UFC 309: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic Odds and Breakdown
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The reigning UFC Heavyweight champion is the betting favorite in the latest Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic odds. Jones has just one career fight at Heavyweight in the UFC, but he is a heavy favorite against Miocic, arguably the best Heavyweight in UFC history.
This match between Jones and Miocic is years in the making, and the top UFC betting sites are full of exciting betting markets for this event. This guide will highlight the best UFC 309 odds for the title fight between Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic. I will break down the latest odds and give my predictions for Jones vs. Miocic.
Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic Odds
- Jon Jones (-650)
- Stipe Miocic (+425)
BetUS Sportsbook has dozens of props for the UFC 309 card. Before digging into the best props, let’s look at the odds for the main event.
Jon Jones, the current Heavyweight champion, is the -650 favorite against Stipe Miocic (+425) in this fight. Jones has not fought since winning the belt at UFC 285 in March 2023. Stipe has also had a long layoff, and this will be his first fight since his knockout loss to Francis Ngannou at UFC 260 in March 2021.
Jones could fight Ngannou himself if he wins this fight, but that is more challenging now that the latter is in the PFL.
Despite not fighting in over three years, it is challenging to count Stipe out of this fight. He has more experience at Heavyweight and is the most successful Heavyweight champion in UFC history. Miocic has also finished his opponents in 15 of his 20 career wins.
Jones is five years younger and has a 4.5-inch reach advantage of Miocic. He has also never loss outside of one disqualification. I think Jones will win this fight and move to 2-0 in the Heavyweight division.
Method of Victory Props
- Jon Jones by KO, TKO, or DQ (+130)
- Jon Jones by submission (+200)
- Jon Jones by decision (+400)
- Stipe Miocic by KO. TKO, or DQ (+600)
- Stipe Miocic by decision (+900)
- Stipe Miocic by submission (+3000)
- Draw (+6600)
One of the many prop betting options for Jones vs. Miocic is this market for the method of victory. Secure sportsbooks have a Jones win by KO, TKO, or DQ in this title fight. Jones has earned 10 of his 27 career wins by knockout.
The second-most likely option is for Jones to win via submission (+200). Jones has seven submission wins in his career. The most likely outcome for a Stipe win is for the former champion to win via KO, TKO, or DQ (+600).
Neither fighter has been submitted, but Stipe has been knocked out three times in his career. Miocic is 2-2 in his last four fights, and all of his losses during that stretch have come via knockout. He has had over three years off, though, and I think Stipe will avoid the knockout, but lose via decision.
- Prediction: Jon Jones Wins by decision +400
Round Betting
You can also wager on Jones or Miocic to win this Heavyweight showdown in a specific round. Here are the latest round betting options for Jone Jones vs. Stipe Miocic at BetUS.
| Round | Jon Jones Win | Stipe Miocic Wins |
| Round 1 | +300 | +1600 |
| Round 2 | +400 | +2000 |
| Round 3 | +500 | +2500 |
| Round 4 | +700 | +3000 |
| Round 5 | +950 | +3500 |
| Decision (Points) | +400 | +900 |
Jones is favored to end this fight early. For what it is worth. All three of Stipe’s knockout losses have happened in the first two rounds. However, as I stated above, I believe Jones will win via decision on Saturday.
Method and Round Combination Bets
You can also combine the two props above into one wager. BetUS offers the following method and round combination odds for Jon Jones vs. Miocic.
| Round | Jones via KO/TKO/DQ | Jones via Submission | Miocic via KO/TKO/DQ | Miocic via Submission |
| Round 1 | +450 | +800 | +1650 | +6000 |
| Round 2 | +700 | +1200 | +2100 | +6500 |
| Round 3 | +750 | +1400 | +2600 | +7000 |
| Round 4 | +1100 | +1800 | +3100 | +7500 |
| Round 5 | +1400 | +2500 | +3600 | +8000 |
BetUS lists Jones at +450 to win via knockout in the first round. The next most likely options are for Jones to knockout Stipe in the second (+700) and third rounds (+750). Jones is also listed at +800 to win by first round submission, the same way he won the title at UFC 285.
Miocic’s best odds of winning, according to this UFC prop, is to stop Jones via knockout in the first round. A first round KO win by Stipe is listed at +1650, the ninth-best odds of any outcome in this market.
Round Betting Either Winner
Rather than combining two bets, you can also simplify wagers by betting on the outcome regardless of the winner. For instance, BetUS offers the following odds for the winner round, regardless of whether Stipe or Jones earns the victory.
- Round 1 (+180)
- Round 2 (+300)
- Round 3 (+500)
- Round 4 (+850)
- Round 5 (+1400)
As I mentioned, this bet is purely about picking the winning round. If Stipe or Jones finishes the other inside of five rounds, then you will win this bet if you wager on the correct round.
A first-round finish is the favorite in this bet at +180 odds, and the odds fade with each round. The option with the longest odds in this wager is for a fifth-round finish (+1400) by either competitor.
Fight to Go the Distance
- Yes (+350)
- No (-500)
UFC fans can also bet specifically on whether Jones vs. Miocic will go the distance. BetUS has this fight favored to end inside of five rounds, with the “no” option in this wager listed at -500.
Jones is 10-0 in fights decided by decision, and Stipe is 5-1 when leaving the fight in the judges’ hands. Miocic’s only decision loss came against Junior dos Santos in December 2014.
A rested Stipe will be tough to put away, even for Jon Jones. Also, while Jones did submit Ciryl Gane at UFC 285, it was his first finish since 2018. Jones will win, but I do not think he will finish Stipe in this fight.
- Prediction: Jones vs. Miocic goes the distance +350
Points Handicap
- Jon Jones -5½ Points (-600)
- Stipe Miocic +5½ Points (+350)
Point spreads are not as popular in MMA betting as they are in other sports, but they are a great way to create value in fights like this one. Stipe is a massive underdog, and he is listed at +350 to cover a 5.5-point spread.
To cover, Stipe needs to win outright or at least lose by five points or fewer on the judges’ scorecards. The UFC uses a 10-9 scoring system, but fighters can receive less than nine points if they are truly dominated in a given round. I do not see that happening, and Stipe may even win a round or two, so I recommend betting on Miocic to cover.
- Prediction: Stipe Miocic +5.5 points +350
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds
- Over 2.5 Rounds (+120)
- Under 2.5 Rounds (-150)
Last but not least, BetUS also offers a traditional over/under rounds betting option for Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic. This fight is listed at over/under 2.5 rounds. It is a championship fight and a main event, so it can last up to five rounds.
The under option is the -150 favorite, and the over 2.5 rounds option is listed at +120. Stipe’s time away could impact his cardio, but Jones has also had a long time away from the Octagon. If either gets gassed early in the fight, this bout will be on the shorter side.
On the other hand, both Jones and Miocic have been successful UFC champions for long portions of their careers. So, I expect both fighters to be prepared for a long fight. With that in mind, I recommend taking the over on this total rounds prop.
- Prediction: Over 2.5 rounds +120
Which Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic Odds Will You Bet On?
The current Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic odds heavily favor the Jones ahead of this Saturday’s title fight. You can find the latest odds for this fight and my predictions in the guide above.
After reading my picks, sign up at BetUS to bet on the latest UFC 309 odds. This sportsbook has odds on every fight on this PPV, including the main event Heavyweight title fight between Jones and Miocic. There is also a special welcome bonus that offers a 125% deposit match on your first three deposits and 10% gambler’s insurance.
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