2024 Election Odds: Could Biden Drop Out?
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Will Joe Biden Drop out of the 2024 presidential race? Biden is already the oldest sitting President in US history. If he does win the election, then he will be 86 years old by the time his second term ends.
Sportsbooks that let you bet on the election this November have Biden favored to win the Democratic nomination. However, Biden is not nearly as big of a favorite as Trump is to win the GOP nomination. Biden’s age, low approval rating, and several other factors have sparked rumors that he could step down before November.
Keep reading to learn more about the situations that could lead to Biden dropping out. I will break down the most likely scenarios and tell you which candidates have the best odds to replace Biden in the 2024 election.
Could Biden Drop Out?
As of now, Joe Biden is in line for another presidential run. The current President is 81 years old, but he declared last year that he is running in the 2024 election. His age, mental status, and low approval rating are all reasons that some people believe Biden will drop out of the race, though.
Is Biden Too Old to Run for President?
There is no official age limit on how old a person can be and still run for President. As long as you are at least 35 years old, you have met the age requirements for the office. Biden turned 35 in 1977, so he has met the requirement for a long time.
There is a growing concern that Biden could be too old for another four-year term, though. He is just three-and-a-half years older than Trump, but Biden lacks the same energy as his predecessor.
Biden also physically looks older than Trump, which will only become more evident if the two square off in debates later this year. Many political pundits, especially those on the right, are quick to blame Biden’s age whenever the President makes a mistake.
Can Biden Pass a Dementia Screening?
Concerns about Biden’s age have only increased since he won the 2020 election. One of the recent pushes by political figures on the right is for the President to take a cognitive exam as part of his yearly physical. Given his age, it would not be out of the question for Biden to take a dementia screening.
The lawmakers sent the letter following special counsel Robert K. Hur’s report on Mr. Biden’s retention of classified documents. https://t.co/sb2NNu9wmd
— The Washington Times (@WashTimes) February 22, 2024
BetUS Sportsbook has Biden listed at -300 to not pass a dementia test. Biden is available at +200 to pass the 30-question dementia screening. Biden would need to score at least 24 points to pass the test in question.
Concerns about Biden’s mental competency only grew after a recent report by special counsel Robert K. Hur. According to Hur, Biden was unable to recall important information during meetings. House Republicans have used Hur’s report as evidence that Biden needs to take a cognitive test during his yearly physical.
Will Biden’s Approval Rating Improve?
Several other factors have voters concerned about Biden running in the upcoming election. Issues such as Biden’s connections with Israel, the Hunter Biden investigation, and the lack of progress on Biden’s campaign promises have all hurt his approval rating.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Biden’s approval rating is currently around 39.8%. His approval rating was over 53% when he took office in January 2021.
As the incumbent, Biden is the clear choice for the Democratic nomination. However, if his approval rating continues to go down, it may be better for Biden to step aside for a more favorable candidate.
Will Kamala Harris Run for President if Biden Drops Out?
If Biden drops out, then the Democrats will not have a lot of time to find a replacement. Kamala Harris, the current Vice President, would be an obvious choice. She is among the top contenders after Biden to win the Democratic nomination.
Can Kamala Harris Win the Democratic Nomination?
Biden is the favorite to win the Democratic nomination at -300 odds. Harris is listed at +700 in the same betting market. She is tied for the third-best odds to win the nomination.
Harris has not been in the public eye much since the 2020 election. Part of the reason for this is her role in breaking ties in the Senate. The near 50-50 party split in the Senate during the first two years of Biden’s term meant that Harris had to spend plenty of time on Capitol Hill.
In 2020, Harris was an obvious pick to help Democrats secure votes from minority and female voters. She has not maintained her popularity among voters, though. Harris would not have a lot of time to rebuild voter support, though, if Biden ends up dropping out in the next few months.
Would Harris Beat Trump in a General Election?
Whoever wins the Democratic nomination will likely be facing Donald Trump. Sports betting sites have the former President listed at -5000 to win the Republican nomination.
If Harris does win the Democratic nomination, then she would have to beat Trump to keep the Dems in power. However, she is only listed at +1600 to win the 2024 election. At -150 odds, Trump is currently the favorite in the latest 2024 election odds.
Democrats are listed at -400 to win the popular vote, which they have done in four straight elections. In theory, that should give Harris an advantage if she does win the Democratic nomination. Her 2024 election odds would also be shortened significantly if Biden dropped out.
Other Democratic Candidates
Kamala Harris is not the only candidate that could be on the ticket if Biden drops out. Check out the table below to see the five other candidates with the best odds to win the Democratic nomination and their 2024 election odds.
| Candidate | Betway Odds | Odds to Win the 2024 Election |
|---|---|---|
| Michelle Obama | +400 | +600 |
| Gavin Newsom | +700 | +1000 |
| Elizabeth Warren | +3000 | +8000 |
| Hillary Clinton | +4000 | +10000 |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +4000 | +8000 |
Michelle Obama (+400)
Michelle Obama has the second-best odds of any potential candidate to win the Democratic nomination. The former first lady is listed at +400 to win the nomination. Michelle also has relatively short odds to win the 2024 election at +600.
Biden is listed at +200 to win the election, which is not far ahead of Michelle. Michelle is a recognizable figure and popular with voters. So, she would not have to make up as much ground as other candidates if she had to replace Biden on short notice.
Gavin Newsom (+700)
Another top candidate to replace Biden is California Governor Gavin Newsom. He is tied with Harris at +700 odds to win the Democratic nomination. Newsom has better odds to win the 2024 election than Harris at +1000, compared to +1600 for the current VP.
I joined @tracegallagher on @foxnewsnight to discuss why CA’s Prop 1, a multi billion dollar “homeless/mental health” bond measure, is a scam. It’s an overpriced housing program that diverts $ from mental health. @GavinNewsom is the last person on EARTH I’d trust with even more $ pic.twitter.com/gSVQ78LVJ6
— Houman David Hemmati, MD, PhD (@houmanhemmati) February 16, 2024
Another feather in Newsom’s cap is the fact that he is recognizable. Newsom has already debated popular Republican politicians on public stages. However, some of his struggles as governor, such as the homelessness problem in California, could cost Newsom support.
Elizabeth Warren (+3000)
The odds after Newsom fade quickly. Elizabeth Warren, who is listed at +3000, has the next best odds to win the Dem’s nomination. Warren is listed at +8000 to win the presidency in the latest 2024 election odds.
Elizabeth Warren has served in the Senate for over a decade. She also ran for President in 2020 but lost the nomination to Biden. Warren was a popular candidate in early polls and was also considered as Biden’s running mate in 2020.
Hillary Clinton (+4000)
Another former candidate who could replace Biden is Hillary Clinton. The former first lady is listed at +4000 to win the nomination. She is a long shot at +10000 to win the 2024 election, though.
Clinton has won the nomination before but lost the 2016 election to Trump in a massive upset. Given her previous defeat at the hands of Trump, it is challenging to imagine Clinton getting another shot at the presidency.
Gretchen Whitmer (+4000)
Rounding out the list of top candidates who could replace Biden is Gretchen Whitmer. She is currently the Governor of Michigan and was a candidate to be Biden’s VP in 2020.
I joined @VP to talk about the fight for abortion across our nation. Reproductive freedom is under attack, but here in Michigan, we’ve taken bold steps to expand this fundamental right. We must keep coming together and sharing our stories. That’s how we defend our freedoms. pic.twitter.com/ZuhNzbinvd
— Governor Gretchen Whitmer (@GovWhitmer) February 22, 2024
At just 52 years old, Whitmer is relatively young compared to most other potential nominees. Her experience as Governor and as a state congresswoman makes her an ideal candidate, though.
Will Biden Drop out of the 2024 Election?
President Joe Biden has the second-best odds to win the presidential election this November. A variety of factors, including his age, could make Biden drop out of the election, though.
Biden is the Dems’ best chance to win the 2024 election, but there is no shortage of candidates ready to take his place. Check out the list above to see who could replace Biden on the Democratic ticket this November. Then, head over to BetUS Sportsbook to bet on the latest 2024 election odds.
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