• Belmont Stakes

Belmont Stakes Trends and Fastest Times to Improve Your Betting Outlook

The country’s finest three-year-olds will descend upon New York to battle for glory in the 2024 Belmont Stakes on June 8.

Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan and Preakness winner Seize the Grey have both been confirmed for the 1¹⁄₄ mile race. However, the early favorites are Sierra Leone and Fierceness, who both excelled earlier this season.

We have delved into the history books to uncover some key trends, which can help you make your Belmont Stakes picks this year.

Belmont Stakes Trends

The 156^th Belmont Stakes will take place at Saratoga Race Course in New York, as Belmont Park is currently undergoing renovations.

The Belmont is typically run over a distance of 1¹⁄₂ miles, so it is dubbed “the test of the champion.” However, this year’s race will take place over a shorter distance of 1¹⁄₄ miles, which is the same length as the Kentucky Derby.

It will be important to consider the shorter distance and the change of venue when analyzing historical Belmont Stakes trends.

Belmont Stakes Post Position Trends

• Post 1 has been the most successful in Belmont stakes history, delivering 24 winners since 1904. The most recent winner from Post 1 was Justify in 2018. However, Tapit Shoes, who was assigned Post 1 in 2023, finished dead last.
• Post 3 has produced 16 winners apiece since 1904, including last year’s winner, Arcangelo.
• Post 5 is the third-most successful, having yielded 15 winners since 1904, ahead of Post 7 (14 wins), Post 2 (13 wins) and Post 6 (9 wins).

Many Belmont Winners Go Straight from Kentucky to New York

• Just three of the past 20 winners of the Belmont competed in the Preakness: Afleet Alex (2005), American Pharaoh (2015) and Justify (2018). American Pharaoh and Justify both won the Triple Crown.
• However, 13 of the past 20 Belmont Stakes winners ran in the Kentucky Derby. Ten of those 13 winners did not race between the Derby and the Belmont, so they were fresh when they arrived in New York. The only exceptions were Afleet Alex, American Pharaoh and Justify.

Belmont Stakes Favorites Trends

• Favorites have a strong recent record in this race. In the past 10 years, the favorite has won five times and finished second three times.
• However, favorites have only won six of the past 20 Belmont Stakes, and eight of the last 20 winners opened with double-digit odds.
• The biggest underdog to win the Belmont Stakes in recent years was Creator in 2016, who paid $16.40 on a $1 win bet.
• Each of the past 10 winners had won at least once in their previous three races prior to the Belmont Stakes.
• Eight of the last 10 Belmont winners had already clinched a graded stakes victory.

Best Trainers and Jockeys in the Belmont

• Todd Pletcher is the most successful trainer in this race over the past decade, with two wins and nine places from 21 runners. He will be represented by Fierceness and Antiquarian this year.
• Bob Baffert has an even better record. He has only sent four horses to the Belmont in the past 10 years, with two wins and two places. However, he will not compete this year, as the New York Racing Association has suspended him.
• Irad Ortiz Jr. has been the most successful jockey, with two wins and five places from eight stars in the past 10 years. Joel Rosario also has two wins and four places from nine starts.

These Fastest Belmont Stakes Times Can Improve Your Betting Outlook

The inaugural Belmont Stakes took place at Jerome Park in the Bronx back in 1867. The race has been run over several different distances since then. These are the fastest winning times at each distance:

• 2:24.00 – Secretariat (1973; 1¹⁄₂ miles).
• 2:14.20 – Man o’ War (1920; 1³⁄₈ miles)
• 2:56.00 – Harry Bassett (1871; 1⁵⁄₈ miles)
• 1:46.53 – Tiz the Law (2020; 1¹⁄₈ miles)
• 2:06.60 – Delhi (1904; 1¹⁄₄ miles)

Tiz the Law’s winning time of 1:46.53 sounds impressive. However, the race was run over a shorter distance of 1¹⁄₈ miles in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The Belmont usually takes place over 1¹⁄₂ miles nowadays, and no horse has come close to beating Secretariat’s time. This year’s race will be run over 1¹⁄₄ miles, and the winner could eclipse Delhi’s 1904 time of 2:06.00.

These are the recent speed trends:

• Twelve of the last 15 winners have been within 4¹⁄₂ lengths of the leader after the opening half-mile of the Belmont, so this race has recently favored pacesetters and stalkers.
• Only two Belmont winners in the past 15 years were in the back half of the field after half a mile: Creator in 2016 and Sir Winston in 2019.
• Twelve of the last 15 winners ran the first half-mile in less than 49 seconds.
• This race typically requires a great deal of stamina. Thirteen of the last 15 Belmont Stakes winners were sired by thoroughbreds that had won Grade 1 races at a distance of at least 1¹⁄₈ miles. Last year, Forte almost bucked that trend, but he ultimately finished second, 1¹⁄₂ lengths behind Arcangelo.

Belmont Stakes 2024 Odds

The leading online racebooks have already released their 2024 Belmont Stakes odds. These are fixed-odds futures, so you know exactly how much you stand to win if your chosen horse prevails. As you can see, BetUS is offering market leading odds on several runners, whereas BetOnline stands out by providing the best prices on some of the longer shots.

Horse	BetOnline	BetUS	MyBookie
Sierra Leone	+220	+225	+200
Seize the Grey	+550	+650	+550
Mystik Dan	+1200	+1200	+800
Thorpedo Anna	+1200	+1000	+900
Honor Marie	+1200	+1200	+1200
Antiquarian	+1200	+1600	+1200
Catching Freedom	+1400	+1200	+1400
Dornoch	+2000	+2000	+2000
The Wine Steward	+2200	+1900	+2200
Batten Down	+2800	+2000	+2500

How to Handicap the Belmont Stakes

The usual method of handicapping the Belmont Stakes has to be ripped up this year, due to the shorter distance and the move to Saratoga.

Instead, it is worth considering how well each runner performed over the same distance at the Kentucky Derby. Mystik Dan was the surprise winner of that race, as he got the better of Sierra Leone and Forever Young in a three-way photo finish.

Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness runner-up Mystik Dan on track to run in the Belmont at Saratoga https://t.co/ZjfEfInebV

— WNKY News 40 (@wnkytv) May 31, 2024

Mystik Dan’s bid to win the Triple Crown ended at Pimlico, when he finished second in the Preakness Stakes, 2¹⁄₄ lengths behind Seize the Grey. However, that race takes place over 1³⁄₁₆ miles, and he could relish the opportunity to return to a shorter distance.

However, there is a compelling case to be made for Sierra Leone to win the 2024 Belmont Stakes. He was neck-and-neck with Mystik Dan in the Derby, and he has not raced since then, so he will be fresh, and he could win the rematch on June 8.

Belmont Stakes Picks

A bet on Sierra Leone to win the Belmont at odds of +225 with BetUS looks attractive. He beat elite rivals such as Catching Freedom and Honor Marie to win the G2 Risen Star Stakes in February, and he then won the G1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 6.

Sierra Leone was unlucky to finish second in the Kentucky Derby, as he was only a nose behind Mystik Dan. He will have had five weeks to recuperate, and he should be raring to go by the time he lines up for the Belmont Stakes.

Catching Freedom was fourth in the Derby, 1³⁄₄ lengths behind Mystik Dan, and he then finished third in the Preakness. He has two wins and two places from five starts this year, so he could be an interesting long-shot if you are looking for a show bet on the Belmont Stakes.