Donald Trump Sentence Odds: What Will Trump’s Sentence Be?
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There is still a major question remaining after recent verdicts against former President Donald Trump: What will Trump’s sentence be? Trump’s sentencing hearing is scheduled for later this summer, just days before the RNC.
Trump’s sentencing hearing could have huge implications for the November election. Top political betting sites have betting odds available for Trump’s sentence after being convicted in the hush money trial. Keep reading to see the latest odds and my free betting predictions for this political betting market.
When Will Trump Be Sentenced?
July 5 Update
Trump’s sentencing hearing for his New York convictions has been delayed until September. This is good news for political bettors because you have more time to wager at Bovada on the latest Trump sentencing odds.
| Potential Sentence | Trump Sentence Odds | Previous Odds |
| Fine | -10000 | -10000 |
| Probation | -2500 | -1500 |
| Home confinement | +225 | +300 |
| Community service | +300 | +300 |
| Electronic tag | +300 | +1200 |
| Incarceration | +400 | +400 |
Probation (-2500)
Trump’s most likely sentence is a fine, which remains the overwhelming favorite at -10000. A probation sentence has solidified itself as the second favorite after Trump’s sentencing hearing was postponed, shortening from -1500 to -2500 in the latest Trump sentencing odds.
Probation would easily go hand-in-hand with a hefty fine for the former President. Betting on the option now offers little value, though. On the other hand, it could be an interesting, relatively secure piece of a political odds parlay.
Home Confinement (+225)
Another potential sentence that has shortened in the current Trump punishment odds is for the former president to be assigned to home confinement. This bet was listed at +300 last month but is now available at +225 odds.
This punishment would be challenging to enforce, especially with Trump running a political campaign. It could be the best option for the former president to avoid jail time, though.
Electronic Tag (+300)
Trump’s odds of receiving an electronic tag have also increased. In this bet last month, he was listed at 12-1 odds to receive an ankle bracelet. Bovada now has this punishment listed at +300 odds.
House arrest enforced by an electronic tag would, in theory, still allow Trump to run his campaign. It would also still place some restrictions on the former president and limit his travel without Judge Juan Merchan having to send Trump to jail.
Trump Community Service Odds
Trump is still listed at 3-1 odds to be assigned community service. The big question is what Trump’s community service assignment will be.
| Community Service | Trump Sentence Odds | Previous Odds |
| No community service | -500 | -500 |
| Removing graffiti | +300 | +3000 |
| Helping people register to vote | +700 | +700 |
| Lecturing at Harvard Business School | +800 | N/A |
| Picking up trash | +800 | +800 |
| Homeless shelter | +1000 | +1000 |
| Animal shelter | +1200 | +1200 |
| Medical center | +1200 | +1200 |
| Immigration center | +1500 | +1500 |
| Delivering food to the elderly | +2000 | +2000 |
| Dementia charity | +2500 | +2500 |
| Work for the Clinton Foundation | +2500 | +8000 |
| Helping retired adult film actresses | +5000 | +5000 |
Removing Graffiti (+300)
The community service assignment that has improved the most in the latest Trump odds for this wager is removing graffiti. This option was listed at +3000 last month, and its odds have shortened dramatically to +300.
On one hand, removing graffiti can be tough work, especially for an elderly man in his late 70s. However, community service is not supposed to be enjoyable. If Trump is physically fit enough to perform the task, removing graffiti in public could be a suitable punishment for the 2024 GOP nominee.
Lecturing at Harvard Business School (+800)
One of the newest options available in this political prop wager is for Trump to have to lecture at Harvard Business School. This option was not available when this market was first opened. However, it is now listed at +800 in the latest Trump sentencing odds.
I see two major issues with this proposed community service punishment. First and foremost, I doubt the judge would or could assign Trump this punishment without the school’s consent. Also, Trump is hardly the titan of business he purports himself to be, so his lecture would not benefit the audience who listens to it.
Work for the Clinton Foundation (+2500)
Trump’s defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016 was one of the biggest political upsets in recent memory. The former president could be forced to work for his old rival if he is assigned to work at the Clinton Foundation. This option was listed at +8000 odds last month, but its odds have shortened to +2500.
It is unlikely that Judge Merchan would assign Trump to work for a specific foundation, especially a political one. The change in odds for this wager is something to keep an eye on, though. At +2500 odds, even a small wager would result in a huge payout if Trump is forced to work for the Clinton Foundation.
First things first, when will Trump be sentenced for the 34 convictions from his hush money trial? The sentencing hearing for this trial is set for July 11th, just four days before the RNC.
The hearing will also come after the first presidential debate. Trump and his legal team will have a chance to appeal the verdict, but that will not be an option until after the July 11th sentencing hearing. Sites like Bovada Sportsbook have exciting betting markets for Trump’s sentence in New York.
Trump Sentence Odds
- Fine (-10000)
- Probation (-1500)
- Community service (+300)
- Home confinement (+300)
- Incarceration (+400)
- Electronic tag (+1200)
Bovada has half a dozen betting options available for Trump’s sentence. Multiple options in this bet can be winners as long as they are included in the sentence.
The favorites are for Trump to be fined (-10000) and be assigned probation (-1500). As the odds imply, both options are nearly guaranteed to be a part of Trump’s punishment. Community service and home confinement are tied for the third-best odds at +300.
Incarceration and wearing an electronic tag are available at +400 and +1200, respectively. Bovada will also offer odds on other punishments upon request.
Fine (-10000)
A fine is the overwhelming favorite to be a part of the Trump sentence next month. This option is listed at -10000 in the latest odds at top-rated sports betting sites. Trump has been fined already for other legal cases this year, and he will almost assuredly be fined again for the 34 guilty verdicts in New York.
Prediction: Trump’s sentence includes a fine (-10000)
Probation (-1500)
Another heavy favorite to be included in Trump’s sentence is for the former President to be placed on probation. This is the easiest and most likely path for Trump to avoid jail time. Given the logistical difficulties of putting the Secret Service in jail with Trump, it is highly likely that he is assigned probation instead.
Prediction: Trump is sentenced to probation (-1500)
Community Service (+300)
There are two options tied at 3:1 odds to be included in Trump’s sentence related to the hush money rail. The first is for the GOP presidential candidate to be assigned community service.
Community service is vague, but that is good news for bettors in this wager. You do not need to wager on a specific type of community service. Given the nature of the crimes Trump was convicted of, giving back to the community would be a deserving punishment.
Prediction: Trump will be assigned community service (+300)
Home Confinement (+300)
Another option listed at +300 in this wager is for Trump to be sentenced to home confinement, better known as house arrest. The biggest question regarding this punishment is which home Trump would be confined to.
Trump also has other trials going on and a presidential campaign to run. Being assigned house arrest would affect both of those, but it is less restrictive than jail. On the other hand. Being confined to a mansion would hardly be a punishment.
Prediction: Trump will be sentenced to home confinement (+300)
Incarceration (+400)
The other option for confining Trump would be to send him to jail. Bovada has incarceration listed at +400 to be included as part of Trump’s hush money trial sentence. A Trump jail sentence is unlikely, but not out of the question.
For reference, Bovada has Trump listed at -400 to not serve jail time before the end of the year. Trump and his team will appeal the sentencing no matter what, so even if he is assigned jail time, there is no guarantee he will serve it before the end of the year.
The logistics of putting a former President and his accompanying Secret Service agents in jail would be challenging. Also, Trump is in his late 70s and has no prior criminal convictions. With that in mind, I do not think that Trump will be sentenced to jail for the hush money trial.
Prediction: Trump will not be sentenced to incarceration
Electronic Tag (+1200)
Another option in this prop wager is for Trump to have to wear an electronic tag. This option has the longest odds of any punishment in this betting market. It would be embarrassing and, in my opinion, unnecessary for the judge to assign this punishment.
Electronic tags, such as ankle bracelets, are typically assigned to convicts who are flight risks. Trump is too big of a public figure and in the middle of a presidential campaign. So, I do not think Trump will be forced to wear one.
Prediction: Trump will not be sentenced to wearing an electronic tag
What Will Trump’s Community Service Be?
As I mentioned above, Trump is listed at +300 to be sentenced to community service. Bovada has a special futures wager available related to that potential punishment. You can wager on the specific type of community service Trump is sentenced to.
| Community Service | Trump Sentence Odds |
| No community service | -500 |
| Helping people register to vote | +700 |
| Picking up trash | +800 |
| Homeless shelter | +1000 |
| Animal shelter | +1200 |
| Medical center | +1200 |
| Immigration center | +1500 |
| Delivering food to the elderly | +2000 |
| Dementia charity | +2500 |
| Removing graffiti | +3000 |
| Helping retired adult film actresses | +5000 |
| Work for the Clinton Foundation | +8000 |
No Community Service (-500)
The favorite in this wager is for Trump not to be assigned any community service. It is listed at -500, making it a heavy favorite. However, given the nature of this case, I do think that Trump will be assigned community service.
Trump’s age and status as a former president make many other punishments challenging to enforce. Community service would also be a more public form of punishment and hammer home the guilty verdict. Trump has not shown any remorse yet, and community service could help change his tone.
Helping People Register to Vote (+700)
The community service project with the best odds is for Trump to be assigned to help people register to vote. This option is available at +700 odds.
Trump could easily spin this punishment to his advantage. Many political candidates host registration events leading up to their respective elections. The Trump campaign would likely pick this punishment, and that could be the exact reason the judge does not assign it.
Picking Up Trash (+800)
Another option in this wager with relatively good odds is picking up trash (+800). Trash pickup is one of the most common community service projects in the US. If Trump is forced to complete his community service in New York, then there should be plenty of trash for him to pick up.
This project would also be easy to complete without jeopardizing the former President’s safety. His Secret Service agents could accompany Trump during his service hours with little to no issue.
It would make for an easy photo op for both the GOP and the Democrats. However, this project could be off the table given Trump’s age. Assigning a man in his late 70s to physical labor, even something as easy as trash pickup could be a bad look for the judge.
Homeless Shelter (+1000)
You can also wager that Trump will be sentenced to serve his community service hours working at a homeless shelter (+1000). Other similar options, such as working at an animal shelter (+1200) or an immigration center (+1500), are also available.
All of these assignments share one major flaw: they could compromise Trump’s safety. Specifically, assigning Trump to voluntary at these organizations would create a huge headache for the Secret Service.
Trump Community Service Prediction
Of all the options in the table above, I believe Trump being assigned to pick up trash (+800) makes the most sense. Trump has not acted as remorseful as you would expect, and I think the judge will attempt to humble him with his community service assignment.
Prediction: Trump is assigned trash pickup as his community service (+800)
What Are Your Trump Sentence Predictions?
The recent verdict in Trump’s hush money trial has already started to affect political betting markets. Trump’s sentence for the verdict is still over a month away, as his sentencing hearing is scheduled for July 11th.
You can wager on the upcoming Trump sentence in New York. Check out the lists above to see the latest odds on Trump’s potential sentences. Then, sign up for an account at a site like Bovada to wager on the latest political odds.
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