electoral votes. He was Barack Obama’s running mate in 2008 and 2012, and the pair earned 365 and 332 votes, respectively, in those elections.
I believe Biden’s success in the Electoral College will continue. He may not pass 300 total votes again, but I would take the over on this betting total.
Republican Electoral Vote Odds
- Over 286.5 votes (-105)
- Under 286.5 votes (-135)
There are only 538 electoral votes up for grabs in the 2024 election. If the Democrats win more than 252.5, Republicans will have to win less than 286.5. But that is not the only reason to take the under in this totals betting market.
Ex-VP Mike Pence said he’s not going to endorse Donald Trump this year and pointed out “profound differences” between the two, including his resistance against Trump’s repeated demands to reject the Electoral College results after the 2020 campaign. https://t.co/zlvTc803YD
— CBS Philadelphia (@CBSPhiladelphia) March 16, 2024
Trump won 304 electoral votes in the 2016 election. He is the only GOP candidate to win over 286.5 votes since George H.W. Bush in 1988. George W. Bush only won 271 and 286 votes in 2000 and 2004, respectively.
Even though Trump is the favorite, I do not think he will win a landslide. So, I would take the under on this totals betting market.
Which 2024 Election Odds Will You Bet On?
Winning the Electoral College is the key to the White House every four years. The latest election odds for 2024 have the GOP listed over/under 286.5 electoral votes. Democrats, on the other hand, are listed at over/under 252.5 electoral votes.
Check out the list above to learn more about the history of the Electoral College and how it will determine the outcome of this year’s election. I also break down the latest 2024 election odds and give you my predictions. You can find even more exciting political betting markets at BetUS Sportsbook.
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