2024 Election Prop Betting Odds and Predictions
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Bettors are running out of time to take advantage of the 2024 election betting odds. The good news is that political sportsbooks offer exciting prop markets in the final days before the election.
This guide will detail the best election betting props at top political betting sites. I will tell you my favorite political props and give my predictions for each prop.
Bovada Sportsbook provided the following political betting props.
Popular 2024 Election Prop Bets
In addition to betting on the 2024 election winner, you can wager on political prop odds for election night. For instance, you can bet on the margin of victory in the electoral college and the tipping point state for the 2024 presidential election.
Electoral College Outcome
| Electoral College Win Margin | Trump Wins | Harris Wins |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 EC Votes | +4000 | +1000 |
| 5-14 EC Votes | +3000 | +1800 |
| 15-34 EC Votes | +1000 | +2000 |
| 35-64 EC Votes | +525 | +1200 |
| 65-104 EC Votes | +250 | +700 |
| 105-154 EC Votes | +650 | +3000 |
| 155-214 EC Votes | +2500 | +4000 |
| 215+ EC Votes | +5000 | +4000 |
There are 538 votes available in the Electoral College, and the first candidate to get 270 votes will win the election. One of the most popular 2024 election betting props is this market for the EC margin of victory.
The most likely outcome for either candidate is winning by a margin between 65 and 104 electoral votes. Trump is listed at +250, and Harris is available at +700 for this option. Bovada has a Trump victory by 35-64 votes (+525) or 105-154 votes (+650) as a more likely outcome than any Harris option in this prop bet.
A win by 65-104 votes sounds impossible for an election that is projected to be this close, but it is more likely than it seems. The seven swing states in this election account for 93 of the 538 votes available on election night. Either candidate would need to earn 302 or more electoral votes to win by 65 or more votes.
I think Harris will win by following a path similar to Biden’s in 2020. Biden finished with 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 232, a 74-vote margin. Considering that, I recommend betting on Harris to win by 65-104 votes (+700).
- Prediction: Kamala Harris wins Electoral College by 64-104 votes +700
Tipping Point State
- Pennsylvania (+200)
- Michigan (+375)
- Wisconsin (+500)
- North Carolina (+550)
- Georgia (+900)
- Arizona (+1200)
Six of the seven swing states in the 2024 election have 12-1 or better odds to be the tipping point state in this year’s election. For this bet, the tipping point state is defined as the state that puts the new president-elect over the 270 electoral vote threshold.
Pennsylvania, which has the most votes of any swing state, is the betting favorite at +200 odds in the latest political odds. Michigan has the second-best odds at +375, and the Wolverine State is closely followed by Wisconsin (+500) and North Carolina (+550). Georgia (+900) and Arizona (+1200) round out the top six.
The only swing state not listed in the top six is Nevada, tied with Florida at +2500. Four states, Texas, Minnesota, New Mexico, and New Hampshire, are tied for the ninth-best odds at +5000.
Whichever candidate wins Pennsylvania will most likely win the election, but that does not mean the Keystone State will put either candidate over 270 on election night. It was the tipping point in 2016, but that was only the third time since 1940 that Pennsylvania put a candidate over 270 votes.
Ohio, Colorado, and other midwestern states that are typically called later than Pennsylvania are more likely to be the tipping point state. Wisconsin was the tipping point state in 2020, and I think it will put Harris over 270 this year.
- Prediction: Wisconsin is the tipping point state +500
How Many Swing States Will Trump Win?
- 7 swing states (+400)
- 6 swing states (+550)
- 5 swing states (+500)
- 4 swing states (+500)
- 3 swing states (+650)
- 2 swing states (+950)
- 1 swing state (+950)
- No swing states (+425)
Bovada also has exciting Trump vs. Harris prop bets, such as how many swing states each candidate will win. Trump is listed at +400 to win all seven swing states, but, as I mentioned above, I do not think either candidate will win every swing state.
The “swing states” for this bet include Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona.
I believe Harris will sweep the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Also, Harris is my pick to win Nevada. That leaves just three swing states, North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia, for Trump to pick up.
- Prediction: Trump wins three swing states in the 2024 election +650
Unique Election Prop Bets for 2024
In addition to the props above, Bovada has unique 2024 election betting odds. You can bet on everything from future hires made by the next president to surprising state upsets on election night.
Kamala Harris to Defeat JD Vance (+5000)
One of the many unique wagers at Bovada for the 2024 election is for Kamala Harris to beat JD Vance, not Donald Trump, for the presidency. For this to happen, Trump must drop out of the race in the final hours and be replaced by Vance, his running mate.
Replacing a candidate in the days before the election would be unprecedented. It would also put the new candidate, in this case, Vance, at a massive disadvantage. Vance would also need to vet and confirm a running mate.
With just a few hours left before voting ends, it is unlikely that Vance will replace Trump at the top of the Republican ticket. As a result, this bet is listed at +5000 odds, and while it is unlikely, it could be worth a small bet if you are looking for a longshot prop for the election.
Kamala Harris to Win Texas and the Election (+920)
Another unique election prop bet available at Bovada is for Kamala Harris to flip Texas blue and win the election. Texas has not voted for a Democrat since 1976 when it went for Jimmy Carter.
In recent elections, the Lone Star state has slowly but surely moved toward being a purple state. Joe Biden earned 46.5% of the popular vote in 2020, the highest of any Democratic nominee since Carter won the state with 51.1% in 1976. If Harris did flip Texas and earn its 40 electoral votes, she would be just four votes away from winning the election.
On the other hand, Harris is listed at +900 to win Texas this election. Democrats will do better than expected this November, but I do not think they will flip Texas this election.
Presidential Appointment Prop Odds
| Attorney General | Secretary of State | Treasury Secretary | Chief of Staff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Lee (+225) | Richard Grenell (+275) | Robert Lighthizer (+175) | Brooke Rollins (-120) |
| John Ratcliffe (+350) | Jeff Flake (+350) | Lael Brainard (+425) | Cedric Richmond (+475) |
| Jeff Clark (+375) | Marco Rubio (+500) | Michael Bennett (+425) | Marty Walsh (+600) |
| Doug Jones (+425) | Mike Waltz (+550) | John Paulson (+450) | Kevin McCarthy (+900) |
| Roy Cooper (+425) | Robert C. O’Brien (+650) | Howard Lutnick (+700) | Susie Wiles (+900) |
| Catherine Cortez Masto (+850) | Bill Hagerty (+700) | Bill Hagerty (+1000) | Karen Dunn (+1500) |
You can also wager on key appointments the president-elect will make. Bovada offers odds for the next Attorney General, Secretary of State, Treasury Secretary, and Chief of Staff for the next president.
Trump is favored to win the 2024 election, and all of the favorites in these markets would be Trump appointees. However, I am picking Kamala Harris to win, and my predictions for this market are as follows:
- Attorney General – Doug Jones (+425)
- Secretary of State – Jeff Flake (+350)
- Treasury of Secretary – Lael Brainard (+425)
- Chief of Staff – Cedric Richmond (+475)
Will President Biden Pardon Donald Trump?
- Yes (+1500)
- No (-8000)
Bovada also has Trump-Biden prop bets that are still available. Biden is no longer the democratic nominee but will be President until the inauguration, regardless of who wins this week.
One of the Biden-Trump props still available is for Biden to pardon Trump for his federal crimes before the election. Biden is listed at +1500 to pardon Trump and -8000 not to pardon the former president. The “no pardon” option is a lock, but you must bet a substantial stake to get any value out of the -8000 odds.
What Are Your Favorite 2024 Election Betting Odds?
The final 2024 election betting odds are your last chance to bet on this year’s presidential election. Check out the guide above for the best-remaining prop betting markets you should bet on before Tuesday’s election.
After reading my predictions, make your predictions at Bovada Sportsbook. This sportsbook is one of the top sites for betting on various markets, including election betting props. It also offers up to $1,000 in bonus funds for political betting when you use the code BV1000 during your first deposit.
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